2018 Draft Board Review: Wide Receivers

FAIR WARNING: To those who read my previous articles you can skip over this first section and head straight down to the Table.

Prior to the 2020 draft season I started working on my draft board project. Using college production and Combine test results I found “factors” that determined if a player was likely to fail as a pro, and sometimes those factors were a guarantee of failure. There were also a very small amount that were good factors, the ones that had led to 100% success rate in the decade of players that had come before these guys.

The other part of the project was what I’ve now started to call the PSR or Percent Success Rate. This started out as me looking at the players who had been drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds in the decade previous and comparing their factors to those who had gone in the 4th round or lower (or undrafted). But I realized that was the wrong way of looking at it. So shortly after last season kicked off I created the PSR, which looks at the players who have found success as pros compared to those who have not. I break that down by each individual college statistic and Combine result to give a percentage in three categories- Great, Average and Awful. Depending on where a player fell in those three categories determined what percentage they were given for that stat. Then, all of the percentages for that player were added up and divided by the number of stat categories they had, giving them a PSR. As long as they didn’t have a factor on the negative side of the equation as mentioned in the first paragraph above, that PSR was used to determine a round range that I would consider drafting them in.

I decided that three years as a pro would be when the players would become a part of the statistics I was using, and that’s when I would write a review to see how my draft boards held up. But, I’m a little impatient. I didn’t want to wait until after the 2022 season to see how this was going, so I applied what I found to the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. This is the first look at the 2018 draft class. I will do a 6 year review, and one final look after their 10th season.

Now to what you will see below. First you’ll see a table with each of the players I had listed in my previous 2018 draft board articles. There will be a PSR section, for the players with a number you’ll already know what that number represents, but there will also be players with a D or an E. The D stands for Depleted, those were players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a very slim chance of success. The E stands for Empty, those were the players who were removed from my original draft board because they had a factor that led to a 0% success rate. There will also be a “Grade” section. Based on their production as a Pro they’ve been given an A, B, C, I or N/A. The A, B and C are good to have, it means they did enough to warrant receiving a grade, with A being the best you can possibly get just like in grade school. The I is for players who would have received an A, B or C had it not been for a serious injury suffered. And the N/A means not applicable, it’s for players who didn’t have the statistics to warrant receiving a grade. Keep in mind that this is just the first three years of their careers and we could see a dramatic shift when we check on this again in year 6.

Below the table you will see an explanation for each player who has received a grade, and potentially an explanation for a few players that you may think should have received a grade, but didn’t. And I will include below that section the links to the previous articles that relate to this one.

The Table

My WR Draft Board

Calvin Ridley- Ridley stands alone with his A. There are plenty of reasons you can give as to why, I mean when you have Julio Jones on the opposite end of the field and Matt Ryan under Center you should be able to dominate. But it’s hard to deny Ridley’s skill on the field, without Jones I still think he finds himself with at least a B.

D.J. Moore- Moore has been racking up the yardage the last two seasons as he’s really started to come into his own. The C is because touchdowns also count toward a Receivers grade, and that’s not something he gets much of (4 is his single season career high to date). If he can get long term stability under Center we should see Moore jump up and join Ridley at the top of this class.

Michael Gallup- After his very impressive second season the Cowboys did a solid job of stunting his growth. No, I’m not blaming Prescott’s season ending injury on Dallas’ front office, I’m blaming them for using their first round pick to address an area of strength (Receiving corps) instead of an area that needed help (O-Line or their entire defense). After Prescott went down the QB play was hit and miss which led to a battle for targets between Gallup (843 yards, 5 tds), Amari Cooper (1,114 yards, 5 tds) and CeeDee lamb (935 yards, 5 tds). With Prescott healthy Gallup should definitely be able to catapult his grade higher.

Courtland Sutton- Sutton is the first (and I think only) player in this class to receive an I. He jumped from 704 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie to 1,112 and 6 touchdowns in his second year. Everyone expected another leap in year 3, but that torn ACL had other plans. Even a third of what he did in year two would have gotten him to a C, so it’s safe to say he deserves the “I” grade.

Guys on the rise- There is a decent group of names that you may notice did not receive a grade, these guys were just on the edge. For the most part they missed out because they spent their rookie seasons (and possibly second seasons) adjusting to the pros. For a couple, they dealt with sporadic play, whether it was their own play or their Quarterback’s play. The guys that fit in this group are D.J. Chark, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. All four are guys who could have a grade next to their name after year 6.

Link to the Draft Board Article: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2018-draft-board-pass-catchers-2/

Link to the Article that listed the Removed Players: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/2018-draft-board-pass-catchers/