2018 Draft Board Review: Offensive Tackles

No fair warning this time because the Offensive Lineman are handled so differently from every other position. There aren’t stats that you can easily find associated with individual Lineman, so coming out of college they receive their PSR (in case you’ve missed that reference in the previous articles you’ll see more on that below) based solely off their Combine performances. And as pros they receive their grade based on four factors, which I’ll also cover below. This was strictly to draw your attention to needing to read through this area before you dive in below if you want to better understand how I evaluate the O-Line.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using their Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys, this does apply to OT’s, but not to Guards and Centers.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

NOW in order for a member of the O-Line class to receive a grade they needed to fill the requirements in a combination of four areas: Average number of games started, Seasons played, Pro Bowl invites, All-Pro First Team recognition.

In order to get an A they needed to average 12 or more games started, have played all three seasons, and have an All-Pro First Team nod. That last little caveat makes it difficult to receive an A, but making the AP first team means you really are the cream of the crop. The average games started and seasons played apply to all three grades. The games portion is because if you really aren’t that good no team is going to keep you in as the starter for an average of 12 games unless there’s been a series of injuries in front of you, at some point they will realize you are dragging the team down and bench or cut you. The season portion is because you may hit that average games started for one season and then get cut and never play for another team again because the team that started you that one season was just that desperate. So your total number of seasons played in must be equal to the number of seasons you’ve been a pro until you hit your 7th season. 7 because that’s a solid number of years to have stuck around the NFL, so after you’ve hit 7 seasons played in, you fulfill that requirement regardless. To get a C you only need to average 12 games started and hit the season requirement. To get a B you need to meet both of those requirements as well as have at least 1 Pro Bowl nod. The Pro Bowl is not on the same playing field as the AP First Team, but it does mean that your fans like you, so you’re probably doing something right.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My OT Draft Board

Orlando Brown- Brown destroyed everything. He had potentially the worst Combine performance by an Offensive Lineman ever. His draft stock tanked because of it and he was given the “empty” label on my board. But somehow he’s managed to be the only player above a C from this class. Thanks to him there is now only 1 negative factor an Offensive Tackle can have that has led to a 0% chance of success as a pro. He is now out of Baltimore and with K.C. because he feels more comfortable as a Left Tackle, let’s see if he can make that work long term.

Brian O’Neill- O’Neill has been the best Lineman the Vikings have across all three seasons he’s been in the league, I’ll fight someone on that statement. He should at the very least hold down the C grade. I’d love to say that he’ll make the jump to a B or an A, but it’s not easy for Right Tackles to get the recognition they deserve when it comes to the Pro Bowl, and he faces stiff competition when it comes to the AP team.

Kolton Miller- If you watched a Raiders game this past season you can understand why Miller has received his C. The unit as a whole allowed just 28 sacks and Carr had his best season since 2016. Miller has a bright future ahead of him.

Mike McGlinchey- He’s been better than his PSR would’ve suggested, but like O’Neill, he’s going to have a hard time getting major recognition because he plays Right Tackle. At least for him San Fran is built to be a contender for the next few years (barring another injury riddled season), that should allow him to get lots of time in the spotlight.

Braden Smith- Smith should have been moved over to the Interior O-Line board, because based on his arm length he shouldn’t have been able to make it as a Tackle. But so far he has been a stalwart for the Colts on their right side. He’s the first from 2009-2018 to succeed as an Offensive Tackle despite having an arm length measurement below 33.25”.

Chukwuma Okorafor- Okorafor looks like he’s in line to see a significant uptick in being a starter. Pitt looks like they are prepared to let Alejandro Villanueva leave in free agency mostly because they need the cap space. If that happens Okorafor should get a chance to compete for a starting job at both Tackle spots.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-offensive-line/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-offensive-lineman/