Lance's 2020 NFL Predictions
This is it folks. A destructive 2020, full of despair and dark clouds led to the most unexpected Super Bowl in the history of the NFL. Out from the NFC emerged an Alex Smith led Washington Football Team. And in the AFC Minshew Mania continued to reign supreme as Jacksonville slipped into the playoffs and pulled off three shocking upsets in quick succession. Let’s see how they got here.
Alex Smith was cleared to return to practice in August and right away showed his new Head Coach why he would be the more valuable asset under Center. Still, Washington decided to roll with Dwayne Haskins, but after a 1-4 start they shifted gears, handing the reigns over to Smith. Smith and the tyrannical front seven of Washington’s defense finished nearly perfect to close out 2020, going 11-5 on the year and running away with an NFC East crown that no one seemed to want early in the season. Thanks to the rest of the NFC divisions destroying each other, Washington was able to land the #2 seed. Because of the new playoff format, they took on the 7th seed Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card round. Kyler Murray showed why he’s so much fun to watch, but his Houdini act wasn’t enough to steal the game. In the divisional round Alex Smith returned to his roots, managing the game, and relying on his running backs to run down the clock as their newfound premier defense shut down what was supposed to be a dominate Tampa Bay offense. Heading into the NFC Championship Washington lucked out after the 4th seed Seattle Seahawks pulled out a win over the top ranked Green Bay Packers. Washington used the home field advantage, charging out to an early 17-0 lead that they would never relinquish. For the first time since 1992, Washington was going to the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville’s path to the Super Bowl wasn’t quite as pretty. Gardner Minshew, wanting to shut up his critics came out of the gate firing on all cylinders, but even his superior play under Center wasn’t enough to cover up the deficiencies on defense. The Jags opened up 0-3. Then Josh Allen turned into something out of a comic book, posting back to back 3 sack games and forcing opposing Quarterbacks to run for their lives on nearly every down. Over the rest of the year the Jags would go back and forth, they’d win one and then lose a tough game, they’d steamroll two playoff bound opponents, then fall to the lowly Texans. Nothing seemed to make sense, but in week 17 it all came together. A game winning fourth quarter drive would put Jacksonville at 9-7 and give them the record they needed to steal the 7th seed away from the Titans. In the wild card they took on the #2 seed Kansas City Chiefs and turned the entire football world upside down. Minshew launched three deep touchdown passes to D.J. Chark in the first quarter, trying his best to run with Mahomes and co. After a failed 2-point attempt by the Chiefs, the Jags found themselves down by 1 with a minute and a half left to go, it was a situation Minshew had dealt with all season long. Looking like a seasoned veteran, he moved the Jags offense downfield methodically, allowing for a last second Josh Lambo field goal to take the win. The divisional round setup another tough matchup with the #1 seed Baltimore Ravens, but not even the Ravens could end Jacksonville’s charge. Ryquell Armstead led the way doing his best Derrick Henry impression to overpower the Ravens defense and send Baltimore home empty handed for the second year in a row. The Jaguars AFC Championship foe was one they had already played twice, the Indianapolis Colts. Phillip Rivers was hungry, sensing that this may be the last chance he would ever get at a ring, unfortunately for him the Jags were hungrier. Jacksonville destroyed the Colts 35-3 marching on toward the finish line.
Unfortunately for both Jacksonville and Washington, this is all made up. Below you will find my actual predictions for each of the major awards and my pick for the Super Bowl. I give a dark horse pick for each of those as well.
Super Bowl Prediction: Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
Reasoning: A Phillip Rivers vs Drew Brees Super Bowl would be amazing. It would also be slightly poetic knowing that they’re playing each other and neither of them is playing for the Chargers. But I’d like to start out by pointing to each of their trenches. They each have one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL. For the Colts, that will be the biggest reason why Rivers will be able to bounce back and help push the Colts towards a Super Bowl. For the Saints, it’s been the reason why Brees has been able to play for as long as he has, and it’s the reason he’ll be able to have them in prime position to push for another Super Bowl. Defensively the Colts have been playing well against the run, but their pass defense needs to step up. Enter DeForest Buckner. Matt Eberflus has been working wonders with so-so talent (there are a few exceptions like Darius Leonard), but now he has a player who can be a superstar wreaking havoc from the interior of his D-Line. The Saints have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but they didn’t play up to their potential last season. Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and Marshon Lattimore should get things back on track. Both of these teams have the talent and the leadership to get to the Super Bowl. I’ll take the Colts to bring home the trophy and hand Rivers his ring that he graciously slips onto his finger as he rides off into the sunset.
