2018 Draft Board Review: Running Backs

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous article you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My RB Draft Board

Nick Chubb- Chubb has been a beast on the field and it shows in his stats sheet. He’s currently averaging over 5 yards a carry (that’s very impressive), has had over 1,000 total yards in each of his three seasons and last year he hit double-digit rushing touchdowns on just 190 carries. He has been the best back from this draft class. The Browns seem to love him, and love using him, and we should see him continue on this path barring unforeseen circumstances.

Saquon Barkley- This is a statement on just how good his rookie season was. He played in all of two games this last year and still managed an A after year 3. Outside of his OROY season back in 2018, it’s important to keep in mind that, while his 2019 season was disappointing, he still managed nearly 1500 total yards and 8 touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see where he’s at after year 6. Will the injuries destroy his career? Or will he get back to being the dominant player he was back in 2018?

Ronald Jones- A decent second season followed up by his solid third year really made up for that no-show rookie season. He pushed himself to a C and if the Bucs plan to keep on using him he should be able to keep improving, especially in that loaded offense.

Sony Michel- Michel is trending the wrong direction. Had his third season been on par with his first two he would have been at the very least a B, but his injury riddled third season that featured poor play when he was on the field dropped him to a C and has him looking like he may drop out completely.

Nyheim Hines- Hines is the player that didn’t receive a grade who was closest to getting a C. Had he been used more in his second season (like 150 yards and 2 touchdowns more) he would have received a grade. With his current trajectory and the love his coaching staff has for him he should have a grade by the time we look at this again in three years, which means he could be the first to break through the factor that led to him receiving the “empty” label.

Chase Edmonds- Edmonds had a solid third season and as long as the Cardinals continue to use him in a 1a-1b backfield he has the next best chance of receiving a grade by the end of year 6. It was the usage and production he had from his first two seasons that significantly impacted his chance for receiving a grade now.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-offensive-backfield-2/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-offensive-backfield/