2020 Proceed With Caution: RB
Dalvin Cook/Aaron Jones/Kenyan Drake (Minnesota/Green Bay/Arizona)
Analysis: This is kind of cheating, but they all make my list for the same reason: fragility. Cook spent the first two years of his career injured and then broke out last year. But the workload he carried last season is the main reason why I’m listing him as a potential bust, there’s a very good chance it wears down his body and he ends up missing significant time again this season. Jones dealt with more minor injuries during his first two years, missing 4 games in each of those seasons. If you take it back further, he dealt with significant injuries when he was in college. He too carried a large workload last year that could very well lead to health issues this year. And then there’s Drake. Drake didn’t have a major workload in 2019, but he’s in line for one this season, which is what concerns me. He was injury prone at Alabama, and Miami never wanted to give him a full-time role, which makes this season a difficult one to predict. On the flip side of these Alexander Mattison, A.J. Dillon and Chase Edmonds could easily fall under the Sleepers article I posted a little over a week ago. If you draft Cook, Jones or Drake you should definitely try to handcuff them.
Melvin Gordon (Denver)
Analysis: As long as Gordon stays healthy, he should have a decent season, but don’t expect him to return the value he had during his Fantasy draft 1st round value days with LAC. The Broncos have Phillip Lindsay who has already proven he’s worth the usage he’s received in his first two seasons. Lindsay is going to take a decent chunk of Gordon’s touches away and Royce Freeman is likely to snake some carries away himself. Don’t bypass Gordon entirely, but you should also avoid ranking him too highly.
Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
Analysis: With all the turnover in Jacksonville I’m predicting one of two things will happen with Fournette: one, he’ll revert back to the character issues he was having in his rookie season that caused the Jags to suspend him for team violations because he’s upset that his teammates have been traded away, or two, the Jags are finally able to find a trade partner during the season and they ship him out. If it’s the former than you’re looking at a player who will miss games (possibly also having to deal with those nagging injuries again). If it’s the latter than you’re looking at a player who loses his fantasy value for at least a chunk of the season as he learns a new offense. This one may be more of a gut feeling, but there is some history to back up the predictions.
