Lance's 2021 Week 16 Predictions

Last Week: 9-7

Overall Record: 130-93-1

Tennessee over San Francisco

I made a post on Facebook for this pick because this article wasn’t ready to be posted.

Green Bay over Cleveland

The Browns probably have more of a chance than I’m assuming most people are giving them, especially if they can get their run game going, but Green Bay’s exploited weakness as of late has been their struggles against running QBs. Mayfield is decently athletic, but he doesn’t have the same ability Tyler Huntley and Justin Fields possess, so for that reason I think the Packers take care of business.

Indianapolis over Arizona

Taylor is playing at too high a level for Arizona’s subpar run defense to keep him in check. Indy controls the clock, their defense gets some necessary stops and the Colts come away with their ninth win in their last ten games.

Philadelphia over NY Giants

Same reason I gave for Jake Elliott being my waiver target at Kicker this week, the Giants defense doesn’t travel well.

LA Rams over Minnesota

The Vikings have a rough two weeks ahead that they need to win (the Rams this week and Packers next week). Unfortunately, this week they’ll need to beat one of the hotter teams in the league and do it without Dalvin Cook. I’m not liking those odds.

New England over Buffalo

Buffalo’s run defense hasn’t suddenly improved since they played New England two weeks ago. The Pats will have to throw more than three times in this one, but I think the end result will remain the same.

Tampa Bay over Carolina

Unfortunate for the Panthers that they have to play a ticked off Brady.

Jacksonville over NY Jets

I went back and forth between these two, but I ended up going with the Jags because of the Jets’ weakness against the run.

Atlanta over Detroit

Like I said last week, for the most part Atlanta has played good against the bad teams and bad against the good teams. Detroit’s showing life and they’ve been pretty entertaining to watch, but they’re still a “bad” team.

LA Chargers over Houston

I would be shocked if this doesn’t end up in an absolute blowout.

Cincinnati over Baltimore

I was on the fence earlier in the week and then Baltimore’s defensive coordinator gave Cincy bulletin board material and now I’m taking Burrow and Chase in a runaway.

Seattle over Chicago

I think this one will come down to who can throw the ball better, so yes, my money is on Russell Wilson.

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Pitt was able to beat Tennessee because Tennessee’s offense is struggling. That’s no longer the case for the Chiefs, so whatever the spread is, take the Chiefs.

Las Vegas over Denver

With Drew Lock starting I am absolutely picking the Raiders.

Dallas over Washington

Washington gave Dallas a scare a couple weeks ago, but they’re a little more banged up now. If Gibson plays they could potentially give the Cowboys another run, but if he doesn’t I don’t think it’ll even be close.

Miami over New Orleans

The Saints are starting Ian Book at Quarterback. They’re also surprisingly worse defensively when playing at home.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 16-14

QB Start: Joe Burrow vs Baltimore

The Ravens have had their struggles against the pass and at keeping guys in their secondary healthy. I could see this being another blow up spot for Burrow.

QB Sit: Kirk Cousins vs LA Rams

In case you saw the matchup and thought, “nah, I’ll still go for it cause Cousins is having a career year,” I’m going to kindly suggest you rethink that. Don’t get me wrong, Cousins is having a very good year, but he’s only scored 20+ fantasy points in one of his last four games, after doing so in 6 of his first 10.

RB Record: 19-11

RB Start: Justin Jackson at Houston

Houston is a great matchup for Running Backs, so even if Ekeler clears the COVID protocols prior to their game, Jackson is still worth starting. This game could get out of hand early on allowing the Chargers to run the ball a ton, and if that ends up being the case Jackson would see a decent number of carries to avoid causing an unnecessary injury to Ekeler before the playoffs.

RB Sit: Rashaad Penny vs Chicago

Fair warning to anyone who picked up Penny and is thinking about starting him this week cause “last week he was playing the Rams, that’s why he didn’t have another big game.” Penny hasn’t shown much in his entire NFL career since being picked in the first round, so no it wasn’t just because the Rams, also, the Bears run defense on the road allows 3.8 YPC.

WR Record: 15-15

WR Start: Jaylen Waddles at New Orleans

He’s healthy, playing a poor home pass defense and he averaged 10 targets a game in the three games before their week 14 bye week.

WR Sit: Jerry Jeudy at Las Vegas

It’s not a great matchup as is, and it’s made worse by Lock starting. Add in the fact that he’s tallied just 19 targets in the four games since Denver’s bye week and you can see why he’s a sit.

TE Record: 20-10

TE Start: Zach Ertz vs Indianapolis

In the first Hopkins-less game for Arizona Ertz saw 11 targets. Also, Indy isn’t very good against Tight Ends.

TE Sit: Mike Gesicki at New Orleans

With Parker and Waddle healthy Gesicki is looking at a decrease in targets and the Saints are solid against Tight Ends regardless of where they’re playing.

K Record: 12-18

K Start: Jason Myers vs Chicago

Myers has arguably suffered the most from Seattle’s offensive deficiencies. He’s only had one double digit fantasy game all season. I’m calling it, this will be his second. The Bears are allowing the 8th most points to the position.

K Sit: Tyler Bass at New England

I think things will go slightly better than the four points he managed against the Pats the first time around, but not that much better. Badgley scored 10 points on New England last week, which was the first time a Kicker scored 10+ on the Pats since week 6. I don’t believe Bass will be able to provide a sequel to that.

Defense Record: 18-12

Defense Start: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver

I list Vegas as my waiver target for defense this week and I’m sticking with them as my start for the same reason, Drew Lock.

Defense Sit: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas

On the opposite side of the field I’m gonna recommend sitting Denver’s defense. If their offense struggles it’s going to put the defense in plenty of poor situations and that doesn’t bode well for your fantasy endeavors.