2026 Draft Board: Edge Rushers

The below information I included in the QB draft board earlier in the week, I'm going to include it for every board, but it will be identical on each.

If you've ever read one of my draft board articles before then you have an idea of what you'll see below, but I did overhaul the system a little bit. Basically I just moved all of my formulas over to using a z-score method. If you haven't read them, quick explanation, I use stats, athletic testing, past performances from current pro players, and formulas to try and determine the chances a prospect in the current draft has at succeeding as a pro. In the past I used a "PSR", and an "A Met" and "S Met" to give every player a round grade. Now, it all comes down to a Score. The scores differ by position, so before each draft board I will put what the high score was between the 2020-2023 drafts at that position (those are draft years that I've done this for, as well as ones that have been in the league for at least 3 years). And at the bottom you will see a small blurb I wrote up for each position.

Real quick additional note: I'm including a "My Top 5" section this year. You will notice with some positions that the top 5 doesn't line up with the top five on the actual draft board. There's a reason for that. When I grade out the pros to determine the "success rate" factor, I actually give them a grade (A = Superstar, B = High-end starter, C = Solid Starter, D = Rotational at best, and F = Fail). I hadn't considered using that in the past, but I realized I can use it to get a little more granular when it comes to ranking them. Sometimes a guy that is lower on my draft board than another guy, actually has a higher chance of being a high-end starter or better. So along side the name of the player and their school, I will include a B+ which is just the percent chance they have of being a high-end starter or better, and a C+ which will be the percent chance they have of being a solid starter or better.

This will be updated as pro day results become available.

High Score for Edge: 86.76 (Micah Parsons - 2021)

My Edge Draft Board

My Top 5:

1) Arvell Reese (Ohio State): B+ = 10.51, C+ = 35.24

2) David Bailey (Texas Tech): B+ = 10.51, C+ = 35.24

3) Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State): B+ = 10.51, C+ = 35.24

4) Caden Curry (Ohio State): B+ = 10.51, C+ = 35.24

5) Malachi Lawrence (UCF): B+ = 6.63, C+ = 35.59

Things worth noting:

-You likely noticed with my numbers for my Top 5 that Malachi Lawrence actually edged out the other four guys in the C+ category. However, he was decently far behind them for B+. Unless the difference in C+ is staggering, I'm almost always going to go with the guy, or guys, that have the higher B+. It might be a bigger risk, but I'd prefer to swing for the fences rather than picking up a single...in most cases.

-You'll see Arvell Reese and Trey Moore on both this board and my Linebacker board, and that's because they both managed a Day 3 grade or higher for both positions (as well as having played a healthy amount of both on the ball and off the ball in college, and having the size to play either position as a pro). Moore received a Day 3 grade for both, so dealer's choice with him, but Reese definitely graded out much higher at Edge Rusher, so this is where he should end up. Versatility doesn't hurt though.

-Rueben Bain Jr. receiving a 0.00 and an Undrafted label is not me making a hot take. His arms were a genuine concern going into the Combine, but arm length alone is not enough for me to remove a guy, it's actually a dual factor. He hit on both and not the good kind of hit. I would say he's best suited to be a strict pass-rush specialist and I would liken him to that of Carl Lawson. Some might say that's not such a bad thing, but keep in mind that Bain is being talked about as a top 10 pick.

-Faulk and Overton were guys I viewed as possible hand-in-the-dirt Defensive Ends in a 3-4 going into the Combine. And after they performed, I still felt like that might be the best spot for them. Size isn't an issue, and from an athletic standpoint it might actually benefit them (more specifically Overton, since Faulk didn't perform at the Combine). All of that to say that they made my draft board for both Edge and Defense Line, and they managed Day 3 grades for both positions.

-Sleeper: The Day 2 player who finished just outside my top 5, Nadame Tucker. As a whole he had some disappointments, especially that 4.73 forty after posting a 1.63 10-split. However, that 1o-split paired with his pressure rate are what makes him a sleeper for me. By my numbers those are two factors that weigh into the formulas a little heavier. The buzz seems a little lighter around Tucker, and that's probably because this class of Edge Rushers is viewed as loaded, so there's a chance someone gets a Day 3 steal here.

I've been tracking the success rate of each position individually based on my grades from 2020-2023, and I'm going to include that for each position. It might help shine a light on some of my "things worth noting."

Edge Success Rate