2023 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis

This is a look at how we can use current ADP to determine where the value really is. I predominantly focus on RBs and WRs because those tend to be the focal points of the various draft strategies out there.

The stats I used to determine the statistics below were taken from 2014-2022 with one slight exception, but I'll mention that at the beginning of that section. All fantasy point results were based on half PPR, and all ADPs were based on a 12-team, 15-round draft. Both results were pulled from Fantasy Pros.

Of the top 15 RBs in each of those years 86.02% of them were drafted in the first two rounds. Of the top 15 WRs 79.71% were drafted in the first two rounds.

Current RBs with a 1st or 2nd round ADP: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard

Current WRs with a 1st or 2nd round ADP: Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle

Of the top 30 RBs 83.52% were drafted in the first 5 rounds. Of the top 30 WRs 82.16% went in the first 5 rounds.

Current RBs with a 3rd to 5th round ADP: Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift

Current WRs with a 3rd to 5th round ADP:  DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Michael Pittman, Jerry Jeudy, Chris Godwin

Of the top 30 scorers in each of those years (270 total):
61.11% were QBs
19.63% were RBs
17.78% were WRs
1.48% were TEs

Of the top 60 scorers:
40.93% were QBs
24.26% were RBs
29.26% were WRs
4.07% were TEs

What this means: It's a lot easier to find a high scoring QB than any other position. It also helps prove that you better hope you can either land one of the top Tight Ends, or find that diamond in the rough that's going to breakout. And this shows that it's slightly more important to find the handful of RBs over the handful of WRs.

Top 30 scorers during that span for RBs broken down by the average round they were drafted in (the percentage is in parentheses and is based on the number of player taken in that specific round, which makes it difficult to do a percentage on undrafted players):

1st: 50 (68.49%)
2nd: 37 (66.07%)
Undrafted: 30
3rd: 23 (62.16%)
4th: 23 (50%)
6th: 16 (47.06%)
5th: 14 (46.67%)
9th: 12 (34.29%)
13th: 14 (31.82%)
7th: 13 (31.71%)
8th: 11 (27.50%)
12th: 6 (27.27%)
14th: 9 (23.68%)
10th: 4 (16.67%)
11th: 6 (14.63%)
15th: 1 (3.13%)

My favorite RBs currently listed with a 180.5 ADP or more (aka Undrafted): Jerome Ford (CLE), Chase Brown (CIN), Gus Edwards (BAL), Joshua Kelley (LAC), Eric Gray (NYG), Pierre Strong (NE), DeWayne McBride (MN)

Top 30 scorers during that span for WRs broken down by the average round they were drafted in (the percentage is in parentheses, but makes it difficult to do a percentage on undrafted players):

Undrafted: 36
1st: 27 (72.97%)
2nd: 33 (67.35%)
3rd: 35 (64.81%)
4th: 30 (61.22%)
5th: 24 (47.06%)
6th: 20 (41.67%)
9th: 12 (33.33%)
12th: 7 (25.00%)
7th: 9 (23.08%)
10th: 7 (20.59%)
8th: 8 (17.02%)
13th: 6 (15.00%)
11th: 6 (13.33%)
15th: 6 (12.50%)
14th: 4 (7.41%)

My favorite WRs currently listed with a 180.5 ADP or more (aka Undrafted): Jonathan Mingo (CAR), Michael Gallup (DAL), John Metchie (HOU), Josh Downs (IND), Tyquan Thornton (NE), Marvin Mims (DEN), Greg Dortch (AZ)

This section looks at the number of top ten RBs and top ten WRs to repeat that feat over several years. This went from 2014 to 2022, however if a player finished top ten in 2014 I went back further until they were no longer in the top ten.

RBs to finish top ten in 4 straight seasons: 1
3 straight: 5
2 straight: 20
5 straight or more: 0

WRs to finish top ten in 6 straight seasons: 2
5 straight: 0
4 straight: 2
3 straight: 11
2 straight: 5
7 or more: 0

A few more fun stats: On average over those 9 years....

-59.02% of RBs that finished in the top ten failed to do it two years in a row. Last year we saw Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, Leonard Fournette and Cordarrelle Patterson all fail to get back into the top 10. That doesn't bode well for these players:

Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson

-That number is 69.81% for WRs. Last year we saw Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson and Deebo Samuel all fail to do so. That doesn't bode well for these players:

A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Cooper and DeVonta Smith

-There's about an 8.20% chance a RB that manages to go two years straight in the top ten can continue that trend for a third year in a row. Last season Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara both failed to do so. Austin Ekeler will attempt to do it this season. In other words, I will be avoiding Ekeler considering his ADP is currently pick 4 or 5.

-There's about a 3.77% chance a WR can get to the four straight mark. Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill will all attempt to do just that this season. It's really difficult to discount any one of these guys, but I will probably try to avoid all four (Jefferson's ADP is pick 1, Adams is pick 14-15, Digg is pick 11-12 and Hill is pick 6-7). Diggs would probably be the exception provided that 11-12 results in a second round pick. Hill sliding to the second round would also be a price I'd be willing to pay.