Lance's 2021 Week 10 Predictions
Last Week: 7-7
Overall Record: 83-53
Baltimore over Miami
The strengths of the offenses for these two matches up with the strengths of the defenses, so as a tiebreaker I chose the better team. And I don’t mean by record (though Baltimore does lead in that category) I mean by having watched both of these teams on the field throughout this season, Baltimore is the better team.
Buffalo over NY Jets
Buffalo likes to throw the ball A LOT and the Jets pass defense has been surprisingly good this year. But I’m still going to take the Bills because if they can figure out that running the ball is also an option, then they’ll find the Jets run defense is non-existent.
Tampa Bay over Washington
A rematch of the 2020 wild card game. These teams are on two very different trajectories though, so I doubt it will be as close as that game was. With or without AB and Godwin, Brady should be able to move the ball easily, and Fournette should be able to bounce back.
Atlanta over Dallas
It might sound crazy, but Atlanta’s defense has been more locked down than Dallas’. They allow less YPA, and less YPC when playing on the road, then Dallas allows at home. I don’t think we’ll see the same Cowboys team we saw against Denver, but I do see them falling for the second week in a row.
Tennessee over New Orleans
No Derrick Henry doesn’t really affect the Titans in this one. The Saints run defense is so stifling that it forces teams to throw and throwing is definitely an option against New Orleans, especially when the Saints are at home. They allow almost 3 more YPA when playing at home! I expect to see Tannehill, Brown and Jones taking advantage of that.
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
The Colts are rolling, and despite their surprise win over Buffalo, Jacksonville is not. The Colts can basically follow the exact game plan from a week ago, which was to give the ball to Taylor and Hines and let them do the work, while sprinkling in passes here and there.
Pittsburgh over Detroit
Pitt looks like they’ll be without Claypool this week, but with how bad Detroit’s defense is Diontae Johnson and James Washington should be more than enough for Pitt through the air. And they can easily rely heavily on Najee Harris to get the win if they have to.
Cleveland over New England
With OBJ gone the Browns looked like the team we saw last year. I think we’ll see that carry over, and progress further as the season races toward the finish line. The Pats have been playing much better football too lately, but did you know all four of their losses have been at home?
Minnesota over LA Chargers
The Eagles almost took the Chargers down last week using the exact method Minnesota needs to use: run the ball. LAC is allowing 5.0 YPC, the most in the NFL. Minnesota can run to control the clock and to take pressure off their defense.
Arizona over Carolina
The Panthers are running with Phillip Walker under Center this week, and there’s a chance the Cards may have Colt McCoy starting for the second straight week. I’ll give the edge to Arizona who showed last week they can adjust their offense well to fit the change in passer.
Denver over Philadelphia
Denver’s done well against the run at home, while they’ve been more beatable through the air. With the way Hurts has thrown over the last five weeks, that doesn’t bode well for Philly.
Green Bay over Seattle
This is assuming that Rodgers is also back. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of Seattle’s slack defense.
Las Vegas over Kansas City
Vegas has been good against the pass and bad against the run; the Chiefs have struggled to run the ball. K.C. has been bad in all aspects defensively, and the Raiders have shown they can move the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being a two score or more win by Vegas.
LA Rams over San Francisco
After the way the Niners played against the Cardinals can we actually expect them to do any better this week? I don’t think we can, especially since their bigger defensive weakness (the pass) tends to be LAR’s preferred way of moving the ball. If this goes the way I think it will, this might be the last week we see Garoppolo starting for San Fran, they’ll need to change something to try and create a spark and next week they have the Jags, a good defense to roll Trey Lance back out against.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 10-8
QB Start: Matt Ryan at Dallas
Ryan is coming off his second best fantasy performance of the year and has a good chance at an encore presentation. Why, you ask? Well, Dallas allows the third most fantasy points to opposing Quarterbacks at home. They did just allow Bridgewater to finish as QB6 and his point total (21.86) was on the lower end of what they’ve allowed at home.
QB Sit: Kirk Cousins at LA Chargers
Cousins is having a very good statistical season, but the Chargers have been tough on Quarterbacks, especially at home! I’d leave him on your bench/waiver wire this week, especially since Minnesota can be a run heavy team when allowed and LAC is awful against the run.
RB Record: 11-7
RB Start: Zack Moss/Devin Singletary at NY Jets
This is an “if, then” situation. If Moss doesn’t clear concussion protocol in time, then Singletary becomes the start. I’m wary of listing anyone from the Buffalo backfield because Josh Allen likes to run, and Buffalo has been very pass heavy. However, Allen has been sporadic and the Jets pass defense is much better than their run defense, so the Bills can do Allen a favor by running the ball to take the pressure off him.
RB Sit: Adrian Peterson vs New Orleans
Don’t let Cordarrelle Patterson’s numbers from last week fool you. The Saints are allowing 3.1 YPC, and Patterson did his damage through the air, downfield, essentially running Receiver routes. That’s not AP’s game, so if you grabbed him after the Derrick Henry injury, do not start him this week.
WR Record: 10-8
WR Start: Tyler Johnson at Washington
The Football Team allows the second most fantasy points to Receivers at home and Johnson is coming off a 5 reception, 6 target game with Antonio Brown out of the lineup. It looks like AB won’t play again this week, which gives Johnson appeal as a flex starter, and there’s a chance Chris Godwin won’t play, which would boost Johnson even further.
WR Sit: Tim Patrick vs Philadelphia
Philly has allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing Receivers on the road and beyond that you can’t trust Patrick to perform like he did against Dallas again this week. Last week was not Patrick’s usual, he hadn’t scored since week 6 and he hadn’t posted 80+ yards since week 5. DON’T CHASE THE POINTS.
TE Record: 13-5
TE Start: Dalton Schultz vs Atlanta
Atlanta’s been bad against Tight Ends on the road and Schultz has seen at least 5 targets in every game but one this year, that’s a good recipe for a nice fantasy game.
TE Sit: Tyler Higbee at San Francisco
Higbee hasn’t been an over the top producer for the position in fantasy but he has had a few good games and last week he did total 10 targets. It’s a bad matchup though, San Fran is allowing the second least fantasy points to opposing Tight Ends at home, but the 11th most to Receivers, this should be a Kupp, Woods and Jefferson friendly game.
K Record: 9-9
K Start: Chris Boswell vs Detroit
I listed him as my waiver target for the position because Detroit allows a lot of points to opposing Kickers. You’ll notice my record for Kicker and Defense is 9-9, that’s because good teams are going to score and bad teams aren’t regardless of competition, but I still like to take some fliers now and again and that’s where I go wrong. This isn’t exactly one of those times though. Boswell is on a decent team, they should score and Detroit shouldn’t stand in the way of that.
K Sit: Nick Folk vs Cleveland
The Pats aren’t exactly lighting up scoreboards every week, but Folk has had three double-digit games out of his last five, so it’s a bit of a flier. Cleveland has allowed very few points to opposing Kickers this year, home or away, it hasn’t mattered. Six of the nine opposing Kickers have scored four or less points.
Defense Record: 9-9
Defense Start: Baltimore Ravens at Miami
I usually try to avoid listing Thursday night performers, but I always seem to have at least one. Baltimore scored negative points against Minnesota a week ago, but that could have been predicted because Minnesota is allowing just under 4 points to opposing defenses on average. On the opposite side is Miami who has allowed an average of 12.3 points to opposing defenses at home this year.
Defense Sit: Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota
Since I mentioned what the Vikings have done in the blurb above I figured I’d better list the Chargers as my sit for this week.
