Lance's 2021 NFL Season Predictions

Normally with these articles I have a whole long opening where I give some off the wall Super Bowl prediction, and end it with something like, “that will never happen, here are my actual predictions.” This time I’m going to give you a glimpse into the future…

Heading into a season highlighted by a return to some normalcy two underdogs would emerge as unexpected contenders: the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets. The Lions showed that all of their offseason moves and hires were perfect in every way. They built a sturdy, roughneck team that could cram the ball down anyone’s throat. Robert Saleh displayed exactly why the Jets hired him, inspiring his defense to a top ten finish, while the offense flourished under Zach Wilson. The Lions were able to take a wide open NFC North (thanks to Rodgers sticking to his retirement decision) and the #4 seed. The Jets were unable to win the AFC East, but they did take the final wildcard spot with a solid 10-7 finish to the year.

Unfortunately for both of them the Super Bowl was not theirs to make. The Jets got the beating of a lifetime in the opening round, falling to their divisional rivals, the Buffalo Bills. Who would go on to face the Browns and fall to the surprisingly tough Cleveland defense in a hard fought game. The Browns would follow that up by knocking off the back to back AFC Champions, the #1 seed Chiefs.

The Lions would enter the opening round facing off against the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray would torch Detroit, moving into the second weekend with a full head of steam that he would use to also disassemble the reigning Super Bowl champs, #1 seed Tampa Bay. But that fire would be put out in the NFC Championship by the resurgent, #2 seed, 49ers. After a mid-season injury to Garoppolo forced Trey Lance into the lineup San Fran never looked back. Lance showed exactly why they used the third overall pick on him as he posted numbers that would rival the first seven games of Deshaun Watson’s career. And in the NFC Championship he would unload his full arsenal of weapons while the Niners’ defense would crush Murray and company.

This is it, the Super Bowl we all wish would have happened at some point back in the 80s; the Cleveland Browns versus the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams displaying defenses that would make the steel curtain of the 70s jealous. Both teams showing off their shiny, young, talented passers and their top of the league run games. Mayfield vs Lance, Bosa vs Wills, Garrett vs Williams. Cleveland walks away with their first Super Bowl ever, the trophy they’ve been waiting for since the NFL and AFL merged. The one fans expected after a dominant run in the 50s. The one they’ve prayed for since they were given a team again in 1999. And it’s not thanks to Mayfield or Chubb or Garrett. No, no, it’s all thanks to the well built secondary that they had been missing for ages, featuring high draft picks (Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit) and great free agent additions (John Johnson and Troy Hill).

Super Bowl Prediction (for those who didn’t want to read the section above)

Cleveland over San Francisco

Super Bowl I’d love to see

Minnesota vs Tennessee

Reason: This is the Super Bowl I’ve been wanting since I was a kid. The Vikings have always been my team, and the Titans have been my AFC team almost as long thanks to Eddie George and their 90’s jerseys. All the way back in 2002 my dad decided to repaint our coffee table because it was old and rundown. He painted it black, had each of us dip our hands into paint and put them on the table, and then we each got to paint one thing on the table. I painted “Super Bowl XXXVII Minnesota Vikings over Tennessee Titans”. That of course is not how it turned out, but I’ve never stopped dreaming of a Vikings-Titans big game. This is the Super Bowl I’d most love to see in any given year past or present. Even those unfortunate seasons where the Vikings had Christian Ponder under Center and the Titans were rolling with Jake Locker. But this is the first time in a long time that I’ve actually felt like it’s possible. The Titans have the weapons on the offense to take the AFC, they just need a decent season out of their defense. The Vikings are in the same boat, but their returning players and a few offseason moves makes it look like their defense has a much better chance of getting the job done.

AWARDS

MVP Prediction

My Pick: QB Kyler Murray (Arizona)

Why: Last season he had over 3,900 yards passing and over 800 yards rushing, as well as 37 total touchdowns. Now that there’s an extra game on the schedule, and with continued growth on the field and in Arizona’s system, he could legitimately become the first Quarterback ever to pass for over 4,000 yards and rush for over 1,000. As long as Arizona remains on track to make the playoffs Murray will be a threat to win MVP.

Biggest Competition: QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City)

Why: Every time he plays a full season he’ll have a high chance of throwing for over 5,000 yards and 35+ touchdowns which will pretty much keep him in the driver's seat as the favorite to win MVP. With the extra game added to the schedule there’s a very real chance he threatens the single season records in both of those categories.

