Lance's 2021 Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Waiver Priorities

The fall breeze has started to move in, my wife’s family is talking about our annual trip to one of the local farms for some fall fun, and we just enjoyed a weekend full of football. It is the most wonderful time of the year. There were so many things that happened in week 1 that it’s difficult to take it all in, so I’m going to try and make quick quips about some of the bigger items. Also worth noting, I was at the Vikings-Bengals game on Sunday, so I did get to see that live, but all of my other early game info is from what I could find after the games.

-Dak Prescott proved me wrong big time. I thought for sure it was going to be a rough outing for Dallas going up against Tampa’s defense and Prescott just returning from injury. But he lit it up.

-Speaking of no rust, getting to see Joe Burrow live was an awesome thing. Yes, he was torching my Vikings, but he was a lot of fun to watch. The other surprise from that game was Cincy’s defense. Maybe it was just how bad Minnesota’s O-Line was, but their defense looked completely different from what we saw last year.

-Don’t blow the Texans' win too far out of proportion. Like I said when I made my picks, weird things can happen in week 1. We knew the Jags defense was still not very good. The surprising thing from this game was Lawrence throwing three picks against a porous Houston defense.

-In that same manner, let’s not run too far ahead with Jalen Hurts’ performance. Look, I really like Hurts, and his 77% completion rate was by far the best stat he had, but let’s remember it was against Atlanta’s defense! I have high hopes for what Dean Pees can do with that unit long term, but their secondary is still not great and this was the first game in the new scheme.

-Washington may have lost, but there were two positives taken away. One, their defense held Herbert and company to 20 points. And two, after Fitzpatrick’s injury the offense didn’t fall apart. Heinicke (11/15 122 yards, 1 touchdown) stepped in and performed admirably, so don’t count out the Football Team just yet.

-I’m making the Pitt-Buffalo game two parts, cause it needs to be separated. For as good as Pitt’s defense looked, their offense looked equally as bad. It’s not a good sign if your QB attempts 32 passes and gains less than 200 yards. It’s also not a good sign if your RB averages 2.8 YPC a year after you had the worst run blocking O-Line in the NFL.

-As for Buffalo, just wow. Was this Josh Allen saying he got paid, so now he can go back to his old ways? Because there were some pretty ugly misses. Maybe it was all Pitt’s defense and next week we’ll see Allen return to his 2020 form. The Bills organization better hope so.

-Three rookie Quarterbacks started week 1, none of them won and Mac Jones looked the best. New England’s offense looks a whole lot better than it did last year and Jones will give them a legit shot at winning each week.

-All those people out there that were hinting at Chandler Jones being washed up, did you get the message? In case you didn’t let me help you out, FIVE SACKS! Kyler Murray looked good, Chase Edmonds looked good, but the real key was how big of a monster Arizona’s defense was with Jones leading the charge.

-I don’t want to take too much away from Detroit’s crazy comeback and Goff’s performance, but San Fran’s secondary was a worry area to begin with and now it’s banged up. Goff did a fantastic job, especially considering what he has around him, but don’t expect 338 yard, 3 touchdown performances every week. Also, the Niners better do something about that secondary, or they aren’t going to succeed in a loaded NFC West.

-New Orleans vs Green Bay was truly a tale of two Quarterbacks. Winston, the interception king, threw five touchdowns with ZERO ints. Rodgers, the king of the TD-INT Ratio, tossed two picks with ZERO touchdowns. I’m hoping this will light a fire under Rodgers considering I have him in two of my fantasy leagues.

-Between the string of injuries and the fourth quarter collapse, Baltimore is looking more and more like this year’s version of the 2020 49ers.

FANTASY WAIVER WIRE TARGETS

QB: Tyrod Taylor (Houston)

I just finished saying don’t blow Houston’s win out of proportion and then I list their QB as the target on the wire, so let me explain. Taylor is Houston’s QB1 unless Watson decides to play this year (very slim chance). Houston’s more than likely going to play a lot of games from behind, that means Taylor is going to have to throw the ball. He does a terrific job at limiting his turnovers, he’s going to have the volume, he’s already shown a nice connection with Brandin Cooks, and Houston received my easiest SOS for fantasy QBs prior to the season. If you’re already hurting bad enough to need a replacement at Quarterback, then your season is probably a wash, so why not pull the trigger on Taylor?

