Lance's 2021 Week 12 Predictions
Last Week: 7-8
Overall Record: 95-69-1
Chicago over Detroit
Nagy can’t afford to lose to the Lions, so I think he’ll play it safe on offense by using Montgomery to take advantage of Detroit’s porous run defense, while relying on his defense to wreak havoc.
Dallas over Las Vegas
Dallas struggled last week, but they’re still lightyears better than the way the Raiders have been playing, even without Cooper and Lamb.
Buffalo over New Orleans
Buffalo’s defense gets back on track and tortures Siemian all game long, or at least until the Saints decide to pull him and put in Hill, but by then the game will be out of hand.
Indianapolis over Tampa Bay
This was difficult, and I was going to go with the Bucs just cause, but Indy is playing too good of football right now. The Bucs strength was their rush defense, but that’s been struggling. Besides, good run defense or bad run defense, it hasn’t made a difference to Taylor lately.
Houston over NY Jets
The Jets defense has not travelled this year. Take for instance their pass rush, they have 15 sacks at home this year, only five on the road. It’s hard to keep Tyrod Taylor in check if you can’t get after him behind the line of scrimmage, just ask Tennessee.
Philadelphia over NY Giants
I don’t think firing Jason Garrett is going to spark anything because I think Daniel Jones’ inconsistency is why the offense has struggled. If Kitchens feels like he has to come out and prove something there’s a decent chance Jones ends up throwing the ball way too much and Philly’s defense has a field day.
Miami over Carolina
Taking Miami for the opposite reason of why I’m not taking the Jets; their defense plays very well at home. That, and Tagovailoa has played solid football since being put in about halfway through the Ravens game. Basically, in about a game and a half he’s thrown for 431 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick, a 76.1 completion rate. And his completion rate hasn’t come on dink and dunk passes either, he’s averaged 9.4 YPA in that span, plus his QBR has been above 100.
New England over Tennessee
Without Derrick Henry the Titans have been one dimensional and that one dimension is something the Patriots have locked down pretty well over this five game win streak (none of the opposing QBs have thrown more than 230 yards, and all but one of them threw at least 2 picks).
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
The Bengals have the ability to be more explosive and Pitt’s defense is allowing that to happen. It could turn into another shootout for the Steelers, but I don’t think Cincy’s defense will let it get to that point.
Jacksonville over Atlanta
Picking this game is all about trying to figure out which team will actually show up, because both of these teams have looked like disasters over the last two weeks. Atlanta has looked far worse though and the Jags are at home.
Denver over LA Chargers
Call it a gut feeling, I think Denver runs through the Chargers, literally, the Williams/Gordon tandem carries them through LAC and to victory.
LA Rams over Green Bay
The Rams still have one of the better pass defenses in the league, they’ve allowed the second least passing touchdowns and are top ten in interceptions. If you want to beat them you’ve gotta be willing to to run the ball and the Packers just haven’t shown that kind of commitment to their ground game.
Minnesota over San Francisco
I’m gonna make two predictions about this game based on how the Vikings have played almost all season long: One, it’s going to be high scoring, and two, it’s going to come down to the end of the game. As much as they’ve been trying to kill me, I still love them, and I think their affinity for the big play will allow them to outduel the Niners.
Baltimore over Cleveland
Cleveland’s hit a wall and they’ve gotta figure out how to get over it before they can be relied on for wins again. They’ve also struggled defensively on the road this season and Lamar Jackson is supposed to be back on Sunday.
Seattle over Washington
I know the Football Team has won two in a row, but I think this is Wilson’s “get right” game and I wouldn’t be surprised if the end result is a blowout.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 11-11
QB Start: Russell Wilson at Washington
The Football team has allowed 7 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced to score 20+ fantasy points on them, so even though Wilson has done next to nothing since returning from injury he’s still worth a start this week.
QB Sit: Justin Herbert at Denver
The Broncos have allowed two QBs to score 20+ points on them. Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts all got close, but they weren’t able to get over that hump either. You might be thinking, “Ok, but it’s Herbert.” Herbert hasn’t been immune to bad games. As a matter of fact, he’s scored under 17 points in half his games.
RB Record: 14-8
RB Start: David Montgomery at Detroit
You know what an absolute dagger losing to the Lions would be for Nagy? With Fields out, look for the Bears to go run heavy against the Lions weak rush defense and rely on their own defense to pull this game out for them.
RB Sit: Mark Ingram or Tony Jones vs Buffalo
Kamara is likely out, but don’t expect Ingram or Jones to pull a Jonathan Taylor and dominate the Bills. Taylor and Derrick Henry are the only RBs to have multi-touchdown games against the Bills, and two of just four RBs to score 10+ on the Bills in the fantasy. Ingram and Jones are not Taylor or Henry. If Ingram misses this game too, then the sit becomes Toney Jones.
WR Record: 12-10
WR Start: Rashod Bateman vs Cleveland
Jackson should be back and Cleveland is allowing the third most fantasy points to Receivers on the road. Even if Marquise Brown is healthy you should start Bateman. He’s been seeing plenty of targets and this is too good of a matchup not to try and take advantage.
WR Sit: Darnell Mooney at Detroit
Other reasons for benching Mooney outside of what I predicted with David Montgomery include: Detroit allowing the second least fantasy points to Receivers at home, he’s a little banged up, and last but not least, Andy Dalton will be starting and he doesn’t exactly have the arm to take advantage of Mooney’s speed.
TE Record: 15-7
TE Start: Dalton Schultz vs Las Vegas
I feel like I’ve done Schultz pretty recently and it didn’t go so well, but hear me out. Vegas allows the most points to this position on the road, and Dallas is hurting for pass catching options. Cooper is out again due to Covid and there’s a chance Lamb won’t clear concussion protocol by game time, so fire up Schultz this week.
TE Sit: Tyler Conklin at San Francisco
Conklin had a down game against the Packers this past week and it’s not really surprising as Green Bay has done a good job against Tight Ends. San Fran does a better job against the position, but they don’t do very well against Receivers or Running Backs at home.
K Record: 10-12
K Start: Brandon McManus vs LA Chargers
I kind of covered it in my recap article when I listed McManus as my Kicker to target on waivers this week, but to add on a little, the Chargers allow the 8th most fantasy points to Kickers on the road.
K Sit: Randy Bullock at New England
He’s top 12 at the position this season, but his down games have been really bad. With the way the Pats defense has been playing I think this is going to be another one of those games.
Defense Record: 11-11
Defense Start: Miami Dolphins vs Carolina
I’m gonna spell it out for you: Miami plays better defense at home. For instance they allow less yards per attempt on the ground and through the air, and they get to the Quarterback more often. Newton had a nice week last week, but this is still the same guy we saw throw more picks (10) than touchdowns (8) last year. And this is definitely the same guy who has thrown double-digit interceptions in every season he’s started double-digit games in. I would’ve listed Chicago here, but I already have Montgomery and Mooney on here, figured one more would be too much.
Defense Sit: New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo
I know Indy’s defense finished top ten in fantasy last week, but don’t expect Buffalo to have those same kinds of struggles this week. They’ll make the corrections they need to so it doesn’t happen two weeks in a row, and besides, the Saints have scored 8 total fantasy points in the last three weeks against the likes of Atlanta, Tennessee and Philadelphia.