Dark Horse Super Bowl Prediction: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Reasoning: The Broncos still have plenty of talent and two of the best Edge Rushers in the NFL. I also believe that they’ve finally found the piece that’s been holding them back in Drew Lock. The additions of Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler load up an offense that already had talent. The biggest factor that could hold back either of these teams is their Offensive Line situations. But that hasn’t held back Russell Wilson yet, he’s still competing at a high level and has the Seahawks fighting to remain contenders. The additions of Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar should help boost what was once the best secondary in the league. But the Seahawks will have to hope that at least one of the high picks they’ve used on pass rushers pans out. Wilson is talented enough to push Seattle into another Super Bowl, he has the weapons on offense and some star power on defense to keep Seattle as contenders. I would take Seattle to steal another Super Bowl trophy from the Broncos, but in a much closer competition than the last one.
Awards
MVP Pick: Dak Prescott (Dallas)
Reasoning: Talk about a loaded offense. The Cowboys have one of the best receiving corps we may ever see. There was talk early in the offseason that Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb could all go for 1,000 yards receiving, and I agree with it. Prescott has the arm, he’s surrounded by talent, all he has to do is win.
Dark Horse MVP Pick: Kyler Murray (Arizona)
Reasoning: For those who like placing bets Murray may be a good one to put a little money on. He’s going at 25/1 last I saw. He’s got weapons all around him, the Cards invested some into the O-Line and he’s the dual threat type that creates highlight reel plays and can rack up the stats. The Cards have a good chance at being in the playoff race as well, which would increase Murray’s shot a winning MVP.
Offensive Player of the Year Pick: Alvin Kamara (New Orleans)
Reasoning: Kamara should be completely healthy and under contract long term here shortly, so there’s nothing standing in his way of coming back to the top of the RB rankings. A lot has been made about the weapons that the Saints have in the passing game, but let’s look at it a little closer, shall we? Emmanuel Sanders is 33 and he missed 8 games due to injury in 2017 and 2018. Jared Cook is also 33 and plays a position that typically leads to injuries. The Saints still have Tre’Quan Smith, but he has done nothing in his first two seasons to make me think he’s on his way to breaking out. They drafted Adam Trautman, but it is difficult for rookie Tight Ends to transition into the NFL. If we are being 100% honest with ourselves, Kamara is the #2 Receiver in this offense, and I’m going to go out on a limb with a BOLD PREDICTION: Alvin Kamara will become the 4th Running Back in NFL history to eclipse the 1,000/1,000 barrier. That’s right, ONE year after CMC did it, after it hadn’t been done in 20 years.
Dark Horse OPOY Pick: Austin Ekeler (LA Chargers)
Reasoning: Ekeler is another great dual threat Running Back in the NFL. Last year McCaffrey should have won this award, but he ultimately lost to Michael Thomas who was breaking records. Records don’t fall very often, and I just don’t see any offensive season records taking a tumble this year with there having been no real preseason prep. So, my money for this award is going to be on those backs who are good at running the ball and can take their Quarterback’s check downs and make defenses pay. Ekeler doesn’t just catch passes out of the backfield either, he also lines up in the Slot. I think he’ll be a favorite target of Tyrod’s (because that Offensive Line is horrid) and eventually he’ll be Justin Herbert’s safety blanket when he takes over under Center.
Defensive Player of the Year Pick: Von Miller (Denver)
Reasoning: I have high hopes for the Broncos this season and that is due to Drew Lock’s potential and the Receivers he now has on offense. But Denver’s true power starts with their pass rushers. Miller still has it. A lot of people may have forgotten about him or have written him off, that’s not because Miller has turned into some pile of mush. Last year he finished with 8 sacks, only the second time in his career he finished in the single digits. That has more to do with injuries in the Broncos front seven and the poor play of the team as a whole. I believe Miller is going to lead the league in sacks this season, and he and Chubb are going to be two big reasons Denver will find themselves back in the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Dark Horse DPOY Pick: Devin Bush (Pittsburgh)
Reasoning: I had my doubts about Bush going into the 2019 draft, but man was I wrong. He really does have the talent to do everything asked of an Inside Linebacker. As a rookie he posted 109 total tackles, 9 for loss, a sack, 2 interceptions and 4 pass deflections. Those stats are only going to improve. Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the league, Bush is already the best player on it (sorry Minkah Fitzpatrick).
Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Joe Burrow (Cincinnati)
Reasoning: Burrow will start from week 1, which is going to make it very difficult for any player (including Clyde Edwards-Helaire) to beat him out. He has a plenty of weapons and a defense that’s going to struggle, which means lots of shootouts and late game stats padding. As long as his Offensive Line doesn’t hang him out to dry all season long Burrow will be in prime position to take home this award.
Dark Horse OROY Pick: Cam Akers (LA Rams)
Reasoning: I’ve wanted to go in a few different directions, but I kept coming back to Akers. Kind of like in my fantasy drafts, I had my eyes searching elsewhere, but they always seemed to land back on Akers (I have him in all three of my leagues). McVay continues to claim that the Rams will be using a three-back committee, but I don’t see that lasting long. First of all, the beat writers out at Rams camp have been saying that Akers is hands down the most talented back they have. Second of all, the Rams have a bad Offensive Line, but that’s something Akers dealt with all throughout college, he knows how to make his own holes. And last of all, Darrell Henderson has been hurt, nothing super serious, but he’s missed valuable practice time. That’s already far too common for him seeing as how he finished last year on the I.R. Akers will take over this backfield early and he’ll get plenty of use as the Rams try and take pressure off of Goff. It’ll be tough for him to have a better rookie season than Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jonathan Taylor, but that’s what makes him a Dark Horse.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Isaiah Simmons (Arizona)
Reasoning: Isaiah Simmons’ versatility is what makes him my preseason pick to take home DROY. He can play Edge opposite Chandler Jones, he can line up at Inside Linebacker or Safety, or even kick over into the Slot. Simmons will have ample opportunity to create one of the most interesting stat lines I’ve ever seen a defender post. His ability should also help improve the Cardinals defense which would lead to added points in the voter’s minds.
Dark Horse DROY Pick: Terrell Lewis (LA Rams)
Reasoning: In today’s game sacks are king and pass rushing is what Lewis does best. Aaron Donald on the D-Line will always take attention off others. If Lewis can stay healthy, he’ll pile up the flashy stats and that will garner attention.
Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Baker Mayfield (Cleveland)
Reasoning: I’m aware that Mayfield wasn’t hurt last year, but CPOY is not just for players returning from injury, it’s also for guys who’s play dropped off significantly the year before. Mayfield fits that category and thanks to his new Head Coach and the additions to his Offensive Line, I believe he’s going to destroy what he did last year. The NFC North is a tough division, but the Browns are legitimate threat to win it. I don’t think they will though, but I do think Mayfield will push the 4,500 yard mark threshold, while dropping his Touchdown to Interception ratio towards the 3/1 range (a whole lot better than the nearly 1/1 he put up last year).
Dark Horse CPOY Pick: Reuben Foster (Washington)
Reasoning: An interesting case. He entered the league showing promise, got hurt, got in trouble, got hurt again and now here we are in a very important fourth season. I’ve heard rumors that Foster isn’t a lock to make the team, but if he does, he’ll be in contention for Comeback Player of the Year. Washington has one of the most talented front sevens in all of football, which will free up Foster to find the ball carrier consistently. He just has to make the team and prove he is completely healthy and ready to play.
Coach of the Year Pick: Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland)
Reasoning: He’s a first year Head Coach, which means there isn’t anything to compare this season to, so 10-6 or 11-5 will look great. He’s taken over a team that didn’t come close to expectations last season but is loaded with talent. He’s already facing adversity with injuries in his secondary and he’s got a tough road ahead having to deal with playing Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. If he can hit double digit wins then Cleveland will be in the playoffs (division title or not) and he’ll look like the Coaching savior the Browns have been searching for.
Dark Horse COY Pick: Brian Flores (Miami)
Reasoning: The Dolphins are likely not going to win the AFC East (no matter how many sarcastic comments I make about them taking out Buffalo and New England), or make the playoffs, they’re likely two good off-seasons away from that. But this team has had enough talent infusion to push for 7 or 8 wins, playing in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL will make that target all the more likely. Flores doesn’t need to stun the world by finishing 12-4 and winning his division, he just needs to jump up to an unexpected 8-win season and give the Miami fan base the hope they’ve been missing for what feels like ages.
