2018 Draft Board: Offensive Backfield

You know how you look back on something somebody else did and go “well I wouldn’t have done that cause look how it turned out for you” and then somebody else makes a comment about the value of hindsight? That’s not what this is. I didn’t give myself the chance to use hindsight to make decisions on who I would remove from my draft board. Instead, I used the exact same factors and table that I used for the 2020 draft class to determine which players would have been off my draft board in 2018, and the round grades I would’ve given the rest of the players. The results you’ll see below are for the Quarterbacks and Running Backs. At the end of this season I will take their 3 years of statistics and determine who has currently found success as a pro and who hasn’t. I will update that yearly because things happen and I want to keep my factors and table as up to date as possible, but I will reassess 5 years from now to get a relatively final verdict that I'll post. This article is my way of being transparent, before the first three years end.

2018 QBs removed from my board:

I was able to eliminate seven players. Players eliminated from my draft board were split into two categories: Empty and Depleted. “Empty” are players who had factors that led to a 0% success rate for pros drafted at their position from 2008-2017. “Depleted” are players who had factors that significantly decreased the success rate of pros drafted at their position from 2008-2017. Below you will see an 'E' or a 'D' next to each name, the 'E' signifies “empty”, the 'D' signifies “depleted.” They are:

Kurt Benkert (E)

Tanner Lee (E)

Austin Allen (D)

Chase Litton (D)

Danny Etling (D)

Josh Allen (D)

My QB Draft Board

Players College Round Grade Round Selected In
Bake Mayfield Oklahoma First First
Lamar Jackson Louisville First-Second First
Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State First-Second Third
Sam Darnold USC Second-Third First
Josh Rosen UCLA Second-Third First
Logan Woodside Toledo Second-Third Seventh
Kyle Lauletta Richmond Third-Fifth Fourth
J.T. Barrett Ohio State Third-Fifth Undrafted
Quinton Flowers South Florida Fourth-Sixth Undrafted
Riley Ferguson Memphis Fourth-Sixth Undrafted
Luke Falk Washington State Fifth-Seventh Sixth
Nic Shimonek Texas Tech Fifth-Seventh Undrafted
Mike White Miami Seventh-Undrafted Fifth

2018 RBs removed from my board:

I was able to eliminate seven players. Below you will see an 'E' or a 'D' next to each name, the 'E' signifies “empty”, the 'D' signifies “depleted.” They are:

Darrel Williams (E)

Demario Richard (E)

Kamryn Pettway (E)

Nyheim Hines (E)

Chris Warren (D)

Justin Crawford (D)

Kyle Hicks (D)

Lavon Coleman (D)

Mark Walton (D)

My RB Draft Board

Players College Round Grade Round Selected In
Saquon Barkley Penn State First First
Rashaad Penny San Diego State First-Second First
Sony Michel Georgia First-Second First
Chase Edmonds Fordham Second-Third Fourth
Kerryon Johnson Auburn Second-Third Second
Nick Chubb Georgia Second-Third Second
Ronald Jones USC Third-Fifth Second
Ankrum Wadley Iowa Third-Fifth Undrafted
Derrius Guice LSU Third-Fifth Second
Royce Freeman Oregon Fourth-Sixth Third
Bo Scarbrough Alabama Fifth-Seventh Seventh
Jaylen Samuels North Carolina State Fifth-Seventh Fifth
Jordan Wilkins Ole Miss Fifth-Seventh Fifth
Josh Adams Notre Dame Fifth-Seventh Undrafted
Justin Jackson Northwestern Fifth-Seventh Seventh
Kalen Ballage Arizona State Fifth-Seventh Fourth
Jeff Wilson North Texas Seventh-Undrafted Undrafted
Roc Thomas Florida State Seventh-Undrafted Undrafted
Ryan Nall Oregon State Seventh-Undrafted Undrafted
Jarvion Franklin Western Michigan Seventh-Undrafted Undrafted
John Kelly Tennessee Seventh-Undrafted Sixth