2021 Draft Board: Quarterbacks

By now you’ve probably read one of my bazillion draft board articles so you have a good idea of what I did to give each player a PSR (Percent Success Rate), a round grade, and that there were players removed from my draft board. If you don’t, here’s a link to a previous article explaining it: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2020-draft-board-offensive-backfield/

From here down you’ll see my top 5 for the position, the draft board (PSR and round grade included), and the players that were removed. You will notice that my top 5 doesn’t necessarily match-up with how my draft board aligns. That’s because this time around I allowed myself to rank players based on how I actually feel about them while also taking into account what their PSR ended up at. That’s because while the PSR does help me determine what the chances are they succeed, it’s not an exact science and there are plenty of other scouting related factors that come into play. I hope you find this as interesting as I do when I’m working on it.

TOP FIVE

1) Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

Analysis: I was asked by a friend the other day if I thought Lawrence could be a bust. Obviously it’s possible, but my answer was no, I don’t think he will be. He really does remind me a lot of Andrew Luck. Both were/are viewed as generational QB talents, both put up solid, albeit not over the top stats, both have that more traditional QB build with surprising athleticism, and both have that kind and positive demeanor. Oh ya, and both (as long as everything goes as planned) will have been drafted to the worst team in the AFC South during their draft year. Unfortunately for Lawrence, the Jags also have work they need to do to fix up their O-Line, hopefully they get that done before the hits start to take a toll like they did on Luck.

2) Zach Wilson (BYU)

Analysis: His freakish ability to throw beautiful passes from crazy arm angles, and his willingness to just sling it have helped draw the Wilson to Mahomes and Wilson to Favre comparisons. I like Wilson a lot, he’s just super exciting to watch. I think the Jets could do a whole lot worse than taking him at two.

3) Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

Analysis: Crazy athletic, he was clocked at 22 mph on his longest run during the one game NDSU played this past fall. He’s also smart with the ball, 1 interception in the 17 games he started. The fact that he only started 17 games is the biggest knock on him, but I think he has a much higher ceiling than Fields and Jones do.

4) Justin Fields (Ohio State)

Analysis: In my opinion, Fields is more pro ready than Wilson, Lance and Jones, but I also think he’s a lot closer to where he’s going to max out at talent wise. Still, he offers great speed like Lance (4.46 forty), and he’s also smart with the football (finished with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio in his two years at OSU). For teams who are looking toward the short-term gain, Fields is the guy I’d roll with. Also, since it was a major factor for so many people when Tua Tagovailoa was coming out, Fields played with a loaded supporting cast at Ohio State especially in his receiving corps. So, for all of you out there who were ragging on Tua for having the benefit of top flight talent, I hope you are also doing the same to Fields.

5) Mac Jones (Alabama)

Analysis: Due to the Tagovailoa injury Jones finished with 18 career starts (similar to Trey Lance), but thanks to Alabama’s dominance he was also able to see some playing time in seven other games (if you count only the ones that he attempted 3 or more passes). So the overall experience isn’t terrible, though the full-time work is limited. I understand that people want to point out that Jones had superstar targets surrounding him at Alabama, but you can’t blame him for their ability to separate, you have to look at what he did on those throws, and that was to put the ball right where it needed to be. He didn’t “get away” with passes that would have been picked or batted down had the defenders stuck with their guy, he made sure that the ball was thrown in the exact same spot you would want it to be if coverage was tight. I like him as a first round pick, but not a top ten guy, because I don’t believe he has enough arm talent to warrant a top ten selection.

Sleeper: Sam Ehlinger (Texas)

Analysis: Ehlinger won’t end up being Russell Wilson, but I don’t see a guy in this draft class who is going to go after the first round and turn into one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. I see Ehlinger as a solid career backup with the potential to serve as a decent starter if he can get into the right system. He’s tough, he has the drive to win and enough athleticism and arm talent to make things exciting when he’s on the field.

SURPRISING LEFT OFF

For some of the other positions I put this section in to acknowledge players who are very highly touted, but didn’t make my top five. I didn’t feel the need to address any Quarterbacks in this area.

DRAFT BOARD

My Draft Board

REMOVED FROM DRAFT BOARD

For each position there are players who either had a red flag in their college production or athletic testing (or both) that led to them being removed from my draft board. These are referred to as negative factors and can lead to one of two labels: Depleted or Empty. In order for a player to receive a Depleted label, they had to have a negative factor that significantly decreased the chances of success in players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. In order for a player to receive an Empty label, they had to have a negative factor that led to zero successful players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. There were three Quarterbacks removed from my board.

Davis Mills (Stanford) - Depleted

Kellen Mond (Texas A&M) - Depleted

Kyle Trask (Florida) - Empty