2018 Draft Board Review: Quarterbacks

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players that have a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

That was long winded, so fair warning, if you check out my other “review” articles to follow this one, the opening paragraphs will all be the same. Here is the good stuff:

The Table

My QB Draft Board

Josh Allen - I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong on every account when it comes to Allen or at least I am so far. He’s trended in the right direction in every year since he entered the league and he made a massive leap this past season, so it’s difficult to see him going anywhere but up. Back in 2018, before I did this project, I had said I wouldn’t touch Allen with a 10 foot pole. He received the depleted designation in this project, but he beat the slim odds (6.4% chance of success with the negative factor he had) and came out on top. There are seven statistical categories I look at for Quarterbacks, that’s 3 to 4 more than any other position. I also divvy them up with what it takes to get an A and what it takes to get a C (the B grade is given when you hit a certain number of A’s and C’s combined). To get an A you have to hit every category at the A level and Allen has.

Lamar Jackson- Oddly enough, when I was ragging on Allen back in 2018 I was also hyping up Jackson and so far that one has turned out pretty well. His play in the playoffs aside, Jackson has been a monster. If he can continue to improve his ability to read through his progressions he should have a long career. Like Allen he also hit every category at an A level. Perhaps the more impressive part is that Jackson has done it in basically two and a half seasons of play (His first 9 games as a rookie came as a gadget player before they finally benched Flacco for him).

Baker Mayfield- Mayfield was the highest QB on my list back in 2018 and he remained the highest QB on my list after giving everyone a PSR. After his second season as a pro Mayfield was teetering on the line of not receiving a grade, but thanks to a really solid 2020 season he managed a B and is relatively close to making that an A. If he can continue down this path he’ll get it, and I think Kevin Stefanski can help him get there.

Sam Darnold- I’m really hoping there isn’t anyone out there actually questioning why Darnold didn’t receive a grade, but I wanted to address it just in case. In his three seasons he’s had one year with a completion percentage above 60, one year with over 3,000 yards passing (significant since he’s not a runner), and one year with a QBR above 80. He’s never had a winning season, never finished above 7 yards/attempt, and his best TD/INT ratio is 1.46/1 (that’s not good). I’m hopeful the change of scenery will help him hit his potential, but three seasons in it has not been pretty.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-offensive-backfield-2/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-offensive-backfield/