Dark Horse: RB Alvin Kamara (New Orleans)

Why: Michael Thomas will miss the first six weeks of the season. Drew Brees has retired. This offense is going to funnel through Kamara and if he can keep the Saints in playoff contention he could very well become the first Running Back to win the award since AP did it in 2012. The fact the Quarterbacks have won MVP every year since 2007 with the exception of 2012 means any other position is considered a dark horse. Fun stat: The last time a Receiver won the award was never. I mean a Kicker has won MVP for crying out loud! (it was the strike shortened 1982 season, but my point stands)

Offensive Player of the Year Prediction

My Pick: RB Alvin Kamara (New Orleans)

Why: Provided Jameis Winston wins the starting job, his arm will help keep teams from keying on Kamara. Also along those lines, Kamara really is the #2 weapon in the Saints’ pass game (#1 while Thomas is out), and of course he’s the #1 in their run game, so he’ll continue to see plenty of work. Last season he totaled nearly 1,700 yards and 21 touchdowns. Had it not been for Henry eclipsing 2,000 yards rushing, Kamara would have had a legit shot at winning this award. He should push to improve even more on his numbers from 2020, maybe even becoming the fourth player to go for 1,000/1,000 like I predicted he would last year?

Biggest Competition: RB Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)

Why: The last time McCaffrey was healthy for the entire season (2019) he did something that hadn’t been done in 20 years, he joined the 1,000/1,000 club. It’s safe to assume that whenever McCaffrey is healthy he’s a threat to post statistically dominant seasons and push for awards. The only concern I have is that teams will focus all of their attention on shutting him down this season because Sam Darnold hasn’t proven he can beat teams by himself yet.

Dark Horse: RB Antonio Gibson (Washington)

Why: He’s a second year hybrid Running Back, that’s why he fits the label. I’m picking him because he’s the primary Back in an offense that should be a lot more exciting this year and he offers the versatility necessary to get attention for this award in this day and age. Look at the two guys I have listed above him. They’re the best dual-threat backs in the league. Gibson can be that kind of guy. He had a semi-surprising, very good rookie season. Despite being someone who was viewed as needing some time to grow because he played mostly Receiver in college and not having a full offseason worth of practices, he still managed to finish with over 1,000 total yards and 11 touchdowns. With a full offseason worth of work under his belt, and more touches now that he’s further along in the system, his numbers should make a big jump.

Defensive Player of the Year Prediction

My Pick: OLB T.J. Watt (Pittsburgh)

Why: He’s steadily improved each season in sacks, pressures and QB knockdowns. If he continues that growth then you’re looking at an increase on the 15 sacks, 61 pressures and 26 knockdowns he had last year. I still don’t get how Donald beat him out for the 2020 award. (FYI: Donald had 13.5 sacks, 45 pressures, and 15 knockdowns, as well as 45 total tackles and 14 for loss compared to Watt’s 53 total tackles and 23 for loss)

Biggest Competition: DT Aaron Donald (LA Rams)

Why: The man has won three DPOY awards and all three have come in the last four years, so yes, he is the one you have to beat out to win the award.

Dark Horse: DT Grady Jarrett (Atlanta)

Why: With Dean Pees as the new defensive coordinator in Atlanta there’s a good chance a lot is about to change with the biggest being the scheme. Pees favors a 3-4 front. I see Grady Jarrett filling the Jurrell Casey role in the defense this year. Casey had one of his better seasons in his first year under Pees. Jarrett is younger, just as talented if not more so and has been a solid player who has seemed to be on the verge of becoming a superstar for a few years now. He just needs something to help push him over the top and I think Pees could be that something.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

My Pick: RB Najee Harris (Pittsburgh)

Why: Harris has exactly what it will take to pry this award away from Lawrence. He has the ability to be a dual-threat back. Big Ben is at the end of his career, we saw the drop off in his ability to push the ball downfield, so Harris is on a team that will need to lean on the run and the dump off passes. But he’s also in an offense with plenty of weapons in the pass game that will make teams think twice before trying to stack the box to stop the run. When Barkley won the award three years ago he put up over 2,000 total yards and double-digit touchdowns. I could see Harris pushing for similar numbers. He could even threaten Eric Dickerson’s single season rookie rushing yard record. Etienne almost got my vote, but I felt weird about listing two Jaguars.

Biggest Competition: QB Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville)

Why: Of course the Quarterback taken #1 overall and who is expected to start from day one is the primary competition for anyone trying to win the award. Why? Cause voters love Quarterbacks. Lawrence is expected to be a generational talent, so there’s that too. He also walks into a halfway decent situation in Jacksonville. The defense is bad, so he’s likely to have to throw a lot to try and keep up with opponents. He’ll also have weapons in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, James Robinson and Travis Etienne. There’s one catch; he’ll have to survive his Offensive Line.

Dark Horse: TE Kyle Pitts (Atlanta)

Why: I was going to try and avoid placing first round picks in the dark horse slot for both OROY and DROY, but then I realized that Pitts winning it would make him the first Tight End ever to do so. And he has a great chance to be the first thanks to his freakish size/speed ratio, and a Quarterback who loves his Tight Ends. He’ll have an even better shot if Atlanta can figure out their redzone woes.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

My Pick: LB Jamin Davis (Washington)

Why: This is the first time in recent memory where there really isn’t a primary player who will be predicted to win this award across the board. You’re going to see some people who will predict Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain cause they were the first defensive players taken. Or Micah Parsons because “DaLlaS” (I’m not a Parsons fan, go read my draft board articles if you want to know why). Or Kwity Paye/Jaelan Phillips because they were the top Edge Rushers taken and voters love to see sack totals and QB pressures. I’m going with Davis who has ridiculous athleticism, good coverage instincts and landed on a team with a loaded front four. Seriously, he’s going to have so many opportunities because opponents will be too busy dealing with Chase Young, Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat (don’t forget to mix in Matt Ioannidis and Tim Settle).

