2020 Draft Board: Running Backs

**Note: changes have been made since the draft happened. I spent May and June adjusting my process by setting strict parameters and adding all combine participants from 2008-2017. Those two improvements caused major changes to my factors and table, which means some players that were on my draft board have been removed, some players that were removed from my draft board have been put back on it, and some players have seen a drastic shift in the round grades they were originally given.

Continuing my Draft Board next we look at the Running Backs. I think the biggest surprise when I was going through this position was the lack of a major factor. The Successful pros weren’t all that different from the unsuccessful pros. At least the ones that were taken in the first three rounds. As far as the prospects available in this draft, I’m not really all that impressed. We’ll see how it all plays out. There is only one Back that I really like, and it’s probably not who you think. Let’s dive in.

Players Removed:

I was able to eliminate 12 Running Backs for various reasons. The ones with a "D" next to their name fell into my "Depleted" category, which means they were removed because what I found significantly decreased the chances of success as a pro but didn’t eliminate the chance entirely. The ones with an "E" next to their name fell into my "Empty" category, because I found something that led to 0% success rate in the draft classes from 2008-2017. They are:

Benny Lemay (E)

J.J. Taylor (E)

LeVante Bellamy (E)

Raymond Calais (E)

Salvon Ahmed (E)

Scottie Phillips (E)

Sewo Olonilua (E)

Brian Herrien (D)

Darius Anderson (D)

Javon Leake (D)

La’Mical Perine (D)

Tony Jones (D)

The Table

After I eliminated players, I created a table to determine the Draft Round I would attach to each remaining player. I used their college stats and combine results to determine the chances of them being drafted in the first three rounds by setting a low extreme and high extreme for each stat. If they had more low extremes than their draft grade fell, more high extremes and it rose.

My Draft Board

My Top 5:

1) J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)

Analysis: He showed promise his freshman year and then did a virtual faceplant his sophomore campaign. Going into last season there wasn’t a ton of buzz around him, but he blew up. For as much Heisman hype as Justin Fields received, Dobbins deserved it more. He accounted for 2250 total yards, 23 total touchdowns and averaged 6.7 yards/carry. Fields had that lovely TD/Int ratio, but Dobbins was the heart of the offense. And for anyone wanting to say that he only did so well because of Fields, he had Haskins under Center the year before and that was his worst season at OSU.

2) Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State)

Analysis: Small school back who is going to end up overlooked. He shouldn't be though. He averaged 1300 yards (at 6 yards a clip) and 15 touchdowns a season. He's not undersized either (5'10", 203 pounds), and his 4.41 forty, 37" Vertical and 125" Broad Jump show that he has the explosiveness to go with it. Watch out for Evans.

3) A.J. Dillon (Boston College)

Analysis: 247 pounds, running a 4.53 forty, with a 41” vertical and 131” Broad Jump. That is unbelievable. For those that were questioning his explosive ability I think he answered that. Those number (weight included) were on par with what Derrick Henry did, the difference is a couple inches in height. Looking back at his college career he was incredible at Boston College. BC is not a powerhouse, but they do get the opportunity to play against some bigger schools. Teams knew the ball was going into his hands and he still got the job done. He did carry the ball 813 times during his esteemed career at B.C., which is a cause for some concern. No Running Back drafted in the first-round since 2008 has carried the ball over 800 times in college.

4) Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Vanderbilt)

Analysis: This may come as a bit of a surprise to some, but any Vanderbilt Running Back who can average almost 6 yards per carry deserves some recognition. Vandy is a small fish playing in the toughest conference in college football (sorry Big Ten), which makes Vaughn’s two years there all the more impressive. He saw a down-tick in stats this past season as teams started to key in on him more, but he still played well (1298 total yards, 10 total touchdowns and 5.2 YPC). For those trying to figure out how I got “almost 6 yards per carry” he posted 1414 total yards, 14 touchdowns and 7.2 YPC the year before. He’s also got a decent pair of hands to work out of the backfield with. He could be the sneaky Running Back from this draft that turns himself into a 3-down player for a Backfield needy team.

5) D’Andre Swift (Georgia)

Analysis: My biggest concern with Swift is that he is undersized (5’8) and his highest number of rushing attempts in a season at Georgia was 196. The idea that durability as a primary ball carrier could be an issue pushes him down my board. If a team has another Back that they’re ready to pair him with, he’s going to have a solid career, but you don’t use early picks on a rotational player.

Sleeper: Antonio Gibson (Memphis)

Analysis: Gibson was a swiss-army knife for the Memphis Tigers. He ran the ball, he played Receiver, and he returned kicks. He worked out with the Receivers at the Combine, but I like the idea of him playing Running Back as a pro. Given the fact that he only had one year of production at Memphis and the lack of a primary position he’s going to slide, but his versatility will keep him from going too far. At 6’, 228 pounds he’d be one of the bigger Backs in this draft; his 4.39 forty would tie him with Jonathan Taylor at the top. There’s not much not to love about the guy, and I can’t wait to see where he lands.