Lance's 2021 College Conference Picks
You won't see the Independent teams listed, I'll discuss a few of them in Thursday's article. What you will find are my picks to win each conference and a sleeper team to keep an eye on. For those of you who really only enjoy keeping an eye on college to checkout the talent heading to the pros I'll have an article in the next couple weeks with a deeper look at prospects to keep an eye on.
AAC: Cincinnati
Two reasons why the Bearcats remain the team to beat in the AAC, Desmond Ridder and Luke Fickell. They did lose potentially their best Offensive Lineman as well as their two starting Safeties, but they still have talented big name players like Ridder, Myjai Sanders and Ahmad Gardner. The AAC is no walk in the park. If Cincy stumbles teams like UCF, Tulsa, SMU and Memphis will be waiting in the wings, but that’s a big if.
Sleeper: Tulane
Here are some really fun facts that help show why Tulane is a Sleeper. They’ve had a football team since 1893, but have won just 9 conference titles and only 1 since 1949 (1998). Their all-time winning percentage is .451. Since they’ve joined the American Athletic Conference (2014) their overall record has been 35-51. It’s a notoriously difficult school to win at, but Willie Fritz has done a fantastic job as of late. In the last three years they haven’t had a losing season and they’ve made a bowl game in each of those seasons (prior to this stretch they had never made bowl games in back to back years). They have six bowl wins total, Fritz has resided over exactly ⅓ of their bowl wins. That’s all completely insane! I give them an outside chance at winning their first conference title in over two decades because of Fritz, because of their recent success, and because they’re returning nearly all of their starters.
ACC: Miami
NOT CLEMSON??? That’s right, not Clemson. Top teams have off years, it happens, Alabama doesn’t win the SEC every season despite how it seems. I like the Quarterback the Tigers have stepping in to replace Trevor Lawrence, but young signal callers stumble, new players taking over major starting roles can lead to growing pains. Miami has a lot of their starters still in place, minus some pass rushers. D’Eriq King looked good last year before the injury and he’s expected back for the start of the season. They have a big non-conference opener against Alabama, who is breaking in a new QB of their own, and as long as they keep the game close it will look good to the playoff committee and help build their confidence. Beyond that Michigan State could be a sneaky good team, and they have to face NC and NC State, but their schedule is very winnable, an 11-1 regular season isn’t out of the question. I think their team experience will help them if they end up facing Clemson in the ACC championship.
Sleepers: North Carolina State and Boston College
There are a few teams that have the potential to finish at the top of the ACC this year, which is another reason why I think it’ll be tougher on Clemson. Choosing between NC State and BC was too difficult, so I chose both. Everyone wants to talk about North Carolina because of Sam Howell, and that’s allowing the Wolfpack to fly under the radar a bit. Last year they went 8-4, a huge bounce-back from the 4-8 disappointment of 2019. They are also returning nearly every starter. The question mark that would hang over the Quarterback position after seeing the man (Bailey Hockman) who started most of their games last season transfer out, isn’t really a question mark. Hockman left because of Devin Leary. Leary was the starter last year before breaking his leg, which opened the door for Hockman, so technically they are returning their starter under Center as well. NC State will be a very formidable opponent.
When I think Boston College, I think of big Running Backs, mediocre records, and teams that cause problems for even the biggest colleges in the ACC because of their hard fighting mentality. This team still showed that “no opponent too big” thought process last year, and they did finish with a mediocre 6-5 record, but they traded out the big RB for a big QB. Phil Jurkovec is one of the reasons I believe Boston College could make a surprising run. The other reasons include his top pass catcher, Zay Flowers, his second year Head Coach, Jeff Hadley, and his uber-talented Offensive Line, which may be the top unit in the nation (at least top 5). And like NC State, BC also returns a majority of their starters. Watch out for the Eagles.
Big 12: Oklahoma
Been there done that (six straight Big 12 titles), a plethora of returning starters, a brilliant Head Coach and potentially the #1 prospect under Center. The other BIG key to this season is Spencer Rattler being in his second year, he’s not going to have those same early jitters that caused them to lose to Kansas State and hurt them against Iowa State. Another key factor: they hung onto their Defensive Coordinator, added more young talent to the unit and should see growth from key players like Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto. I see Oklahoma heading into the CFP with a perfect record.
