Lance's 2021 Week 11 Predictions
Last Week: 5-8-1
Overall Record: 88-61-1
New England over Atlanta
The Pats are rolling, everything seems to be clicking and Atlanta doesn’t pose much of a threat to try and wreak havoc on Mac Jones.
New Orleans over Philadelphia
The Saints are playing better defense on the road and I just don’t think Philly’s defense is good enough to match them.
NY Jets over Miami
Miami might be on a 2-game win streak, but both games were at home where they play much better football. As a matter of fact, outside of their week 1 win over the Pats, they’ve allowed 23+ points in each of their road games. Two keys here for the Jets, get their starting Quarterback in a rhythm and get after Tagovailoa.
Carolina over Washington
Strictly choosing the Panthers because I think Newton is going to come in with a big chip on his shoulder. The loss of Chase Young doesn’t help matters for the Football Team, even if he wasn’t blowing the doors off the box score.
Buffalo over Indianapolis
Indy is playing good football, but Wentz makes too many mental mistakes to be able to get past a high-end defense like the one the Bills have been rolling with.
Cleveland over Detroit
The Browns are going to have a lot of pent up aggression when they take on the Lions and they’ve got the talent to completely destroy Detroit. This one may get ugly.
Jacksonville over San Francisco
Letdown game for the Niners? That’s how I’m viewing it. San Fran just got a big win over a divisional rival and a week later they’re playing a bottom dweller that they could easily overlook. Bonus for the Jags, the Niners are allowing 4.6 YPC on the road, and Jacksonville likes to run the ball when given the opportunity to do so.
Tennessee over Houston
Houston’s defense is bottom five in YPA allowed and bottom ten in YPC allowed. That means opposing offenses can typically move the ball on them efficiently. Expect to see better play out of Adrian Peterson/D’Onta Foreman, and a nice big game out of Ryan Tannehill and hopefully A.J. Brown.
Minnesota over Green Bay
I think these two are going to split the series this year, and I’m gonna take the home teams in both games. Minnesota’s home defense is the polar opposite of their road defense, and their offense has consistently found ways to move the ball and score. They’re currently averaging 23.4 PPG to Green Bay’s 18, and 369.1 YPG to Green Bay’s 309.9.
Baltimore over Chicago
I think we’ll see Baltimore’s offense get back on track this week. They also, surprisingly, play better defense on the road than they do at home (allowing 8.8 YPA at home vs 6.5 YPA on the road, and 4.4 YPC at home vs 3.9 YPC on the road).
Cincinnati over Las Vegas
The Bengals had a rough outing just before their bye, but they were moving right along before that. The Raiders just look plain lost. Cincy has had the rest and prep time to come in this week and destroy Vegas.
Arizona over Seattle
I’m taking the Cards if and only if Murray is healthy. Seattle has too many holes to be able to keep Arizona’s offense in check and one big question mark on offense that makes me doubt they can keep up with a Murray-led offense. However, if Murray isn’t able to go then there’s no way I can pick that mess we saw last week to beat Russell Wilson.
Dallas over Kansas City
I still think the Chiefs are frauds, and they got the struggling Raiders at the right time. If I’m right, Dallas will dispose of them easily.
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh
I don’t think Pitt is as good as their record reflects and I don’t think the Chargers are as bad as their record makes it seem. Look for Allen and Williams to take advantage of Pitt’s shoddy outside Corner play and for Ekeler to take advantage of the same holes Swift did last week.
Tampa Bay over NY Giants
Tampa’s offense struggled last week, but they can get back on track against the Giants, especially if they do one thing: run the ball to set up the pass. The Giants are allowing 4.4 YPC on the road this year and Fournette has shown a spark we hadn’t seen in a few years.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 10-10
QB Start: Joe Flacco vs Miami
Go big or go home right?! ...Right? I saw this morning that Flacco has been named the starter for the Jets on Sunday, so here we go. I mentioned a couple weeks ago that Miami is stingy against opposing Receivers at home, but not so much on the road. Same can be said about opposing QBs. They allow the third most points to the position on the road. If you feel like taking a flier this week, this is the flier to take.
QB Sit: Matt Ryan vs New England
The Pats have been tough on QBs on the road anyways, but it’s important to keep in mind how they’ve been playing lately as well. Plus I listed Ryan as the start last week and he embarrassed me, so now he gets the sit.
RB Record: 12-8
RB Start: A.J. Dillon at Minnesota
The Vikings rank 31st in points allowed to QBs at home, but 10th in points allowed to RBs. That’s a good thing for Dillon who should basically be a one man band in Green Bay’s backfield this week.
RB Sit: Darrel Williams vs Dallas
DON’T CHASE THE POINTS! He blew up against the Raiders who allow the 8th most fantasy points to opposing RBs at home. All of his double-digit performances have come against teams that are top ten in points allowed to the position (to go with Vegas, Philly is 9th at home, and NYG is 2nd on the road), the exception was Washington. Dallas ranks 23rd on the road, so it’s better if you don’t roll with Williams this week.
WR Record: 11-9
WR Start: Brandin Cooks at Tennessee
Since his red hot start to the year he’s been up and down. This should be an up week against the Titans who allow the third most fantasy points to Receivers at home.
WR Sit: Michael Pittman at Buffalo
I usually don’t list players going against Buffalo cause it’s pretty obvious how well Buffalo’s defense is playing, but I’ll make an exception since Pittman ranks 10th in fantasy points. Buffalo has only allowed 3 receiving touchdowns to WRs all season long, and they have yet to allow a Receiver to go for 100+ yards on them. If you can afford to, this would be a good week to sit Pittman.
TE Record: 13-7
TE Start: Adam Trautman at Philadelphia
Philly can’t cover Tight Ends to save their lives this season and Trautman has seen a serious uptick in targets recently. He’s widely available in Yahoo leagues, so if you’re hurting he's a good player to make a move for.
TE Sit: Austin Hooper vs Detroit
He scored last week, he also tallied 5 targets and Detroit looks like a juicy matchup just because it’s Detroit. Don’t let that fool you though, the Lions have allowed the 3rd lowest point total to TEs on the road. Plus, they’re allowing the 9th most to WRs and 4th most to RBs on the road. It’s the kind of game where the Browns Tight Ends fade into the background.
K Record: 10-10
K Start: Jason Sanders at NY Jets
I chose not to list Chase McLaughlin and continue my attack on Detroit. The Jets allow the second most points to opposing Kickers at home. Sanders has only had two double-digit performances this season as Miami’s offense is way down from where they were a year ago, but this is a good matchup for him to try and get his third.
K Sit: Greg Zuerlein at Kansas City
Kansas City is allowing the lowest total points to Kickers at home. Surprising? Not really. They’ve allowed 18 passing touchdowns total on the year, as well as 10 rushing touchdowns. But, they’ve only had 11 made Field Goals against. That means the opposing offenses are much more likely to punch it into the endzone leaving their Kickers with just the extra points. If Zuerlein is still unable to play come Sunday, then this would apply to whoever his replacement is.
Defense Record: 10-10
Defense Start: Tennessee Titans vs Houston
Prior to last week they had three straight double-digit fantasy explosions. This is a great opportunity to earn another one against the team allowing the most fantasy points to defenses on the road.
Defense Sit: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia
I know I picked the Saints to win because of their defense, but outside of a few big performances they’ve mostly been a dud in fantasy land. On top of that, Philly is allowing the 5th least points to opposing defenses at home. I think their defense will get key stops that takes pressure off the offense and earns them the win, but I don’t think they’ll have a big fantasy impact that helps you win.
