Lance's 2021 Week 1 Predictions
Every week during the season I’ll be putting out three articles. My Tuesday article will be a brief recap of the week that just finished up and it will include players to target on the waiver wire. My Wednesday article is going to be a new series following my fantasy team for my work league where I put my near-zero Wide Receiver draft strategy to the test. And my Thursday article will include my predictions for the upcoming week’s games, and my one fantasy start and sit for each position. Because this is the opening week I’m getting my Thursday Article out on Tuesday. I wish you all luck in the fantasy season to come, and I hope this helps a little.
Overall Record: 0-0
Tampa Bay over Dallas
I don’t see this one being close, the Bucs are the better team hands down. Their offense is built to destroy defensive units like the Cowboys, and their defense is good enough to shut down Prescott and company.
Seattle over Indianapolis
Even if he’s healthy, I’m not buying the Wentz hype. Last year wasn’t a fluke, and neither are the never ending list of injuries. Seattle’s defense still isn’t very good and there’s a chance Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts to a win here, but give me early season Russell Wilson.
Jacksonville over Houston
I’ve listed James Robinson as a start below, but I’d also recommend Trevor Lawrence and Laviska Shenault. The Jags win easily enough and the conversation after the game turns to, “Are the Jags for real, or are the Texans just that bad?”
Atlanta over Philadelphia
A bit of a toss-up for me. I think Hurts is going to be a lot of fun to watch this season and Devonta Smith is going to help A LOT with that, but the O-Line concerns me, as does every area on defense that doesn’t have a hand in the ground at the start of the play. My feelings for Atlanta are very, very similar (except Pitts is the one who will be a lot of fun to watch this year). I gave the tiebreaker to the home team.
Washington over LA Chargers
There’s a lot of smoke coming out of LA for Herbert and the revamped O-Line. This will be a great test for both. Washington’s defense is about as stacked as it gets in the NFL, and it’s the reason I’m taking the Football Team to pull this one off.
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
I don’t see this one being as close as some seem to think it will be. Buffalo will dominate on both sides of the ball and run away with this one.
San Francisco over Detroit
There are a couple teams I could see giving that big surprise week 1 performance and then go on to do absolutely nothing for the rest of the year, Detroit is one of those teams. I’m gonna stick with a healthy Niners team though, especially since they have so much talent top to bottom.
Minnesota over Cincinnati
When looking at who to take in week 1 you have little to go off of. All you really have are injuries, offseason moves, and how each team did last season. Based on that I was able to feel confident taking the Vikings who get to face Joe Burrow returning from injury, and who get to go against one of the worst run defenses from last year, meanwhile Minnesota was one of the best run offenses. (In case you weren’t sure, you should definitely start Dalvin Cook this week)
Carolina over NY Jets
It’s Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson’s revenge game. I could see Carolina struggling some defensively with little tape to go off of for Zach Wilson and a very talented group of Receivers to have to deal with, but the edge goes to Carolina’s offense who can take full advantage of the lack of talent on the Jets defense.
Tennessee over Arizona
This was a difficult game to predict too. Ultimately it came down to Arizona’s secondary vs Julio Jones/A.J. Brown. The Cards are hurting badly at Corner, which means they’re going to have to dedicate extra resources to deal with Tennessee’s dynamic duo, and that opens up the door for Henry.
Cleveland over Kansas City
I’m going with the upset here. I love what the Browns did defensively and I believe they’re in a great position to compete with the explosiveness of KC’s offense.
New England over Miami
I love the moves the Pats made to replenish their team, I love Mac Jones under Center, and I love the players returning after opting out last year. As I mentioned in an article over the summer, Miami’s defense relied heavily on turnovers last year and that’s why they looked so good statistically, that’ll be hard to duplicate again here in week 1 and for the season.
Denver over NY Giants
Denver’s defense will dominate this game and all the offense will need to do is control the clock and hang onto the ball. Teddy does a pretty good job of not turning the ball over and Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should help control the clock. Of course, the Giants secondary did not look good during the preseason (even in the practice updates I saw), so this could be a complete blowout with Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler and Fant being too much for the G-men to handle.
Green Bay over New Orleans
One of the harder games to predict with the change in venue and the stats that accompany Rodgers and playing in the state of Florida, but I’m sticking with Green Bay who is the more complete team top to bottom.
LA Rams over Chicago
With Andy Dalton standing in the pocket and the terrible shape Chicago’s O-Line is in, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears are down 20-0 heading into halftime with less than 50 yards total, causing them to throw Justin Fields into the fire. It wouldn’t help much though, Fields has a tendency to hang onto the ball, which would only cause further problems. The Rams take this one, though Stafford’s first game action in a new system could lead to some slowness offensively.