Sleeper: Texas
Can you actually consider Texas a sleeper? Since Oklahoma has won six straight and are the heavy favorites to win it again this year, I think anyone can be considered a sleeper in this conference. It also helps that the Longhorns haven’t won a conference title in 12 years. Steve Sarkisian takes over a talented team. According to 247 sports, Texas has finished top 15 in recruiting in each of the last four years, top 10 in three of those four and top 5 in two. So it’s not like he’s taking over a mess, the thing they’ve been missing is a coach that can get the most out of those players. Sark is the man to get the most out of the offensive talent, the question is are his DC hires the right guys for that job. If the answer is yes then Texas could give the Sooners a run this season. If the answer is no, the offense should still be explosive enough to help them win plenty of games, just probably not the Big 12 title.
Big Ten: Indiana
NOT OHIO STATE?? That’s right, not Ohio State. I’m saying it now, Indiana is going undefeated. They’ll have to get through Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Minnesota to do it. Iowa and Ohio State both lost a lot of talent. Usually, for a team like Ohio State that just means sliding the next man in and continuing to do your thing, but this year’s different. They’re only returning 10 players who started 500 or more snaps last season, and one of their new starters will be under Center. Don’t be surprised when there’s a little struggle at times, especially when they’re taking on Indiana who is returning a lot of their starters and who gave that loaded Ohio State team a run for their money a year ago. Iowa is typically an 8-4 type of team, I think we see them slip just a little bit below that. Michigan State will be better, but they’re still a year or two away from competing at the top of the conference again. I think Penn State is overrated heading into this season. And last, but not least, Minnesota will have a better season than they did in 2020, but they aren’t talented enough to hang with Indiana. So, ya, undefeated.
Sleeper: Minnesota
Speaking of, here’s the sleeper team. Tanner Morgan is still the signal caller. Last year was rough and that’s putting it nicely, but this year their O-Line will be back intact, and Mohamed Ibrahim returns. They have the pieces to compete and a coach that inspires his team. Another magical run isn’t out of the question, they just need that defense to step it up.
C-USA: Marshall
Marshall made 6 straight conference championships from 1997-2002 when they were still in the MAC. Since moving to Conference USA (2005), they’ve only made three conference championships, winning just one (2014). They started off last season 7-0 before losing their last three games, including the title game to UAB. They are going through turnover at the Head Coaching position (Doc Holliday was not extended, Charles Huff was brought in as his replacement). I like Huff and what he brings to the table, especially in recruiting. He’ll benefit this year from a team returning most of their starters, all they have to do is make sure they don’t fall apart at the end of the year.
Sleeper: Texas-San Antonio
UTSA has been a part of Conference USA since 2013, but they’ve never finished better than 7-5 (2013 & 2020) and they’ve yet to make a conference championship. But as I just mentioned, they are coming off a 7-5 season; they’re also returning a lot of their starters. This is the best chance the Roadrunners have at winning the conference title.
MAC: Toledo
They have one of the best group of 5 Head Coaches in Jason Candle, and lots of returning players to a team that just went 4-2. I like Candle’s chances of getting another MAC Championship (first since 2017), and putting himself back at the top of Head Coaching candidate lists.
Sleeper: Central Michigan
Jim McElwain is heading into his third season with the Chippewas. He went 8-6 in year one and 3-3 last year. There’s a decent amount of turnover on the offense, but his defense is mostly intact and with him being an offensive mind I see that working out in their favor. The other thing I’m excited about for them is the transfer of QB Jacob Sirmon from Washington. According to 247 Sports, he was a four star, top 100 recruit when he came out of high school back in 2018, but he got stuck in a deep QB room in Washington, so he left. I’d like to see what he can do in McElwain’s offense.
MWC: Nevada
I think it will be Nevada or the reigning MWC champ, San Jose State, that we see take the conference for 2021. I gave the nod to the Wolfpack because of Carson Strong. He’s one of the best Quarterbacks in the country, and while everyone else is focusing on Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell and Kedon Slovis, your eyes should also be watching Strong. He’s a legitimate Heisman contender who should lead Nevada to a conference title and a New Year’s bowl game.