Biggest Competition: CB Greg Newsome II (Cleveland)

Why: It was difficult to choose who will be the biggest competition for the award, and a lot of people are going to see Newsome listed here and question my assessment skills. I’m aware he was the fourth Cornerback off the board and he didn’t go until pick 26. That’s not what you should be looking at when trying to choose players for these awards. You need to look at opportunities, and the team around them. Some players are talented enough to make a difference despite the lack of talent surrounding them, and I do think Newsome is one of those guys. But he landed with the Browns, so he won’t have to worry about that. They have players who can get after the QB to disrupt plays, they have a CB1 that will allow Newsome to cover the opponents WR2, and they have a need that he can fill. Last year they were in the bottom half of the league when it came to pass defense. So, even with the talent being there, Newsome’s presence can still be felt if Cleveland’s pass defense makes a jump. And he definitely has the talent to get the job done.

Dark Horse: DE Joseph Ossai (Cincinnati)

Why: He was my top edge rusher in the draft and the Bengals snagged him in the third round. He has a very good skill-set, great athleticism and Cincy needs better play off the edge. Trey Hendrickson was their high-priced free agent addition to help address the need, but they could still use someone to improve the play on the opposite side. Ossai has as good a chance as any to man that spot and with most of the Offensive Line attention being on Hendrickson, he should get plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities to get in the backfield and wreck plays. Sacks are the fancy stat that voters love.

Comeback Player of the Year Prediction

My Pick: RB Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)

Why: Two years ago he became the third back ever to have a 1,000/1,000 season and last year he missed 13 games while dealing with injuries. Seems like he would be the most obvious candidate for CPOY.

Biggest Competition: OLB Chandler Jones (Arizona)

Why: After five straight seasons of double-digit sack totals Jones managed just one in five games of play last year. He was dinged up, but as long as he’s back to 100% this year there’s no reason he can’t push for the sack title. He’s only 31, so there should still be juice left in the tank and the Cards added J.J. Watt and Zaven Collins to their front seven, giving teams more players to account for. I could see another 15-20 sack season and a run at CPOY for Jones.

Dark Horse: QB Jameis Winston (New Orleans)

Why: In case you forgot, the last time Winston started he went for 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Sean Payton knows how to run a vertical offense, which would allow Winston to put up numbers like that again. He’ll need to cut down on those interceptions though. I’m hopeful that he’ll be able to after having spent a year behind Brees, and of course the eye correction surgery. But first, he needs to win the starting job!

Coach of the Year Prediction

My Pick: Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco)

Why: Two years removed from the Super Bowl. This team is still loaded and they have a very talented rookie who can step in if Jimmy Garoppolo gets hurt again. Last year they dealt with all kinds of injuries which led to the 6-10 record and a last place finish in the NFC West. As long as they stay healthy they should be back in the running to win their division and post one of the better records in the NFC. If they are able to pull off both of those feats Shanahan will be at the top of the COY list. But anything short of that won’t be very impressive, because a 6-10 record the year before or not, this team is way too talented not to finish at the top. Of course if you go from 6-10 to 13-4 and win your division, well that’s going to be a lot more impressive than a coach who has double digit win totals in back to back seasons.

Biggest Competition: Sean McDermott (Buffalo)

Why: A lot of people felt McDermott was going to win it last year and then Cleveland finished out the way they did, made the playoffs for the first time in what felt like four decades, and Stefanski walked away with the award. Buffalo got stronger through the draft by adding to one of their weakest points (edge rush) with their first two picks. Allen will head into yet another season under Brian Daboll. And while the rest of the AFC East did improve, there is a good chance two of the teams will be starting rookie Quarterbacks and one will be starting a second year QB. That bodes well for the Bills and McDermott, who should take home another divisional title and have a shot at the #1 seed.

Dark Horse: Arthur Smith (Atlanta)

Why: Atlanta is probably my biggest sleeper team. I love the coaching combination of Arthur Smith and Dean Pees. I think the offensive weapons Atlanta already has in place will fit right into Smith’s scheme, and Pees is exactly what the defense needs to start improving in overall play. Unless New Orleans’ defense can push for a top ten finish and Winston or Hill propel the offense back toward the top of the league, the Saints are looking like a team that will be trending down. Carolina is still a couple years away from being really competitive in the division. And Tampa should be at the top, unless age finally takes Brady out. So, in my eyes, Atlanta has a legit shot at the #2 spot in the NFC South and a wildcard bid. If Smith can make that happen in his first season he could easily follow in Kevin Stefanski’s footsteps.