2018 Draft Board Review: Tight Ends

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous articles you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My TE Draft Board

Mark Andrews- Andrews is the second player in these articles who was off my draft board with a depleted designation, but finished his first three years having done enough to receive a grade. Like Josh Allen, Andrews beat the odds (3.1% chance of success with the negative factor he had). Unlike Allen, Andrews has been the unquestioned best player at his position from this draft class. Side note, back in 2018 I was a huge fan of Andrews, I thought he was going to be great as a pro and much better than Hurst who I felt was a waste of a first round pick by Baltimore. Doing this project two years later is what shifted those Andrews and Hurst views around.

Dallas Goedert- Goedert drew the short straw when the Eagles, who already had a premiere Tight End in Ertz, took him before their rivals (Dallas) could get their Tight End needy hands on him. Philly was playing chess. It’s worked out decently well for both parties so far, as Goedert is definitely one of the budding players at his position. If the Eagles do in fact move on from Ertz before the start of this season, then Goedert should continue to improve his grade.

Mike Gesicki- The athletic freak had a rough rookie season, but that’s to be expected from this position (it’s considered one of the hardest to transition to in the pros). It also doesn’t help when your QB play is basically non-existent. But then Brian Flores and Ryan Fitzpatrick came to town in 2019, and Tagovailoa was added in 2020 and Gesicki has made big improvements in back to back seasons. There’s still some left to be desired, but it feels to me like he’s making jumps toward being one of the best Tight Ends in the league.

Hayden Hurst- Hurst had a very good first year in Atlanta and then the Falcons went out and drafted Kyle Pitts. I think we’ll see a lot of Pitts split out wide with Hurst manning the traditional Tight Ends spot, which will help keep Hurst from falling farther behind. He didn’t receive a grade yet because statistically he was hindered after having to sit behind Andrews in Baltimore for two seasons.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-pass-catchers-2/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-pass-catchers/