Lance's 2021 Week 13 Predictions
Last Week: 7-8
Overall Record: 102-77-1
Dallas over New Orleans
The Saints are bad against the pass at home. I think they’ll put on a better showing with Hill starting, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep up with Dallas’ pass game.
Miami over NY Giants
Miami is hot right now. The defense is playing well, and the offense is playing smart, I think they get the job done.
Indianapolis over Houston
The Texans aren’t going to be able to stop Jonathan Taylor.
Minnesota over Detroit
Minnesota’s offense isn’t struggling like Detroit’s previous three opponents.
Philadelphia over NY Jets
Philly is at their best when they can run the ball and the Jets suck at stopping the run.
Kansas City over Denver
I was and still am tempted to take Denver. I’m giving KC the edge since they’re at home, but if Denver can get the run going early they may sneak away with this one.
Arizona over Chicago
I think the Cards take this one with or without Kyler Murray. Chicago just doesn’t have the talent to hang with them.
Cincinnati over LA Chargers
Joe Mixon’s one of the best backs in the league right now and the Chargers couldn’t stop the run if I was the one carrying the ball, well I’m broken and fat, so that’s a major exaggeration, but you get the point.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Atlanta has some nice pieces, but overall they are a mess. Tampa gets a nice easy win as long as they don’t overlook their divisional rival.
Las Vegas over Washington
Washington still has trouble against the pass and Derek Carr clearly doesn’t have a problem throwing the ball.
LA Rams over Jacksonville
Only way the Jags are getting this one is if the Rams overlook them like the Bills did, and I don’t think they will after that beating they took last week.
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
The Ravens just find a way to win. The holes Pitt has on both sides of the ball makes it hard for me to trust they can stop Jackson or keep up if it gets out of hand.
San Francisco over Seattle
Elijah Mitchell carries San Fran to a win for the second week in a row.
New England over Buffalo
The Patriots look like an unstoppable force right now and the Bills have shown weakness. Belichick will exploit that weakness.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 12-12
QB Start: Tua Tagovailoa vs NY Giants
Tua has been efficient since his return, and this is his most QB friendly matchup compared to their two most recent opponents with the Giants allowing the 7th most points to opposing QBs on the road. The Jets are allowing just the 19th most at home, and the Panthers allow the 29th most on the road.
QB Sit: Josh Allen vs New England
I know, I know, benching a player of Josh Allen’s caliber is an insane suggestion to make, but he’s not invincible. Allen still struggles with turnovers and bad play, not on the same level he did in his first two seasons, but the struggles are still there. The Pats allow the least amount of points to QBs when playing on the road.
RB Record: 15-9
RB Start: Elijah Mitchell vs Seattle
Mitchell had a good outing last week and he could be in store for an even better one this week as Seattle is allowing the second most points to RBs on the road.
RB Sit: Saquon Barkley at Miami
I’ve mentioned it a couple times in recent weeks: Miami plays better defensive football at home. In that respect, they allow the fifth least points to opposing RBs at home. Barkley hasn’t exactly been a world beater since he returned from injury. This is a good week to sit him.
WR Record: 12-12
WR Start: Michael Gallup at New Orleans
Don’t expect Gallup to just disappear into the background because Lamb and Cooper are back. Gallup might just be the most talented third Receiver on any team in the league right now, and the Saints allow the most points to opposing Receivers at home. Add in the idea that Lattimore will likely spend most of the game covering the other two, and you can see where Gallup is a solid option in week 13.
WR Sit: Tee Higgins vs LA Chargers
The Chargers allow the second least amount of points to opposing Receivers on the road. Really, the only time this season they’ve allowed two fantasy starter outputs by Receivers on the same team was when they were at home against Pitt. If I were to guess which Cincy Receiver might workout in your starting lineup this week I’d pick Chase. Better not to bet on Higgins in this one.
TE Record: 17-7
TE Start: Jack Doyle vs Houston
17 targets in the last three weeks suggests he should continue to get a decent amount of looks this week. A matchup against Houston’s slack Tight End coverage suggests an opportunity to dominate.
TE Sit: Zach Ertz at Chicago
Arizona is coming off their bye and of course there’s the potential bonus of Kyler Murray returning, but Chicago is allowing the second least amount of points to Tight Ends at home. Plus, the Bears allow a good amount of points to Receivers and DeAndre Hopkins may also be back.
K Record: 11-13
K Start: Greg Joseph at Detroit
I’m hopping back on the attack Detroit bandwagon again this week. Joseph has been a solid option for most of the year. And even though Detroit has held their last three opponents to 16 or less points, those opponents were the Steelers, Browns and Bears. The Vikings are still scoring points and moving the ball well, so that shouldn’t be a problem for them.
K Sit: Harrison Butker vs Denver
It’s the combination of how well Denver’s defense is playing and how poorly the Chiefs offense has been performing. I took KC to win above, but I have a feeling it’s going to be lower scoring, so less opportunities for Butker.
Defense Record: 13-11
Defense Start: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta
The first time the Bucs took on Atlanta I said start Matt Ryan cause the Bucs secondary is playing bad football. It wasn’t a terrible suggestion, but the Bucs defense tortured the entire Atlanta team and scored the third highest defensive point total in that week. Even though they’re in Atlanta this time around, the results should be similar.
Defense Sit: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill is expected to start under Center for the Saints this week. Dallas has been doing well against the pass (minus that blunder last week), they’ve been slightly more lax against the run. With Hill in the lineup you can expect plenty of runs, a decent amount of points and a lower chance of turnovers.
