2021 Draft Board: Safeties

Go check out my 2021 Quarterback Draft Board article if you want to get more background information on how this all works.

A little over a month ago I wrote an article about the prospects they missed when putting together who they would have invited to this year’s Combine (link). I put Reed Blankenship out of Middle Tennessee State in the article, but as I found out later, he opted to go back to school, so you won’t see him below.

TOP FIVE

1) Caden Sterns (Texas)

Analysis: Sterns made a comment a little bit ago about how he believes he’s the best Safety in this draft class. You expect players to have the utmost confidence in themselves, but after working him through my draft board formulas, I think I agree. Holland and Moehrig will put that theory to the test, but Sterns has the pedigree (highly rated high school recruit), he had the college production that could have been better, but was still good, and his testing numbers were off the charts (4.40 forty, 42” vertical, 132” Broad Jump), he even managed solid numbers in the short shuttle (4.16) and 3-cone drill (6.96). His sprained knee his sophomore year should be looked into medically because knee injuries can linger, and some may feel he should have had a bigger impact after what he did in high school, but how much of that can be attributed to the coaching staff? Texas wasn’t exactly what everyone expected them to be when they brought in Tom Herman (plus Herman was an offensive mind, so a lot of those problems could also be attributed to Herman’s inability to bring in a solid Defensive Coordinator).

2) Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

Analysis: Moehrig is most everyone’s #1 guy at the position. Though his PSR brings him in at 7th on my draft board, I wouldn’t rank him any lower than third in my top five. What he lacks in elite athleticism he makes up for in what he does on the field, specifically in his ability to make plays on the ball. I contemplated ranking Holland above him, but I couldn’t do it because I love Safeties who make plays on the ball too much. I blame Ed Reed for that. (Andre Cisco was super close to hitting my top five for that exact same reason)

3) Jevon Holland (Oregon)

Analysis: Holland was a key player on that really good 2019 defense that Oregon rolled out. Last year wasn’t as good, and a lot of that had to do with the players that opted out of the season, Holland was one of those guys. Nothing says how big of an impact you played like seeing the play of the team drop off the year you sit out. His athleticism may not be on par with Sterns, Forrest and Wiggins, but he plays the position very well, offers good size (6’1”), and had pretty good ball production at Oregon.

4) Darrick Forrest (Cincinnati)

Analysis: Cincinnati had a dominant defense in 2020 and Forrest played a big role in that. I thought it was a little weird that Forrest wasn’t getting more love when the pre-draft process started, but felt like maybe there were questions regarding athleticism. And then he went out at his pro day and ran a 4.43 forty, and had a 39” Vertical and 132” Broad Jump. I think he and Wiggins are on similar footing when it comes to talent, but Forrest doesn’t have the same injury concerns.

5) James Wiggins (Cincinnati)

Analysis: The other half of that Cincinnati Safety duo. Like Forrest, I also thought it was weird that Wiggins hadn’t been getting more attention. Also like Forrest, Wiggins went out and put up crazy good testing numbers at his pro day (4.42 forty, and had a 38” Vertical and 127” Broad Jump). His recent injury history keeps him from moving up my top five despite his PSR, but he at least deserves top five recognition which he doesn’t seem to be getting any of.

Sleeper: Richie Grant (UCF)

Analysis: His college production shows he has the willingness to tackle and the ability to drop back into coverage. His testing numbers weren’t over the moon good, but he was still good enough to keep people from questioning if he can make it as a pro. Some might be a bit higher on him overall, but I like him as a guy who should go on day two, but thanks to the depth of the position there’s a decent chance he slides to day three and someone gets a steal.

SURPRISINGLY LEFT OFF

For some of the other positions I put this section in to acknowledge players who are very highly touted, but didn’t make my top five. I didn’t feel the need to address any Safeties in this area.

DRAFT BOARD

My Draft Board

REMOVED FROM DRAFT BOARD

For each position there are players who either had a red flag in their college production or athletic testing (or both) that led to them being removed from my draft board. These are referred to as negative factors and can lead to one of two labels: Depleted or Empty. In order for a player to receive a Depleted label, they had to have a negative factor that significantly decreased the chances of success in players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. In order for a player to receive an Empty label, they had to have a negative factor that led to zero successful players who had that same factor from 2009-2018. There were only three players removed from my Safety Draft Board this year:

Jamien Sherwood (Auburn) - Empty

Richard LeCounte (Georgia) - Empty

Paris Ford (Pittsburgh) - Empty