2022 AFC: Fantasy Football Factors
In these articles I look at a player or players from each team that could either be a difference maker on your fantasy teams, or be someone who could play a factor on other players from that team that you may want to draft. I try to avoid more obvious, bigger name players. I hope this helps you with your studying and I wish you luck in your upcoming drafts!
Baltimore: Rashod Bateman
Baltimore’s presumed new WR1 had some injury issues to start his rookie season and managed just 515 yards receiving. That’s not surprising for a rookie Receiver, especially given what happened to Baltimore down the stretch. What you’re looking for here is how he appears to be growing in year two, because he is Baltimore's WR1 and that's worth at least a little bit of a nod on draft day.
Buffalo: Gabriel Davis
Davis has been a playoff monster for Buffalo the past two seasons and he appears to finally be in line for the starting spot opposite Diggs. That’s exciting news because his Quarterback has thrown the ball an average of 609 times over the last two years.
Cincinnati: The O-Line
The O-Line is a whole lot better off going into this year than it was the last two, but as I mentioned in my Division Predictions article, it takes time for a new group of Lineman to gel. Keep an eye on how quickly Cincy’s new starting five come together, it will play an integral role in Mixon and Burrow's seasons.
Cleveland: The QB Situation
I don’t see the starting QB affecting Amari Cooper’s output too much, but they will play a factor on the rest of the pass catchers, as well as the run game, and the defense for that matter. Let’s look at it in terms of names: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, and the entire defense! That’s a lot of fantasy value that can be changed by just one player.
Denver: Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy is entering that all-important third year. His first two didn’t exactly go as hoped (467 yards and no touchdowns last year, 856 yards and 3 touchdowns as a rookie). Some of that can be explained away by the injury last year and poor Quarterback play in both years. He won’t have the QB excuse in 2022 though. Don't overpay for him, but if he's there in the late middle rounds he's worth a pick because of Russell Wilson's presence.
Houston: Marlon Mack/Rex Burkhead/Dameon Pierce
Given the history of Lovie Smith’s teams you can expect a willingness to run the ball early and often. With how bad Houston is expected to be I don’t think that will end up being the case this year, so my suggestion would be to keep an eye on which back is on the field most during passing downs, that’s the one with the highest fantasy value for 2022.
Indianapolis: Mo Alie-Cox/Jelani Woods
It’s incredibly difficult for a rookie Tight End to make an immediate impact. For every Kyle Pitts or Pat Freiermuth you have five Mike Gesickis (totaled 202 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns as a rookie). I.e. It's far more likely Alie-Cox is Indy’s TE1 this season and a TE1 in a Matt Ryan offense is a lucrative fantasy position to have: Pitts TE9 in 2021, Hurst TE11 2020, Austin Hooper TE7 in 2019 and 2018. That would make Alie-Cox worth a late-round flier in my book.
Jacksonville: Christian Kirk
Kirk’s best season was last year where he finished as WR28. That could be a sign that he’s finally reaching his potential, or maybe we just saw where his ceiling is. Jacksonville certainly seems to think he still has room to grow with that contract they gave him this offseason. Outside of the concern over whether or not he’ll be Trevor Lawrence’s go-to-guy, there’s also the concern on if he can handle the extra attention he’ll get in the WR1 role. One thing is for sure, he's going to be given the opportunities, and volume doesn't typically hurt you in fantasy land.
Kansas City: The WR1 Battle
They drafted Skyy Moore in the second round, signed Justyn Ross as an undrafted free agent, they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and of course they have Mecole Hardman and Josh Gordon still on the roster. Addressing the returning two, Gordon hasn’t been relevant since 2013 (2018 if you think 720 yards and 3 scores is relevant), and Hardman hasn’t demonstrated he’s ready to take on a big role yet in his career. Smith-Schuster has shown the talent, but struggled when he became the WR1 in Pitt. MVS has the speed to excel with Mahomes, but he’s inconsistent and has dealt with drops, plus his best year was 690 yards and 6 scores with Rodgers throwing the ball. This was a long way of saying I think one of these two rookies jumps into the WR1 spot and runs with it, so keep an eye on their growth with Mahomes and their understanding of the system.
Las Vegas: Josh Jacobs/Kenyan Drake/Zamir White
If you weren’t thinking about it you might just assume this is Jacobs’ backfield and leave it at that. But there’s a new regime in town, headed by Josh McDaniels who ran an RBBC system in New England. Jacobs hasn’t played a full season in his career but has looked good when on the field, Zamir White is a talented rookie with plenty of tread on the tires, and Kenyan Drake could be a sneaky PPR pick if McDaniels decides to use him like he used to use James White and Dion Lewis.
LA Chargers: The Defense
This Chargers defense has stars all over the place and the potential sack output from Bosa and Khalil Mack, plus the potential interception output from J.C. Jackson, Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr. have me drooling over their fantasy potential.
Miami: Tyreek Hill
Hill has been a top three Receiver taken in the non-dynasty/franchise drafts I’ve been a part of over the last two years. That should not be the case this year and Tua will be the reason for that. However, listen to what’s coming out of training camp and pay attention to the preseason games, as bland as the play calling may be, because Mike McDaniel could get very creative with his deployment of Hill in order to make sure his best playmaker gets the ball.
New England: DeVante Parker
We’ve seen what Parker can do when he’s healthy and has solid Quarterback play. In 2019 he put up 1200 yards and 9 scores with FitzMagic throwing him the ball. Mac Jones is ready to take that next step and I think Parker will help him do so, he just has to stay on the field.
NY Jets: Zach Wilson
With the amount of firepower this offense holds I am very intrigued by Zach Wilson’s fantasy potential for the upcoming season. The news out of camp was that he seems to be settling in, which bodes well for the upcoming season. I like his draftability as a QB2, but I’d also like to see some of that hype play out on the field in the preseason.
Pittsburgh: The QB Battle
It doesn’t really matter which guy wins the job when it comes to your fantasy QB situation because you’re not taking either guy as your QB1. What we all want to see is that the guy that wins the job is playing well, making smart decisions, moving the ball well and pushing the ball downfield. If that’s the case, then the collective draft stocks for Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth jump up.
Tennessee: Derrick Henry & Robert Woods
Health is the key for King Henry and who I believe will be the WR1 (that would be Woods). Henry had a foot injury last season and Woods had the torn ACL about halfway through last year. Their fantasy value hinges on how close to 100% they are.
