Lance's 2021 Division Predictions
AFC East
The Incumbent: Buffalo Bills
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has done a tremendous job of stocking the cupboards and adding to their weakest areas. The last two years they spent time building around Josh Allen and it paid off in a big way. This year they went out and grabbed a couple of rookies to try and fix their biggest area of need on defense, their Ends. The defense could push for a top ten finish just like the offense and make Buffalo one of the most formidable teams in the NFL.
Biggest Threat: New England Patriots
The Pats struggled throwing the ball last year, and their defense was lackluster. So, they went out this offseason and brought in Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to help out whoever ends up throwing the ball. And they grabbed Matt Judon, Ronnie Perkins, Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux and Kyle Van Noy to help boost their front seven. If Cam Newton still struggles, Mac Jones will be waiting in the wings to take over and help push the Patriots back into playoff contention.
AFC North
The Incumbent: Pittsburgh Steelers
My Pick: Cleveland Browns
I don’t see Big Ben’s arm allowing Pitt to pass by Cleveland and Baltimore this year, I could even see Cincy threatening the Steelers for the #3 spot in this division. The North will come down to a battle between the Browns and the Ravens, and I like Cleveland to win it. They have a tough schedule in front of them, but the talent is there and the upgrades at Linebacker and Defensive Back will help their defense make the leap necessary for them to take the division.
Biggest Threat: Baltimore Ravens
The defense may have new faces at the Edge Rusher positions, but they’re pretty well stacked elsewhere, which should help cover up any issues they have rushing the passer from the outside. And offensively they provided Jackson with new toys in the pass game and they did a solid job of landing Villanueva to replace Orlando Brown. The North is going to be a bloodbath between Cleveland and Baltimore. I liked the Browns just a little more, but it was close.
AFC South
The Incumbent: Tennessee Titans
My Pick: Tennessee Titans
The Titans were always going to be my pick, but man did the Julio Jones trade make me feel more comfortable about it. Defensively they’ll need some players to make an immediate impact so they don’t find themselves toward the bottom of the league again. But offensively they have all the potential to be a top five unit. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will give Defensive Backs headaches and keep teams from trying to stack the box to stop Henry who looks like he’s primed to push for the NFL rushing record.
Biggest Threat: Indianapolis Colts
I’m not a big fan of the Colts this year because I don’t think Wentz can get the job done and his durability makes things even more muddied. But the Texans team is a mess and could push to become the first 0-17 team in year one of the new 18 week schedule. And the Jags have a rookie passer and a defense that still needs a lot of work. That leaves the Colts who have a very good defense and defensive coordinator, as well as a solid running game. That should be enough to allow them to push past Houston and Jacksonville. Question is, will it be enough to grab hold of a wildcard spot?
AFC West
The Incumbent: Kansas City Chiefs
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
There are some factors that could lead you to believe another team might threaten the Chiefs spot at the top of the West, but as long as Mahomes is healthy I just don’t see it happening as things stand right now. A bunch of new faces on the O-Line could hurt their season if they don’t come together quickly, and the defense is still not a premier unit. But with Mahomes running the offense the defense just needs to emulate those mid-2000 Colts units that did just enough to allow Peyton Manning some breathing room.
Biggest Threat: Denver Broncos
It’s highly unlikely any team will beat the Chiefs out in the West (barring a Watson or Rodgers trade to the Broncos or Raiders), but I still have to list a threat. A lot of people are crushing on the Chargers because of Herbert. But I don’t think they’ll be a threat this year with Herbert entering that dreaded sophomore season and having a new OC calling the shots. The Broncos have the better all around team when healthy and they now have a steady QB in Bridgewater who can do a better job of keeping the ball out of their opponent’s hands. Denver’s a sneaky pick to steal a wildcard this year.
NFC East
The Incumbent: Washington Football Team
My Pick: Washington Football Team
This defense is still crazy stacked and the offense should be a lot more explosive with Fitzpatrick under Center and the additions of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown to the Receiving corps. Washington is the most complete looking team in the East and I believe it’s going to show up in the win column.
Biggest Threat: Philadelphia Eagles
This probably isn’t the team you were expecting to see here, and it’s not likely to be the team listed by anyone else, but I like Philly. I like what Hurts did last year with a limited supporting cast. I like knowing that their team, as it stands right now, is healthy. And I love the addition of Devonta Smith. Fortunately, this division still isn’t all that tough as a whole, so finishing second could theoretically be as easy as winning 7 games. I think Philly pushes more toward 9, but you get what I mean.
NFC North
The Incumbent: Green Bay Packers
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
They are the reigning division champs with the reigning MVP announcing he will play for them this year, which makes them the favorites. Don’t put their name down in permanent marker just yet though. We’ve seen drama bleed into a regular season turn a team that should dominate their opponents, into a puddle of mush. With everything Rodgers has already put his teammates through, and the thought that he won’t be back with the team next year hanging over everyone’s head, that could be enough of a distraction to cause the Packers to fall apart.
Biggest Threat: Minnesota Vikings
Cousins is a solid Quarterback, and if their offseason moves for the O-Line pay immediate dividends, Cousins, Jefferson, Thielen and Cook are about to explode. Defensively I still have my concerns here and there, but Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland will help out a secondary that struggled. The returns of Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr and the debuts in purple and gold for Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce are going to provide major boosts to the front seven. This is the only team in the division that can best compete with Green Bay’s all-around talent.
NFC South
The Incumbent: New Orleans Saints
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you bring back your entire starting cast from a Super Bowl winning team you’re obviously going to be favored to win your division. The key will be, as it has been for a few years now between Tampa and New England, will this be the season Brady starts to show his age? If the answer is no, then the Bucs will be just fine. If the answer ends up being yes, Tampa is still talented enough to cover up his shortcomings, but Atlanta and possibly New Orleans will be close behind.
Biggest Threat: Atlanta Falcons
The coaching duo of Arthur Smith and Dean Pees makes me feel good about Atlanta’s prospects for 2021. Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts should thrive under Smith’s tutelage. And Pees has the ability to lift subpar defenders into the realm of above average, he’ll need to work some magic with this group. Though he won’t be completely bereft of talent, Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones are very good players, and A.J. Terrell looks like he could be a solid talent at Corner.
NFC West
The Incumbent: Seattle Seahawks
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The Niners started the offseason off on the wrong foot (two depth players have already suffered season ending injuries), but for the most part this team is healthy again. And this time they won’t fall apart if Garoppolo finds himself hobbled again because they have the talented Trey Lance waiting in the wings. Shanahan has the coaching skill and the team talent to lead the Niners back to the top of the NFC West.
Biggest Threat: Arizona Cardinals
Lots of people are picking the Rams to win the division, meanwhile I don’t even have them as the #2 team in the division. On top of that, I’m taking both of the teams from the West that missed the playoffs last year. There’s a very good chance that I look like a complete moron by the end of the season, but I’m sticking to my guns. Arizona made good improvements to their front seven, but the defense will hinge on how quickly they can get to the Quarterback because the Corners aren’t going to concern anyone. It’s the offense that I’m all in on though. Murray will be in his third year, the Cards added A.J. Green to a Receiver group that won’t require him to face the opponents top Corner, which is going to cause all kinds of problems if he’s healthy. They also improved their O-Line. Better protection will go a long way for Murray. I really like this offense to carry the Cards back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