RB: Elijah Mitchell (San Francisco)

If you read my NFL Draft Grades article then maybe you’re one of the lucky few to already have Mitchell rostered. With the Mostert injury Sermon will likely be active next week, and we can never count on Shanahan to consistently feed one player in his backfield, but Mitchell should be given every opportunity to build off his 100 yard, 1 touchdown performance. He’s going to be the hottest waiver wire addition, so you better hope you have the top waiver priority in your league.

RB: Kenneth Gainwell (Philadelphia)

Another rookie. He touched the ball 11 times (to Sanders’ 19) and vultured a touchdown. His presence also made Boston Scott obsolete. He offers explosiveness and speed too, so 11 touches could prove fruitful. Plus, we could see that touch total go up as the season wears on. I almost listed Mark Ingram here, but I don’t see Houston having leads large enough to feed him 26 times every game.

WR: Sterling Shepard (NY Giants)

He’s rostered on 40% of teams in Yahoo, but here’s why that number should go up. First of all, the Giants looked awful in every aspect of their game on Sunday, which means, like Houston, they should be in plenty of situations that cause them to throw the ball a lot. Second of all, Shepard was the best looking Receiver in this unit and as long as he stays healthy that shouldn’t change much. And third of all, he had 9 targets. Looking at fantasy point totals from the week before can be misleading. A lot of people are going to jump on Christian Kirk, but his 5 targets aren't going to be something you can consistently rely on. Shepard’s 9 will be.

WR: Nelson Agholor (New England)

If Jakobi Meyers is available I’d go with him first, but his rostered percentage on Yahoo is 61%, whereas Agholor is 33%. A lot of people avoided the Patriots Receivers because they didn’t know what to expect from Mac Jones or the offense as a whole. Now we have an idea and Meyers (9 targets) and Agholor (7 targets) are going to lead the charge.

TE: James O’Shaughnessy (Jacksonville)

During my Preseason Deep Sleeper articles I mentioned Tyler Kroft and talked about how young passers like using their Tight Ends as a security outlet. O’Shaughnessy appears to have been exactly that for Trevor Lawrence with his 8 targets and 6 receptions. He’s not an explosive athlete who is going to compete with Kelce and Waller for the top Tight End in fantasy, but he can be a consistent option if you were unable to get a top Tight End in your draft.

TE: David Njoku (Cleveland)

Perhaps this is a “wait a week” situation. Given all the receiving options Cleveland has on offense you may want to see if Njoku gets solid use again, but I wouldn’t wait too long. Unlike O’Shaughnessy, Njoku can be that explosive Tight End option. He just needs the opportunities and in week 1 he led all the Browns Tight Ends in targets with five (tied with Landry and Schwartz), and he led the team in receiving yards with 76 (about 25 yards per reception).

K: Evan McPherson (Cincinnati)

You may be streaming Kickers already, and that’s alright, but if you grab McPherson you may not have to stream anyone else except on his bye week. The rookie looks like the real deal. He nailed both his Field Goals (one from 50+) and the Bengals offense was cooking with Burrow at the helm. If you are only interested in streaming your Kicker, then McPherson is still a good option this week as he gets a matchup with the Bears who just gave up 12 fantasy points to Matt Gay.

D: Las Vegas Raiders

This was a tough one because most of the defenses that have the better matchups have a very high rostered percentage. And the defenses that aren’t on many fantasy teams that do have the “favorable matchups” are going against teams that I think just had bad week one performances and will bounce back. So, I’m gonna go out on a limb with my streamable defense and pick the Raiders. They did well enough against Baltimore to make me believe they can take advantage of an offense that scored only 16 points (the other touchdown came off a blocked punt) and managed just 252 total yards. As long as Carr and company don’t turn the ball over, they can keep the Steelers to a lower score, and their pass rushers can dominate the makeshift Pitt O-Line (they did just rack up 3 sacks on Lamar Jackson).