Lance's 2021 Week 15 Predictions
Last Week: 10-4
Overall Record: 121-86-1
LA Chargers over Kansas City
During KC's six game win streak they’ve beaten the Raiders twice, the Giants, Denver and a Rodger-less Packers team. They also beat Dallas, which is probably the only offense that you would have expected to give them a fight out of that group. The Chargers are better off than those other teams, including Dallas who has shown signs of weakness recently.
Las Vegas over Cleveland
It’s looking like Cleveland’s going to have to run with their practice squad, unless a whole bunch of players can test negative twice before Saturday. The Raiders should be able to pull this one off easily enough, barring all of Cleveland’s backups catching them by surprise.
New England over Indianapolis
Belichick does a great job of picking one player on the offense, shutting them down and forcing the rest of the team to beat him. If he’s able to successfully shut down Jonathan Taylor I don’t see Wentz and company being able to adapt and overcome.
Dallas over NY Giants
In my fantasy starts and sits section you’re going to see some stats that favor the Giants, but they aren’t there to suggest an upset in this game. Dallas has the better team as a whole and their defense has the ability to carry them in a matchup with this bad Giants offense.
Jacksonville over Houston
Here we are with another game involving the “interim coach effect.” I believe it was the Raiders earlier in the season when I brought this up as a reason to pick them. It’s not my only reason for taking the Jags though, I also think they have more weapons on both sides of the ball and can handle their business, especially if Darrell Bevell gets Robinson going early on.
Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Tennessee’s defense tends to struggle on the road, and their offense is a hot mess right now. Pitt takes advantage of both issues.
Miami over NY Jets
It’s Miami at home against the rudderless Jets that struggled even more this past week with no Elijah Moore.
Washington over Philadelphia
I think Washington uses their recent defensive success to make Jalen Hurts miserable. Will we hear chants for the mustachioed backup?
Arizona over Detroit
Even without D-Hop Arizona is lightyears beyond Detroit.
Buffalo over Carolina
Buffalo may play badly against good teams, but they dominate bad ones (with the exception of Jacksonville) and that’s the category Carolina falls into.
Cincinnati over Denver
Denver’s offensive key, their run game, is Cincinnati’s defensive strength on the road. I think Burrow, Chase and Higgins do what they do best and keep the game out of reach.
San Francisco over Atlanta
Atlanta is a better than some, worse than most, team. You see that in their schedule too, they beat teams like Carolina, New Orleans and Jacksonville, and get blown out by teams like New England, Dallas and Tampa Bay. San Francisco is one of those teams they are worse than.
LA Rams over Seattle
These two have a recent history of splitting their season series 1-1. They’ve done it in four out of the last five years, and since the Rams one the earlier meeting I was tempted to take Seattle. But the gap in talent and performance is bigger than we’ve seen it in quite a while in this rivalry.
Green Bay over Baltimore
Baltimore’s suffered way too many injuries to keep up with a team like Green Bay.
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Fun stat of the week: Tampa hasn’t beaten New Orleans since Brady took over as QB. I see that stat ending this week thanks to Taysom Hill’s recent demonstration that he not a consistent passer.
Chicago over Minnesota
In reality, Minnesota should be able to steamroll Chicago by continuing their offensive explosion and getting some pressure (something they’ve done well this year) on Chicago’s young passer. However, from all my years watching the Vikings, I’ve found they always seem to struggle in Chicago, and given their late game collapses this year, well I think you see where I’m going.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 14-14
QB Start: Tua Tagovailoa vs NY Jets
If you exclude the Baltimore game where he got in over halfway through, Tua has averaged 38.5 attempts over his last 6 games. The Jets have been one of the easier road defenses on QBs in fantasy. The volume plus the matchup makes Tua a solid starting option this week.
QB Sit: Dak Prescott at NY Giants
Here’s a couple fun facts for you: In their last seven games the Giants are 3-4, all 3 wins were at home, all 4 losses were on the road. In those three wins they held their opponents to 16 or less points, and on the season they’re allowing just 5.7 YPA at home. Prescott’s on a bit of a cold streak, so if you can avoid starting him this week I’d suggest you do so.
RB Record: 18-10
RB Start: James Robinson vs Houston
Robinson has had a rough couple weeks, but Urban Meyer is out and this is a golden matchup that the interim coach can use Robinson to exploit.
RB Sit: Leonard Fournette vs New Orleans
The Saints are still a risk to fantasy Running Backs despite their struggles in other areas. Keep in mind, Fournette’s first time around against New Orleans resulted in a measly 5.8 points.
WR Record: 14-14
WR Start: Christian Kirk at Detroit
DeAndre Hopkins is done for the year, so Kirk, Green and Moore should all see an uptick. I’m picking Kirk as my start against the lowly Lions secondary this week because he’s seen 5+ targets in every game since week five except one.
WR Sit: D.J. Moore at Buffalo
Should go without saying, but I’m gonna mention it anyway. Moore has been a top 25 Receiver this year, mostly because of his yards and receptions production. Buffalo has allowed one Receiver to make 10 or more catches against them and to go for 100+ yards on them. Now is not the time to get cute.
TE Record: 19-9
TE Start: Ricky Seals-Jones at Philadelphia
He didn’t do much last week, but he was able to take advantage of good matchups earlier in the year when Logan Thomas was out, and this is a great matchup.
TE Sit: Tyler Conklin at Chicago
The Bears have been very hard on Tight Ends at home and not so much on Receivers. Don’t be surprised if Conklin fades into the background this week, especially if Thielen is healthy.
K Record: 12-16
K Start: Jason Sanders vs NY Jets
Like I said in my waiver wire targets article, this is a great matchup for him.
K Sit: Michael Badgley vs New England
The Pats are allowing the least amount of points per game in the league.
Defense Record: 16-12
Defense Start: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee
Pitt has not been anywhere near the fantasy powerhouse they were last year, but this is one of those instances where the matchup aligns just right. The Titans offense is struggling lately, so there’s a good chance Pitt can limit the amount of points they score this week. Plus, the Titans allow the second most sacks per game on the road, and the Steelers have the highest sacks per game average at home.
Defense Sit: Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati
Denver’s defense is having a good fantasy season, good enough to be top ten in points, but this is a tough matchup. Cincinnati has allowed three opponents to have monster fantasy games against them, but they’ve also kept eight opposing defenses to five or less fantasy points. I don’t like those odds.
