2018 Draft Board Review: Linebackers

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous articles you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My LB Draft Board

Darius Leonard- I know there were some people who were believers in Leonard prior to the 2018 draft; I was not one of them. I didn’t have anything against him, I just didn’t know enough about him to name drop him as a sneaky good Linebacker pick. It’s three years later though and he is the only LB from this class with an A so far.

Roquan Smith- Smith is coming off his best season to date and should only get scarier. Not only should he remain towards the top of his position in this class and in the league as a whole, he should continue to be a DPOY candidate each year.

Fred Warner- Smith and Warner were both borderline A’s. Not bad for a guy selected in the third round after the likes of Edmunds and Vander Esch. I do realize he has the same B grade as Edmunds, but Edmunds was not as close to receiving an A as Warner was. He’s been one of the lesser publicized monsters in that San Fran defense, but if he continues to average over 120 total tackles a season while making plays in coverage, he’ll become one of the bigger names on that loaded unit.

Tremaine Edmunds- The Bills landed Allen and Edmunds in this draft and both have worked out very well for them. Edmunds may not be at where Leonard and Warner (both selected after him) are yet, but he has all the tools to get there and he’ll have just turned 23 by the time the 2021 season kicks off.

Jerome Baker- Baker may be the most surprising B on this list, but if you look at what he’s done for Miami you’ll understand how he got here. Last year, Miami’s defense took off and Baker was a big reason why. Not only did he post over 100 total tackles, he also made his impact felt by getting after opposing Quarterbacks (7 sacks), that’s not something you see often from off ball Linebackers.

Leighton Vander Esch- After his fantastic rookie season Vander Esch has basically fallen flat on his face. Back in 2018 I thought this was a ridiculous pick because Vander Esch had suffered a neck injury in college, which is always a tough thing to avoid in future years. And now here we are, three seasons into his career and he’s missed 13 games in the last two years with one of those injuries being neck related. It’s not looking good for Vander Esch’s career longevity.

Rashaan Evans- Evans was the other first-round Linebacker, and so far in his career he hasn’t done anything to warrant his lofty selection. Definitely one of those picks the Titans wish they could have back so they could go with a guy like Leonard or Warner.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-front-seven/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-front-seven/