2022 Draft Board: Quarterbacks

By now you’ve probably read one of my bazillion draft board articles so you have a good idea of what I did to give each player a PSR (Percent Success Rate) and a round grade, and that there are players removed from my draft board. If you don’t, here’s a link to a previous article explaining it: http://www.wetalkfootball.cc/revised-2020-draft-board-offensive-backfield/

From here down you’ll see my top 5 for the position, the draft board (PSR and round grade included), and the players that were removed. You will notice that my top 5 doesn’t necessarily match-up with how my draft board aligns. That’s because I allow myself to rank players based on how I actually feel about them while also taking into account what their PSR ended up at. While the PSR does help me determine what the chances are they succeed, it’s not an exact science and there are plenty of other scouting related factors that come into play. I hope you find this as interesting as I do when I’m working on it.

TOP FIVE

1) Matt Corral (Ole Miss)

Analysis: He's the only one to outright earn the first round grade in this exercise (though Pickett does in a round about way, which you'll see below). I love Corral's arm and he showed fantastic growth with his decision making this past season. I know he didn't do any of the athletic tests, but I don't believe they would have hurt him in any way.

2) Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)

Analysis: Pickett's complete turn around from late-round dud and to first-round stud was like watching Zuko's character arc in Avatar: The Last Airbender. He did so well in fact that he managed to hit on a factor that's led to 100% success rate, and also a factor that's led to a 0% success rate! Unfortunately, the only other player to also hit on both factors was Zach Wilson, so I don't yet know which one to trust and for that reason I will give Pickett the benefit of the doubt. I leave a player's PSR as is even when they hit on a 100% success rate factor, but if you take into account the idea of "guaranteed" then that third-fifth round grade becomes a no-brainer first round grade.

3) Malik Willis (Liberty)

Analysis: His grade below says third-fifth round, but he didn't do any of the athletic tests and I have no doubt that would have given him a boost into the second-third round range. And then you see his character and his demeanor and you can see he has the "it" factor needed to play this position. He made it really hard to choose the order for my top three.

4) Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)

Analysis: I love his athleticism. He'll need a little more work in the passing department, but a little time spent grooming him will go a long ways. I think he'd be the perfect selection in the second round, less weight on his shoulders and perhaps he might even land with a team that can afford to sit him for a season or two.

5) NONE

Analysis: This spot originally belonged to Cole Kelley because I felt like he had the potential to be an eventual starter, but his pro day athletic test results were released and it resulted in him being removed from my board. I don't feel like Coan or Crum have the potential to become starters, and this year I elected to reserve my top five for guys who have the potential to start in the league, rather than forcing a fifth player in here.

Sleeper: Dustin Crum (Kent State)

Analysis: He's more athlete than arm, but that's not a terrible thing when you're looking for a solid backup option to get you through injuries and what not. Especially in today's era where the offenses are built to fit the QB.

SURPRISINGLY LEFT OFF

For some of the other positions I put this section in to acknowledge players who are very highly touted, but didn’t make my top five. I didn’t feel the need to address any Quarterbacks in this area.

DRAFT BOARD
* = Player has a factor that has led to a 100% success rate (so far)

My Draft Board

REMOVED FROM DRAFT BOARD

For each position there are players who either had a red flag in their college production or athletic testing (or both) that led to them being removed from my draft board. These are referred to as negative factors and can lead to one of two labels: Depleted or Empty. In order for a player to receive a Depleted label, they had to have a negative factor that significantly decreased the chances of success in players who had that same factor from 2010-2019. In order for a player to receive an Empty label, they had to have a negative factor that led to zero successful players who had that same factor from 2010-2019. There were nine Quarterbacks removed from my board.

Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) - Depleted

Brock Purdy (Iowa State) - Depleted

Carson Strong (Nevada) - Depleted

D'Eriq King (Miami) - Depleted

E.J. Perry (Brown) - Depleted

Kaleb Eleby (Western Michigan) - Depleted

Sam Howell (North Carolina) - Depleted

Skylar Thompson (Kansas State) - Depleted

Cole Kelley (Southeastern Louisiana) - Empty