Lance's 2021 Week 17 Predictions
Last Week: 12-4
Overall Record: 142-97-1
Philadelphia over Washington
I believe the Eagles will keep their playoff hopes alive as Washington’s recent offensive struggles continue (they’ve scored 17 or less in four out of their last five games).
LA Rams over Baltimore
I don’t think this will be as bad as what the Ravens just endured against the Bengals, but then again it could be. Either way, I think Baltimore has too many problems in their secondary to hang with Stafford and company.
Tampa Bay over NY Jets
Wilson and Carter have provided a little bit of hope and excitement for the Jets recently. 20+ points on the Bucs isn’t out of the question, but they’ll need 35+ if they want a chance to win and I don’t see that happening.
Tennessee over Miami
This pick is sort of the tale of the defenses. Both teams play better defense at home and it just so happens the Titans are the home team in this one, I think we see Miami’s win streak come to an end and we witness Brian Flores come just short of making the playoffs for the second year in a row.
New England over Jacksonville
Belichick won’t allow his guys to get caught up looking ahead, so I don’t see a way in which Jacksonville sneaks away with a win.
Indianapolis over Las Vegas
No Wentz would make this interesting, but I’d still take Jonathan Taylor and Indy’s defense, I’d just expect the score to be a little closer.
Kansas City over Cincinnati
I’ll be hoping I’m wrong in this one, but I’m taking K.C. because they’ve been more consistent in recent weeks.
Chicago over NY Giants
The Giants are in complete disarray, I’d be shocked if they found some sort of spark to beat anyone at this point.
Buffalo over Atlanta
The Bills play good against bad teams and the Falcons play bad against good teams, it lines up.
San Francisco over Houston
I doubt the Niners will overlook Houston after what they just did to the Chargers.
LA Chargers over Denver
Denver could definitely win this game by doing exactly what Houston did last week, which is pretty close to what they did in their win over LAC back in week 12, I just can’t trust Denver if Lock is under Center.
New Orleans over Carolina
I’ve seen what Carolina has been putting out and it ain’t pretty. With Hill back under Center the Saints should be able to keep themselves alive in the NFC playoff race.
Detroit over Seattle
Kind of an upset pick? Seattle just feels like one of those teams the hard fighting Lions could beat, so I’m going with my gut.
Arizona over Dallas
Dallas’ fantastic football in recent weeks has come against Washington twice, the Giants and the Saints. Arizona has been playing poorly, but they are desperate for a win and Dallas just seems in perfect position to get their heads taken off by a better than average team before the end of the season.
Green Bay over Minnesota
Back when I made my pick in week 11 I said I believed these two were going to split the series and I (correctly) chose Minnesota to win that one. I’m sticking by those words. Green Bay steals this one at home in another heartbreaking late fourth quarter loss for the Vikings.
Cleveland over Pittsburgh
Cleveland’s been playing to the level of their opponents recently, which seems to favor the Steelers. But there was just something about Pitt’s offense this past week that makes me believe they’re running on fumes. Browns win a low scoring game because Mayfield and Chubb are able to do just a little more than Big Ben and Harris.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 17-15
QB Start: Jalen Hurts at Washington
There’s a decent chance that you drafted Hurts as your QB2 and you’ve had a tough time choosing between starting him and the guy you drafted as your QB1 all season long. Let me make it a little easier for you this week: unless your QB1 is Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford, Hurts should be in your starting lineup.
QB Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo vs Houston
He’s been solid, but not dominant and you may need a performance that’ll net you more than 17 points by your QB this week. Even though he’s facing Houston, I wouldn’t count on Jimmy G being the one to get you there.
RB Record: 20-12
RB Start: Javonte Williams at LA Chargers
I don’t know why he’s getting basically no love from the people and/or machines who do the fantasy points projections, but they’re wrong. With Lock under Center the offense did flop against the Raiders, but the Chargers CAN’T STOP THE RUN. Williams had 18.60 fantasy points on them back in week 12, they just allowed Burkhead to run all over them, don’t be afraid to start Williams, or Gordon for that matter.
RB Sit: Chuba Hubbard at New Orleans
With the news that Matt Rhule is planning on starting Darnold on Sunday, Hubbard’s prospects look better than what he dealt with last week, but they’re still not great. New Orleans is a tough run defense and Carolina's offense is a mess.
WR Record: 17-15
WR Start: Van Jefferson Jr. at Baltimore
Did you see what Burrow did to the Ravens last week? That could very well be the Rams offense this week, so Kupp and OBJ should definitely be in your starting lineups, but I’d add Jefferson to that mix as well. He had only 5 targets total in weeks 14 and 15, so I was uneasy about using him until he saw 6 targets last week. He didn’t do much with those targets, but if he can pull in that many looks again against the Ravens’ injury riddled secondary I’d expect him to have a much bigger game.
WR Sit: Terry McLaurin vs Philadelphia
If you haven’t already cast him to your bench, then you should definitely consider doing so this week. Washington’s pass game has been virtually non-existent in recent weeks and it’s very clearly destroyed McLaurin’s fantasy output. Plus, Philly is not an easy matchup for Receivers.
TE Record: 22-10
TE Start: Gerald Everett vs Detroit
Everett has posted 8 or more fantasy points in each week since his ugly week 13 outing. He’s also slowly seen his target total increase in each of those three weeks. Detroit is a fantastic matchup for him to put together another nice performance.
TE Sit: Dalton Schultz vs Arizona
I know, I know, this is the wrong week to tell you to sit Schultz cause you’ve basically ridden his back to back monster performances to your fantasy championship, but I just don’t see him doing it again this week. Arizona has allowed two touchdowns to Tight Ends all year, and only one Tight End has posted 50+ yards on them (Kittle had 101). With this being a tough matchup for him and with how many options Dallas has in the passing game Schultz could easily get overlooked.
K Record: 13-19
K Start: Mason Crosby vs Minnesota
I’m sticking with the player I listed as my waiver target. It’s a great matchup for him and could be for you too.
K Sit: Daniel Carlson at Indianapolis
He did have that nice stretch where he scored 11+ fantasy points in three out of four weeks, but Indy’s a different beast. They’ve allowed one Kicker to score double digits fantasy points on them all season, and in their last six weeks they’ve allowed just one team (Tampa Bay) to score more than 17 points on them.
Defense Record: 19-13
Defense Start: Chicago Bears vs NY Giants
Like Crosby, I’m sticking with my waiver wire defensive target for my start. I love the matchup, and I believe Chicago still has the playmakers on defense to take advantage of an inconsistent Mike Glennon, or a young, unspectacular Jake Fromm.
Defense Sit: Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota
For the most part, the defenses you’ve been starting should be in your lineup this week. But if you were counting on Green Bay, I wouldn’t. Minnesota’s offense did just have their worst outing, allowing the Rams to score 11 fantasy points, but no other team has hit double digits on them this year and only four other teams have scored more than five fantasy points on them. Oh, and Green Bay wasn’t one of them, they managed just 1 fantasy point against Minnesota back in week 11.
