Lance's 2021 CFP and Award Predictions
Questions heading into the season:
How will the top Independent teams do?
This is really only a question because the Independent conference doesn’t receive a spot in my conference prediction article. I expect a step back from BYU and Notre Dame. BYU is an obvious one. They just lost their Quarterback, top Receiver, top Tight End and best Offensive Lineman to the draft. It’s going to be difficult to repeat that amazing 2020 season, Cougars fans, so don’t be discouraged if they drop to 6-6 or worse. The offense should travel through Running Back Tyler Allgeier, who averaged 7.3 yards a pop last season and posted 12 touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up with teams no longer having to focus on Zach Wilson. Notre Dame isn’t as obvious, but that’s because analysts focus on the name and not the product. They're breaking in a new Quarterback, presumably Jack Coan who does have experience starting (transferred from Wisconsin), but he's still new to them. They’re also replacing basically their entire Offensive Line. Don’t be surprised if they struggle to move the ball. They also have one of the harder schedules in the FBS. Games against Wisconsin, Cincinnati, USC, North Carolina and Stanford will be far from walks in the park.
The last team from the group that I want to mention is Liberty, who should have a shot at going undefeated. They return most of their starters, including one of the top QB prospects in the country (Malik Willis), and they have one of the easiest schedules in the nation. Unfortunately, that last little bit of information will keep them from making the CFP regardless of whether or not they go 12-0.
Will a Group of Five team push for a playoff spot?
No. I don’t see the NCAA allowing a group of five team to make the playoffs until the 12-team playoff kicks in. At that point there’s a built-in spot for the highest ranked group of five team, so there isn’t anything they can do to prevent it. There are only three teams I could see making a run at a playoff spot: Cincinnati, Boise State and Tulsa. All three will need to dominate the biggest teams in their conferences, and they’ll need those same teams to not lose silly games (i.e. Tulsa will need to beat Cincinnati and hope Cincinnati doesn’t lose to someone like Murray State). They’ll also have to go undefeated if they want to have a chance. If they can have those two things working in their favor then they’ll have a shot. Tulsa has a pretty difficult schedule, and an undefeated season would include beating Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Memphis, Cincinnati and SMU. Boise State’s schedule is not that hard, but it does include non-conference foes UCF and Oklahoma State that would help build the resume, plus they come with the name recognition. Cincinnati, like Tulsa, has a pretty tough schedule; they’ll have to deal with Indiana, Notre Dame, UCF, Tulsa and SMU. They also have the benefit of starting the season ranked pretty high. If you’re looking at throwing money down on a group of five team to make the playoffs Cincinnati is your best bet, but I would save your money.
Can the PAC 12 snap their streak of missed playoffs?
Yes. USC is the best bet to do so. One reason is that their schedule isn’t overly difficult. It does include a non-conference game against Notre Dame, but I like them to win that one. In conference they avoid Oregon and Washington, which will significantly increase their chances at heading into the PAC 12 championship (probably against one of those two teams) undefeated. They’ve got a lot of talent. Kedon Slovis is heading into his third straight season under Center with a very good OC calling the shots (Graham Harrell). I also believe we could see a two loss champion from the ACC. If that last bit happens and the winner of this conference goes undefeated or suffers only one loss, the PAC 12 will end their CFP drought.
PREDICTIONS
CFP Bracket: 1 Alabama, 2 Oklahoma, 3 USC, 4 Indiana
There would be so much to love about these matchups. If three years ago you said Indiana would make the four team playoff, everyone would have been like “it’s called the Final Four dummy.” It’d be super exciting to see a non-blue blood like Indiana make it. It would also be really cool seeing Indiana’s defense take on the juggernaut that is Alabama’s offense. And then there’s the Oklahoma-USC game. Two ancient towers of college football. Oklahoma has been on the precipice since Lincoln Riley took over, but their defense has continually let them down. And USC has been trying to regain their relevance since Pete Carroll cut ties. Not to mention a Spencer Rattler vs Kedon Slovis showdown, and the mega offensive minds of Lincoln Riley and Graham Harrell going pound for pound, would make this game extremely fun to watch. I would love to see that game happen.
Championship: 1 Alabama over 3 USC
There’s a lot of history between these two teams, but the perhaps the coolest part would be that USC was the dynasty of the 2000s and Alabama has been the dynasty of the 2010s. Or the fact that it’s East Coast vs West Coast for the first time since the first CFP in 2014 (Ohio State is east coast-ish). This would be exciting on paper, but I believe it would end in the exact same results we saw in last year’s championship, Alabama dominating their opponent.
Heisman: QB Matt Corral (Ole Miss)
Corral is a redshirt Junior. He got a little bit of playing time in 2019, basically splitting starting duties. But last year he was completely handed the reins by Lane Kiffin and the Kiffin-Corral duo came out firing! He immediately showed he can be one of the most exciting passers in the nation. The key to him being viewed as a top candidate for the Heisman, or a top prospect for the NFL, is that he has to avoid the interception pit falls. He had 14 total last season and 11 of those came in just two games (6 against Arkansas, 5 against LSU). That can’t happen again this season. He does have one thing working in his favor that some of the top candidates for the Heisman don’t, he can follow the RGIII path to winning this award. Back when RGIII took home the Heisman he led Baylor to a 9-3 regular season record. Lately you think, “oh that guys out of the running,” when they lose a couple games, cause you gotta have the wins too. But with top players on teams like Baylor or Ole Miss, a 9-3 record looks really good. I think, if Corral can keep from turning the ball over and sinking his team, the Rebels could go 10-2. That’d look great since they haven’t had more than six wins in the last five seasons.
Sleeper: QB Hudson Card (Texas)
I suppose the proper answer would be whichever QB gets the starting nod for Texas, because nothing official has been announced yet. Sark did a tremendous job with Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones over the last two years and whoever he picks to run his offense at Texas will have a chance at taking home some hardware. I think it will be Hudson Card, but if Casey Thompson wins the job his name would fill this spot. Unlike Corral, the winner of this job won’t have the benefit of leading his team to a nice record, Texas will have to be nearly perfect in order for them to have a legitimate chance. Of course a two loss season could be overlooked if it ends in Texas winning the Big 12 for the first time since 2009, and ending Oklahoma’s streak at 6.
Bednarik: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (LSU)
This would be a rarity as only two other Corners have won the award before (Charles Woodson and Patrick Peterson...I consider Minkah Fitzpatrick a Safety). If any Corner is going to be able to do it, it’s Stingley. He’s a very well known name, he’s got amazing coverage skills, and he plays on a team that’s going to get plenty of primetime coverage. Last season he was banged up, but the year before that he posted 38 tackles, 6 interceptions and 15 pass deflections! I don’t see him approaching those numbers with teams likely to target the side of the field he isn’t on. But coverage isn’t just about the flashy stats, it’s also about completion percentage against and QBR against, stats that they track pretty well nowadays. Opposing Quarterbacks won’t be able to avoid him completely, so he’ll get his opportunities to shine and he’ll take full advantage.
Sleeper: LB Payton Wilson (North Carolina State)
Last year Wilson posted 108 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and 2 ints. Those are impressive numbers for a more traditional off-ball Linebacker. I expect those numbers to grow and if I’m right about how well NC State is going to do this year, Wilson will be a big part of why they do, and voters will take note of that. It’s also worth pointing out that Linebacker has won the Bednarik award more than all the other positions combined.
