Fantasy Football ADP Analysis
I know this is coming out very late in the draft season, but I had been trying to work out the kinks for this exercise when I read an article that looked at RBs and WRs taken high in previous drafts that failed to perform. That helped me figure out a few of the issues that were keeping me from completing this project. I predominantly focused on RBs and WRs because those are the two most important positions in fantasy football. They also are the focal points of the various draft strategies out there.
The stats I used to determine the statistics below were taken from 2014-2021 with one slight exception, but I'll mention that at the beginning of that section. All fantasy point results were based on half PPR, and all ADPs were based on a 12 team-15 round draft. Both results were pulled from Fantasy Pros.
Of the top 15 RBs in each of those years 87.5% of them were drafted in the first two rounds. Of the top 15 WRs 80.33% were drafted in the first two rounds.
Current RBs with a 1st or 2nd round ADP: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, D'Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams and Leonard Fournette.
Current WRs with a 1st or 2nd round ADP: Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill.
Of the top 30 RBs 82.69% were drafted in the first 5 rounds. Of the top 30 WRs 82.32% went in the first 5 rounds.
Current RBs with a 3rd to 5th round ADP: Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, Cam Akers, David Montgomery, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs, Elijah Mitchell and A.J. Dillon.
Current WRs with a 3rd to 5th round ADP: Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson and Jerry Jeudy.
Of the top 30 scorers in each of those years (240 total):
62.08% were QBs
19.17% were RBs
17.50% were WRs
1.25% were TEs
Of the top 60 scorers:
41.46 were QBs
23.33% were RBs
29.17% were WRs
4.38% were TEs
What this means: It helps to further prove that you shouldn't overpay for a Quarterback because the difference between the top guy and the 12th guy really isn't that big. It also helps to prove that you better hope you can either land one of the top Tight Ends, or find that diamond in the rough that's going to breakout. And it shows that it's a little more important to find that handful of RBs rather than the handful of WRs.
Top 30 scorers during that span for RBs broken down by the average round they were drafted in:
1st: 44
2nd: 31
Undrafted: 28
3rd: 21
4th: 21
6th: 15
5th: 13
13th: 13
9th: 11
7th: 10
8th: 9
14th: 8
11th: 6
12th: 6
10th: 4
15th: 0
My favorite RBs currently listed with a 180.5 ADP or more (aka Undrafted): It's a handful of rookies that need to either earn that playing time that I could see them getting in year one, or have the guy in front of them go down with an injury, or have one of the guys in front of them get traded - Zamir White, Tyrion Davis-Price, Hassan Haskins, Pierre Strong Jr., and Jerome Ford.
Top 30 scorers during that span for WRs broken down by the average round they were drafted in:
Undrafted: 34
3rd: 32
2nd: 30
4th: 27
1st: 22
5th: 21
6th: 16
9th: 10
8th: 8
7th: 7
11th: 6
12th: 6
13th: 6
15th: 6
10th: 5
14th: 4
My favorite WRs currently listed with a 180.5 ADP or more (aka Undrafted): Marvin Jones Jr., Donovan Peoples-Jones, K.J. Hamler, Kyle Phillips, Robbie Anderson and Wan'Dale Robinson
This section looks at the number of top ten RBs and top ten WRs to repeat that feat over several years. This went from 2014 to 2021, however if a player finished top ten in 2014 I went back further until they were no longer in the top ten.
RBs to finish top ten in 4 straight seasons: 1
3 straight: 4
2 straight: 19
5 straight or more: 0
WRs to finish top ten in 6 straight seasons: 2
5 straight: 0
4 straight: 2
3 straight: 3
2 straight: 9
7 or more: 0
A few more fun stats: On average over those 8 years....
-54.72% of RBs that finished in the top ten failed to do it two years in a row. That should mean about half of the following will fail to finish top ten this year:
Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, Leonard Fournette and Cordarrelle Patterson
-That number is 66.67% for WRs which means 2/3 of the following should fail to make the top ten this year as well:
Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson and Deebo Samuel
-There's about a 9.43% chance a RB that manages to go two years straight in the top ten can continue that trend for a third year in a row. That's what Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara will be trying to do this season.
-There's about a 14.58% chance a WR can get to that three straight mark. Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill will all attempt that feat this season.
