Fantasy Football Draft Season Takes 2023
Writing fantasy articles in May and June typically means you are going to be changing some of your thoughts by the time August rolls around. Here are a few things I'm noticing as my drafts get closer:
1) There are four players that carry a first round ADP that I like and all four currently have an ADP in the top 8. So, if you're in a 10 or 12 team league and picking towards the end of the first round, don't be afraid to pass on who the collective seems to like down there and go with your gut instead. It's only a reach if it doesn't pan out. If you're picking in the top 8...good luck!
2) There are a ton of teams that I will be watching closely when the real preseason games start up, especially for my later drafts, and almost exclusively because there's something about their pass attack that I need answers to. For instance, Carolina, Houston and Indy. I want to see how their rookies are playing and who their favorite targets seem to be. Tampa Bay for Evans' and Godwin's sakes because I want to know how big of a train wreck Mayfield or Trask are going to be. Seattle, Baltimore and Minnesota to see how their rookie Receivers are being utilized, with the bonus of seeing if Geno will pick up where he left off and how different Baltimore's offense is actually going to look. That's 7 teams and I could keep going. Backfields should be studied too with SOOOO many questions that need some kind of answer. Team's run watered down schemes in preseason, but that doesn't mean you can't glean some information by watching.
3) Speaking of backfields, by all accounts Tank Bigsby looks to be the rookie Running Back that was drafted in the mid to late rounds that is ready to make some noise this season. He'll have a harder time doing so than some of his counterparts because Etienne is in front of him, but it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. I'm only adding this because if I could amend the rookie I listed in my sleeper article I would replace Roschon Johnson with Bigsby.
4) Looking over ADPs, I'm not loving a lot of the names that are going in the 7th to 10th round range. I've got a lot of players I like that are going later than that. I'm going to "reach" if I have to and I'll do it with a smile on my face.
5) Dalvin Cook (62.3), Ezekiel Elliott (148.7), Kareem Hunt (174.3) and Leonard Fournette (176) are all getting drafted in 12 team-15 round leagues. I will be shocked if any of those four are still team-less by week 3, but the point I want to make here is that you're overpaying for Cook and Elliott. If Cook ends up in Miami instead of with the Jets then I'll take that back. However, if he ends up with the Jets you're looking at a shared backfield with Breece Hall, plus Abanikanda working in, and of course they're going to want to throw the ball. I'm definitely not spending an early 7th round pick when that's the most likely outcome right now. I'm probably not picking him regardless, but if I were, the 10th round would be the earliest I'd go unless he signs with Miami. Elliott in the 13th isn't as bad, but I'd group him with Hunt and Fournette and consider all of them a 15th round flier, unless of course they sign or the rumor mill starts to heat up because right now it's an empty void.
6) After going over the current ADPs, I'm heavily leaning towards taking two late round Tight Ends instead of spending a high pick on one of the top guys. Guys like Okonkwo, Schultz, Kmet, Kincaid, Higbee, LaPorta, Juwan Johnson and Mayer are all going in the 11th-15th rounds right now. Grabbing two of them (maybe even going a round earlier than that to make sure I get the one I want) would give me an extra pick in the first 9 rounds to spend on a RB or WR.
7) I could do the same thing with Quarterback. I do like Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Burrow, but I'm not sure I want to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB. I also like Herbert and Lawrence, but again that's a 4th or 5th round pick, I would have to strongly dislike who was left on the board at that point. I have high hopes for Deshaun Watson, I'm just not willing to take that big of a risk in the 7th round. Which brings me to a point where I could easily just decide to pick from the veteran pool of Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, or Derek Carr and pair them with a rookie or a sleeper like Bryce Young or Sam Howell, or I could just take two of the vets and play the matchups. The possibilities are abundant, my suggestion is don't freak out if you don't get one of the top guys.
8) Last but not least, here are some names that are almost entirely overlooked, or that are being completely ignored that you should take note of for your draft:
Mac Jones, Jerome Ford, Kenneth Gainwell, Zamir White (depending on how the Josh Jacobs situation is looking), DeWayne McBride/Ty Chandler/Abram Smith, Skyy Moore, Romeo Doubs, Marvin Mims and Mike Gesicki
All are names that you should try and watch in preseason either because they're in a position battle, a new scheme, or both. Ford, White and Doubs are exceptions to that. Ford will be the new RB2 in Cleveland which was fruitful for Hunt, but will it remain so for Ford? I touched on White already. And Doubs is working with a new QB1.
