Lance's Round 1 Winners and Losers
Every year there are winners and there are losers, but at this point we’re basically just speculating because these player’s careers haven’t gotten started yet. But hey, let’s speculate anyway!
WINNERS
New York Jets: They landed three of my top 15 players and the cherry on top is that they got my #5 guy at pick 26. Truly amazing draft and Jets fans should be super excited for the future. I could see them competing in a year or two and being a legitimate threat in three, especially if Joe Douglas keeps drafting like this.
Philadelphia Eagles: Trading up two spots from 15 to land Jordan Davis in front of Baltimore was brilliant. Trading away pick 18 for A.J. Brown was even better. There wasn’t a Receiver on the board that was on A.J. Brown’s level and they only gave up pick 18 and a third to get him. That average of $25 million/year salary seems like a lot, but thanks to this offseason that’s the going rate for top Receivers right now.
Jalen Hurts: Piggy backing off what I just wrote, the addition of A.J. Brown is huge for Hurts. He now has two talented Receivers on the outside, after having basically no one there just two years ago.
Arizona Cardinals: Clearly they wanted a Receiver, and after seeing the top guys fly off the board they moved their first-round pick for Marquise Brown. Brown’s less of a risk than using that pick on a Christian Watson or a Skyy Moore. He was also Kyler Murray’s go to guy at Oklahoma, which means Brown’s addition could help Arizona in their contract talks with Murray. It was just a savvy move.
Kenny Pickett AND the QBs not named Pickett: Pickett getting to stay in Pittsburgh is a win for him. He’s staying where he just spent the last four years and is already loved, plus he’s with an organization that’s had one of the best cultures in all of football for decades. For the rest of the group, Matt Corral, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell, it might seem like they lost by not going in the first, but I’d argue the opposite. They’re going to go today and they’ll have the added bonus of not having the expectations that come with the first round. Also, they can sit and learn without people constantly questioning why they haven’t gotten on the field yet.
New Orleans Saints: Jumping up to 11 to take Olave proved to be a smart choice thanks to the run on Receivers. Stealing Trevor Penning at 19 was huge! Jameis Winston should be thrilled.
New York Giants Fans: This isn’t because I think Thibodeaux and Neal were steals; I think they were just solid picks at the spots they were chosen. This is actually because last night showed that the Gettleman era is truly over. Schoen and Daboll made smart choices and appear ready to build this team up with blue chip talent, rather than gut feelings.
Baltimore Ravens: Losing Marquise Brown doesn’t have me jumping up and down, but they selected two very talented players and they mostly did it by letting the draft come to them. With Kyle Hamilton they literally stayed put and landed him at 14. And with Tyler Linderbaum they took the pick they got in the trade with Arizona, moved down two spots and still landed potentially the best interior Offensive Lineman in this draft.
Chris Olave: It’s always a good sign when a team trades up to pick you because it shows they REALLY liked you. In addition to that he’ll get to line up opposite Michael Thomas which means wayyyy less pressure, and he’s with an organization that’s done a solid job of maintaining a winning culture. Added bonus: he won’t have Carson Wentz throwing him the ball…yes that was a shot at Washington and Wentz.
LOSERS
Houston Texans: They selected two players, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kenyon Green, that I removed from my board. And to make matters worse they used the 3rd overall pick on Stingley with Ahmad Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu all sitting there. This is how bad teams stay bad.
Jalen Hurts: That’s right, he’s also a loser. The addition of A.J. Brown turns 2022 into a make or break season for Hurts. There’s no longer the “but he doesn’t have enough weapons” excuse, he either shows he can get the job done through the air and the Eagles stand by him, or he flounders and the Eagles move on.
Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers…sort of: I say sort of because they both made two picks and one of them was outstanding while the other not so much. Detroit did a terrific job not hesitating to take Aidan Hutchinson at two, and I loved (or hated because I am a Vikings fan after all) the Devonte Wyatt pick by Green Bay. However, Detroit trading up to take Jameson Williams was a mistake, as was Green Bay selecting Quay Walker at 22. Williams was removed from my board, and I believe he should have gone back to school because he’s not pro ready. He only has one tool in his toolbox and it’s his speed. He needed more time to grow. As for Walker, he wasn’t even the second best Linebacker on that Georgia team. I had him removed from my draft board a month before the Combine even kicked off. Not the way you want to use one of the picks you got in return for Davante Adams.
Nakobe Dean: The rumors about teams being unnerved by the combination of his size and injury history were swirling leading up to the draft and it was the most likely factor as to why he fell out of the first round and lost out on millions of dollars.
Tennessee Titans: Trading away A.J. Brown was borderline going to land them on this side of my list. Taking Treylon Burks with the pick they got in return pushed them the rest of the way down here. Burks was removed from my draft board. Plus, now he has the added pressure of replacing a guy who took the league by storm as soon as he entered it.
Washington Commanders: In my opinion Washington took two L’s yesterday. One was watching the Saints jump on Olave after they traded the pick to them. And the other was taking Jahan Dotson who I had removed entirely from my board. For those that followed our Twitter account during the draft, that was what I meant by “new name, same old nonsense.”
Travon Walker: I swear this is not a shot at Jacksonville. Being a first-round pick comes with its own set of high expectations. Being the #1 pick is on a whole different level and for Walker it was made worse by having Hutchinson (the player most viewed as #1 in the draft) taken right after him. That’s the kind of pressure that can break a player.
MY TOP 15 REMAINING PLAYERS
1) WR Calvin Austin III (Memphis)
I’m sticking to my guns with Austin, someone is getting a weapon later today.
2) OL Zach Tom (Wake Forest)
I graded Tom out as a Center, but in reality he could play just about anywhere on the Line.
3) QB Matt Corral (Ole Miss)
Gunslinger, who showed tremendous improvement in his decision making this past season.
4) Edge Arnold Ebiketie (Penn State)
A little shorter than you might want, but he still has the arm length and athleticism to succeed.
5) LB Chad Muma (Wyoming)
He’s an animal with a nose for the ball.
6) QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
Love his character, he has the “IT” factor you want at the position.
7) LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)
I thought about listing him at the top here, but like I mentioned above, there is concern over injury risk.
8) TE Charlie Kolar (Iowa State)
He can catch, he can block and he’s got plenty of athleticism, STOP SLEEPING ON KOLAR.
9) OT Abraham Lucas (Washington State)
Potentially the best pass blocker in the draft.
10) RB Breece Hall (Iowa State)
Big, fast, great vision, everything you want out of an RB1.
11) CB Alontae Taylor (Tennessee)
Really stepped up this past season in all areas of his game, the 4.36 speed is just a bonus.
12) LB Leo Chenal (Wisconsin)
Showed he’s an athletic freak in the pre-draft process, needs to work on his coverage though, so he can be a three-down backer.
13) TE Trey McBride (Colorado State)
Smaller, but faster than Kolar with better yardage production, though he lagged behind Kolar in touchdowns.
14) WR Bo Melton (Rutgers)
Overlooked because he didn’t produce a ton, but look at where he played. Super athletic and deserves more recognition.
15) RB Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State)
Not big, but a big play waiting to happen.
