2021 Draft Board: Running Backs

Go check out my 2021 Quarterback Draft Board article if you want to get more background information on how this all works.

A little over a month ago I wrote an article about the prospects they missed when putting together who they would have invited to this year’s Combine (link). C.J. Marable (Coastal Carolina) was on that list. You will not find him below and that’s because I removed any player I originally kept on my draft board list, who wasn’t a part of the Combine invitee list, and who ended up with a factor that removed them from my draft board. Marable was one of those players.

TOP FIVE

1) Travis Etienne (Clemson)

Analysis: Let me preface this by saying I would not take a Running Back in the first round of this year’s draft. But, if I had to choose one, it would be Etienne. I love his big play ability. And I love the fact that he never carried the ball more than 207 times in a season, yet he still managed to eclipse 1,600 rush yards twice. His measurements (5’10”, 210 pounds) show he has the size to handle a bigger workload, and his speed (4.42 forty) shows he has the timed speed to match the explosiveness we saw at Clemson.

2) Najee Harris (Alabama)

Analysis: Harris was a highly rated recruit out of high school, but he didn’t really show up until his breakout 2019 season. He then decided to double down on himself and head back to school for another year where he took that 2019 season and obliterated it. I didn’t like the decision not to run at his pro day, because to me it looks like he’s trying to hide something. Having watched enough of his games though, I don’t think his athleticism is too much of a concern.

3) Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

Analysis: I wanted to put Gainwell above Harris, but Gainwell did all of his damage in just one season. What incredible damage it was though: 1,459 rushing yards, 610 receiving, 16 total touchdowns and he popped off for 6.2 yards/attempt. And like Etienne, he also ran his forty in 4.42. I love Gainwell, probably more than most, but don’t take my rankings word for it, go watch his highlight film, it’s awesome.

4) Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

Analysis: Not necessarily a pure power back, but he can play that role well. His 4.09 short shuttle and 6.93 3-cone also suggest he can be agile when he needs to. Williams put up 19 rushing touchdowns this past season, but his low number of total carries in college (366) show he wasn’t used and abused, so no big concerns on that end.

5) Michael Carter (North Carolina)

Analysis: Carter doesn’t have Javonte Williams’ size (he’s only 5’8”), but he still plays tough. I gave Williams the nod over him though because he does have a slight injury history (knee in high school, wrist in college), which is a concern when coupled with his size. I loved seeing his 3.98 short shuttle and 6.83 3-cone since it adds to the “scat-back” label. He can definitely be the lightning to another back’s thunder in the NFL.

Sleeper: Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana)

Analysis: Mitchell had great statistical production while splitting backfield duties with fellow prospect Trey Ragas. Some may say that the production got a bump due to the lack of competition, but at that point you can turn around and check out what he did at his pro day. He ran a 4.35 forty, and a 6.94 3-cone drill, and paired those with great looking explosiveness in the form of a 37.5” vertical and a 128” broad jump. All very impressive, all points toward that 6.2 YPC being more than just a fluke.

SURPRISING LEFT OFF

In my opinion, no one, but others may be surprised to not see Trey Sermon, Chuba Hubbard, or Kylin Hill. Sermon was removed from my board altogether. Hubbard’s significant drop-off from 2019 to 2020 is well documented, so it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. And Kylin Hill had good stats and good testing numbers, but nothing that made me feel like he was a better top five candidate than the North Carolina duo.

DRAFT BOARD

My Draft Board

REMOVED FROM DRAFT BOARD

For each position there are players who either had a red flag in their college production or athletic testing (or both) that led to them being removed from my draft board. These are referred to as negative factors and can lead to one of two labels: Depleted or Empty. In order for a player to receive a Depleted label, they had to have a negative factor that significantly decreased the chances of success in players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. In order for a player to receive an Empty label, they had to have a negative factor that led to zero successful players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. There were eight Running Backs that were removed from my board.

Gary Brightwell (Arizona) - Depleted

Rakeem Boyd (Arkansas) - Depleted

Rhamondre Stevenson (Oklahoma) - Depleted

Trey Sermon (Ohio State) - Depleted

Jaret Patterson (Buffalo) - Empty

Javian Hawkins (Louisville) - Empty

Pooka Williams Jr. (Kansas) - Empty

Stevie Scott III (Indiana) - Empty