2018 Draft Board Review: Cornerbacks

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous articles you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My CB Draft Board

Carlton Davis- You want to talk about a complete 180, let’s discuss Davis. The Bucs invested a decent amount of draft capital into the position from 2016 to 2018, including taking Davis and M.J. Stewart in the second round of the 2018 draft. After year 1 it looked like the Bucs had wasted two more picks. Then along came Todd Bowles who managed to completely change Davis’ career trajectory. Davis has posted 37, read that again, 37(!) total pass deflections in the last two years. He was also a key contributor on that defense that helped Tampa win last season’s Super Bowl.

Denzel Ward- A lot of people were shocked and disappointed that the Browns selected Ward over Bradley Chubb, but it’s looked like the right move so far. Ward has turned into one of the top Corners in the league when he’s been on the field and he’s still growing. He needs to find a way to stay on the field (11 missed games in his three seasons), but he’s done enough when healthy to warrant the B grade.

Donte Jackson- Jackson becomes the third member of the group that was eliminated from my draft board with a depleted designation to have received a grade. He beat the odds as well (2.2% chance of success). Carolina let Bradberry walk last offseason and I have to believe their reasoning for doing so was that they had Jackson waiting in the wings to take over the CB1 role (also, money). We’ll see if Jackson holds onto that CB1 spot, or if Carolina’s first round pick, Jaycee Horn, takes over the role.

Jaire Alexander- It’s no secret that Alexander is already one of the top Corners in the league. This is one I have to eat crow on, because back in 2018 I was not a fan of this pick. I thought his college production was on the below average side and his frame was going to result in bodily harm. Man was I wrong, thankfully the draft board project didn’t side with 2018 me on that. Now if only I could convince him not to stay in Green Bay long term, perhaps instead make a jump over to Minnesota...

J.C. Jackson- Here are Jackson’s stats in order from 2018-2020, let’s see if we can determine which direction his career is currently heading: 3 ints, 6 deflections; 5 ints, 10 deflections; 9 ints, 14 deflections. Ok, that’s not entirely fair because matching what he did in 2020 is going to be darn near impossible, but you get my point. For an undrafted player, Jackson has already had an incredible career, regardless of how the rest of it plays out.

Isaiah Oliver- Good news for the Falcons, Oliver isn’t afraid to make tackles. Bad news for the Falcons, he doesn’t have much of a ballhawking ability (1 interception in his 3 seasons). Luckily for him and for them he shouldn’t have to be their CB1, as last year’s first round pick (A.J. Terrell) looks like he’ll hold down that spot. I don’t see him having a long starting career, and if I’m right he’ll no longer have a grade by the time the 6th year review roles around.

Avonte Maddox, Darius Phillips, Levi Wallace, and Taron Johnson- Each of them came relatively close to receiving a grade, but there isn’t anything about their play to date that suggest they’re bound for bigger things. They could very well take off over the next three years. There’s also a chance that their production is being held up by significant playing time because their team’s have failed to better address the position, which would result in them petering out over the next three years.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-secondary/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-secondary/