Baltimore over Las Vegas
This could easily prove to be my worst pick of the group. Baltimore’s looking snakebit and they’re especially hurting at the skill positions. I’m sticking with them though, because I believe their defense will lead the way. It also helps that Jackson can take a game over himself and the Raiders look like a bottom five defense.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 0-0
QB Start: Sam Darnold vs NY Jets
Outside of the obvious “REVENGE GAME” take, Darnold is set up for a big debut in Carolina. He has a talented play caller, a stacked group of targets and a weak Jets secondary to throw against. Chances are Darnold is available in your league, so if you don’t like your starting QBs week 1 matchup, go get him!
QB Sit: Dak Prescott at Tampa Bay
Here are the reasons Prescott should be on your bench for week 1: He’s returning from a season ending injury and will probably be a little rusty, it’s supposed to be rainy, and Tampa’s defense is stacked. Prescott was a beast before he went down last season, but he also had his three big games against the Falcons, Seahawks and Browns, all three were 20th or worse against the pass. Do yourself a favor, put him on your bench and go grab Darnold to start this week.
RB Record: 0-0
RB Start: James Robinson at Houston
It’s Robinson’s backfield once again, and in case you forgot after the Etienne pick happened, Robinson posted over 1,400 total yards with 10 total touchdowns last year. The Jags will need to use Robinson to take some of the pressure off Lawrence, plus Houston’s defense looks primed to finish bottom five in every major stat category (my humble opinion, and I know I’m not alone in that thought).
RB Sit: Aaron Jones at New Orleans (played in Jacksonville)
The Saints were one of the best teams against the run last season, and the Packers are already dealing with injuries on the O-Line, which smells like a recipe for disaster. Working in Jones’ favor is the game being in Jacksonville, outdoors, in what’s expected to be poor weather conditions. Side note, I think Jones may be the next Running Back we see sign a big new contract and fall apart immediately after.
WR Record: 0-0
WR Start: Devonta Smith at Atlanta
I expect some improvement from the Falcons defensively, but their secondary figures to still be a trouble spot due to the lack of higher-end talent. Smith is excellent at creating separation and he should reap the benefits of that in his rookie debut.
WR Sit: Allen Robinson at LA Rams
The Rams had the top pass defense last year and they return most of the starters from that unit. Robinson did have a decent game against them in 2020 (4 catches, 70 yards), but Chicago’s O-Line is worse off and I think Dalton is in for a long day. Robinson’s (and his fantasy coach’s) only hopes may hinge on garbage time production, not something you can rely on.
TE Record: 0-0
TE Start: Tyler Higbee vs Chicago
With Stafford now in town and Gerald Everett in Seattle, Higbee’s production should rise. This week will be a good start to that against Chicago who was just plain not good when it came to covering Tight Ends last year.
TE Sit: Mike Gesicki at New England
Gesicki has under 100 yards and only 1 touchdown in his career against the Patriots, and New England just restocked the cupboards defensively. Sit him if you have another option.
K Record: 0-0
K Start: Jake Elliott at Atlanta
Elliott was one of the least effective Kicking options in fantasy last season, but that also had a lot to do with the Eagles attempting the second lowest number of Field Goals. I see this game being a decently high scoring, close game between two teams with holes defensively and offensive weapons that can exploit those holes. “High scoring” and “close game” are usually things that lead to great fantasy production for Kickers. Koo, Atlanta’s Kicker, is a must start, but after finishing as the #2 Kicker in fantasy land in 2020, that seems a little too mainstream to make him my pick here.
K Sit: Daniel Carlson vs Baltimore
Carlson was pretty solid last year, as was Carr and the rest of the Raiders offense, and the Ravens defense had some serious turnover up front which might lead some to believe that Carlson is a week 1 streaming option. I’d avoid that line of thought. The Raiders O-Line endured a lot of turnover as well and the Ravens secondary is so good it allows their pass rushers the time needed to get to the QB. I see this being a low-scoring week 1 outing for the Raiders.
Defense Record: 0-0
Defense Start: Denver Broncos vs NY Giants
The Giants offense is not a threat, and thanks to a suspect Offensive Line, I believe the Broncos are going to have their way with them in week 1. Miller and Chubb lead the charge with a stacked secondary jumping on turnover opportunities.
Defense Sit: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston
I’ve seen the Jags defense getting some love in the projected point totals for week 1, but I’m telling you not to stream them. The Jags defense still has a ways to go before they are usable in fantasy formats, and while I do believe the Texans are set to be the worst team in the league, Tyrod Taylor does a very good job of not turning over the ball. Plus, week 1 is always bound for a few surprises from teams that are expected to be awful (see Jacksonville Jaguars, week 1 of 2020).
