2018 Draft Board Review: Safeties

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous articles you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My Safety Draft Board

Jessie Bates- I remember before this draft took place there was a lot of hype surrounding Bates, who I didn’t know much about, but I was still like “ya, I’ll believe it when I see it.” Well I believe it now. Bates has been phenomenal, and if he were on a better team he’d be receiving a lot more recognition for his accomplishments. No disrespect to Fitzpatrick, who also received an A, but Bates has been better in just about every aspect and he hasn’t had the benefit of playing on a loaded Steelers defense for half his career.

Minkah Fitzpatrick- Now onto Fitzpatrick who did well his rookie season, but his career has really taken off since he landed in Pitt. Last season he was even getting some DPOY buzz. He does play on a defense that features T.J. Watt and Devin Bush, but that doesn’t mean Fitzpatrick isn’t a premier player at his position, I just think what Bates has done has been more impressive.

Derwin James- If not for the injuries James would also be sitting at an A. I mean, despite the injuries he has a B, that’s pretty solid. If he can stay on the field, he, Fitzpatrick and Bates will be battling it out in the “who’s the best Safety” conversations among children for years to come.

Justin Reid- For all the faulty selections and pickups that O’Brien made while in Houston, especially in the secondary, Reid has been an absolute gem. He was the first pick the Texans made that year, all the way down in the third round, and he’s one of the steals of the 2018 draft. I remember trying to figure out why Reid had slid as far as he did back when the draft was happening. The only reasons I could come up with, back then and now, is that there has been a devaluing of the Safety position as a whole lately and the top of this Safety class was loaded. But, I am about to cover part of that here in two names.

Jordan Whitehead- Another relative hit by the Bucs in the secondary from this draft. Whitehead isn’t a premier Safety, but he’s been a welcomed stable addition on the back end. That was something Tampa desperately needed back then and the fourth round was a heck of a spot to land that in.

Terrell Edmunds- Edmunds was one of a few picks that made me go, “wait, what did he just say?” as the commissioner made the announcement. It’s three years later and I still don’t get it. Back then I felt like Pitt had other needs, and if they really wanted to go Safety they should’ve taken Reid. That still holds up today. Maybe Edmunds will take off in his next three years, but I think mediocre will be the term most associated with his career.

Tre Flowers- Flowers has not been Seattle’s newest version of Kam Chancellor, and by that I mean a day three Safety selection who turns into an absolute star, but he’s been decent enough. He does have a C grade after all. But, after his 2020 season I’m not so sure he’ll hang onto that grade three years from now. This is still one of those positions that Seattle needs to better address.

Ronnie Harrison- He’s the only guy who didn’t receive a grade who’s potential playing time could lead to a grade. I don’t think he’s a game changer at the position, but he’s the kind of Safety who could stick around as a starter in the league long term because he’s good enough to play and there are team’s that would rather start a “good enough” player than spend major capital on the position. So, the volume could push Harrison to a C.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-secondary/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-secondary/