2020 Draft Board: Wide Receivers
**Note: changes have been made since the draft happened. I spent May and June adjusting my process by setting strict parameters and adding all combine participants from 2008-2017. Those two improvements caused major changes to my factors and table, which means some players that were on my draft board have been removed, some players that were removed from my draft board have been put back on it, and some players have seen a drastic shift in the round grades they were originally given.
Continuing my Draft Board next we look at the Wide Receivers. We’ve been hearing it since before the offseason began, this Receiver draft class is stacked! It’s crazy the amount of talent there is out there. If you are looking at your team’s roster and thinking “Man we need three starting Receivers” you are in luck! Your team could very well land two starting Receivers on the outside and a guy for the slot. They probably won’t go that route as that’s a lot of faith to place on the backs of rookies, plus they almost certainly have other needs to fill, but the possibility is there. Alright, enough yammering, go check out what I discovered below.
Players Removed:
I was able to eliminate 30 Receivers for various reasons. The ones with a "D" next to their name fell into my "Depleted" category, which means they were removed because what I found significantly decreased the chances of success as a pro but didn’t eliminate the chance entirely. The ones with an "E" next to their name fell into my "Empty" category, because I found something that led to 0% success rate in the draft classes from 2008-2017. They are:
Brandon Aiyuk (E)
Cody White (E)
Jauan Jennings (E)
Trishton Jackson (E)
Quintez Cephus (E)
Aaron Fuller (D)
Aaron Parker (D)
Antonio Gandy-Golden (D)
Austin Mack (D)
Ben Victor (D)
Chris Finke (D)
Darrell Stewart (D)
Dezmon Patmon (D)
Isaiah Coulter (D)
Jalen Reagor (D)
James Proche (D)
Jeff Thomas (D)
Juwan Johnson (D)
Kendrick Rogers (D)
K.J. Hill (D)
K.J. Osborn (D)
Malcolm Perry (D)
Marquez Callaway (D)
Omar Bayless (D)
Quartney Davis (D)
Quez Watkins (D)
Stephen Guidry (D)
Tony Brown (D)
Tyrie Cleveland (D)
The Table
After I eliminated players, I created a table to determine the Draft Round I would attach to each remaining player. I used their college stats and combine results to determine the chances of them being drafted in the first three rounds by setting a low extreme and high extreme for each stat. If they had more low extremes than their draft grade fell, more high extremes and it rose.
My Draft Board
| Players | College | Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs | Alabama | First |
| Ceedee Lamb | Oklahoma | First |
| Tyler Johnson | Minnesota | First-Second |
| Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | Second-Third |
| Denzel Mims | Baylor | Second-Third |
| Tee Higgins | Clemson | Second-Third |
| Justin Jefferson | LSU | Second-Third |
| John Hightower | Boise State | Second-Third |
| Chase Claypool | Notre Dame | Second-Third |
| Michael Pittman | USC | Third-Fifth |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | Colorado | Third-Fifth |
| K.J. Hamler | Penn State | Third-Fifth |
| Gabriel Davis | UCF | Third-Fifth |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | Michigan | Third-Fifth |
| Bryan Edwards | South Carolina | Third-Fifth |
| Isaiah Hodgins | Oregon State | Third-Fifth |
| Darnell Mooney | Tulane | Third-Fifth |
| Kalija Lipscomb | Vanderbilt | Third-Fifth |
| Joe Reed | Virginia | Fourth-Sixth |
| Freddie Swain | Florida | Fourth-Sixth |
| Collin Johnson | Texas | Fourth-Sixth |
| Van Jefferson | Florida | Fifth-Seventh |
| Lynn Bowden | Kentucky | Seventh-Undrafted |
| Lawrence Cager | Georgia | Seventh-Undrafted |
My Top 5:
1) Henry Ruggs (Alabama)
Analysis: Not who I expected to see at the top of my list. He has blazing speed and as long as he ends up in a system that will allow him to use that speed correctly he's going to excel.
2) Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma)
Analysis: Lamb is a walking highlight reel waiting to happen. Hit him on a deep route or dump it off to him and watch him go, it doesn’t matter either way. The 4.5 forty was a little disappointing to me, but the 19.3 YPR is hard to argue. The fact that he did it with three different Quarterbacks throwing the ball to him makes it all the more impressive.
3) Tyler Johnson (Minnesota)
Analysis: The big worry about Johnson is that he doesn’t have the athleticism to shine as a pro. He definitely had the stats in college, but if teams believe he doesn’t have the speed that will allow him to separate as a pro, then he may plummet down draft boards. I’m a huge fan of his as it stands.
4) Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)
Analysis: In a loaded Receiving corps he still found a way to stand out. The only concern I have about Jeudy is the fact that he was a virtual non-factor in the loss to Auburn (5 rec., 26 yards) this past season and in the win over Georgia (3 rec., 24 yards, 1 TD) the year before. Outside of that I don’t have any complaints with his game.
5) Denzel Mims (Baylor)
Analysis: Nearly 3000 yards receiving and 28 touchdowns in his three years at Baylor is all well and good, but measuring in at 6’3, running a 4.38 forty, and jumping 38.5” in the Vertical and 131” in the Broad Jump is where the real story is at. Oh, and I almost forgot the 6.66 3 Cone Drill he tacked on at the end. I had no idea he had that kind of freakish athleticism. Talk about blowing the roof off Lucas Oil Stadium and launching yourself into the first-round conversation.
Sleeper: John Hightower (Boise State)
Analysis: Anyone looking for that talented Receiver from the mid-tier college in this class, this is the guy. Boise State gets enough national television action that he won't slip through as a full blown sleeper, but his name hasn't popped off enough for me to keep him out of this spot. I love his 18.1 YPR average in college and the 4.43 forty he ran that demonstrates where that number comes from. Also, he's 6'1" which isn't going to give him much of an advantage over Corners in today's game, but his 38.5" Vertical will definitely allow him to compete.