Sleeper: Hawaii
In the strange 2020 season Hawaii quietly went 5-4. They’re returning a lot of their starters for 2021. There isn’t a flashy player name I can throw at you, but you can’t underestimate continuity coupled with a Head Coach that knows what he’s doing (Todd Graham).
PAC 12: USC
This is a good year for USC to finally make their return to the biggest stage. They have so much talent on the team and it all starts with their Quarterback, Kedon Slovis, and Receiver, Drake London, on offense, and Edge Rusher, Drake Jackson, on defense. The schedule is far from daunting, especially since the only chance of them meeting Washington or Oregon is in the PAC 12 title game. This just feels like the perfect storm for USC to make a run to the CFP with a 13-0 record. What will make it even better is the massive conference realignment that’s already started to snowball thanks to Texas and Oklahoma. Everyone is discounting the PAC 12 (for good reason), but USC proving that the conference can still compete with the big dogs would help keep the conference from falling apart like the Big 12 seems to be.
Sleeper: Washington
This is still a talented team that has continued to recruit well and develop their players well. It’s not like Chris Petersen abandoned a sinking ship, and it’s not like Jimmy Lake took over and immediately ran the team into the ground. Last season the team went 3-1 and could have been the representatives from the North in the PAC 12 championship, instead of Oregon, had it not been for COVID. They are currently in the middle of a QB battle between last year’s starter, Dylan Morris, a Senior transfer from Colorado State, Patrick O’Brien, and a highly touted freshman, Sam Huard. Lots of talent among the three, all they have to do is determine who’s the most ready and best fit to run the offense. That guy will have the benefit of not really having to worry about posting crazy high scores, because the defense should be a stingy beast just like it has been for quite a while now. Oregon will remain the favorite in the North, but I see Washington running away from them this year.
SEC: Alabama
It’s gotta either be Alabama or Georgia, right? I was tempted to list Georgia, but the only reason you would actually consider not picking Bama is if you think their shiny new Quarterback can’t get the job done. Bryce Young is very talented, and you shouldn’t have any concerns about how well he’s going to do. He is young though, so could we potentially see a slow start similar to what Oklahoma went through with Rattler last season? It’s definitely a possibility. Bama is of course loaded across the board cause they recruit like no one else. In other words, they don’t lack for starting talent, or depth.
Sleeper: Kentucky
I might be crazy, I might be a brilliant genius who ends up shocking you if the Wildcats push Georgia for the SEC East. Kentucky has been a very scrappy team under Mark Stoops. Last year they went 5-6, but the four years prior to that they went 32-20. They’ve done a really good job defensively as of late and this year won’t be any different in that aspect. Offensively, they have another talented back in Chris Rodriguez Jr, they brought in a swiss-army knife in Wan’Dale Robinson, and they have some talented Quarterbacks that will battle it out (I personally like Joey Gatewood). But the key addition was Liam Coen as the new Offensive Coordinator. They typically hit those 8-5 and 7-6 seasons by relying on their defense and run game, but they need to open things up on offense if they’re going to compete with Georgia and Florida. Coen is the man for that job having spent the last three years working with Sean McVay. I almost forgot to mention their schedule. They don’t face Alabama, Texas A&M or Ole Miss this year, the three teams I expect to finish at the top of the SEC West, and they should be able to sweep all four of their non-conference games (UL Monroe, Chattanooga, New Mexico State and Louisville). So really their only concern should be Georgia and Florida, the two teams they have to be able to run with if they’re ever going to compete for SEC Championships.
Sun Belt: Louisiana
They return just about every single starter from a team that went 10-1 a season ago. Another win is that Billy Napier is still running the show, for one more season at least. I think the Ragin' Cajuns finish the year undefeated, unfortunately Texas, Liberty and a likely conference championship showdown with Coastal Carolina won’t be enough to give them a shot at the four team playoff.
Sleeper: Georgia State
For the first time since they moved up to the FBS (2013), Georgia State has posted back to back winning seasons. They also happen to be returning almost all of their starters. It’ll take a lot to knock off Louisiana or Coastal Carolina, but Georgia State has as good a chance as anyone else in the conference.
