Lance's 2021 Week 2 Predictions
Week 1 did not go as planned for me, but I’m not all that surprised because the first week of the season tends to be a little unpredictable, so let’s see if I can rebound.
Overall Record: 6-10
Washington over NY Giants
A buddy of mine is a big Giants fan and he provided me with the stat of the day, Daniel Jones has not lost to Washington. I had to look it up for myself of course, and he’s correct, Jones is 4-0 in this rivalry. But, I’m sorry to say Fred, I’m still taking Washington. I think they control the clock with Gibson against what was a non-existent Giants run defense last week, and they use their own stacked defense to keep Jones and company in check.
Pittsburgh over Las Vegas
I went back and forth on this one. I ended up choosing Pitt because of their defense. Carr just went off for over 400 yards on Baltimore, but the Ravens are also dealing with injuries (Marcus Peters) and new faces up front. On the other hand, Pitt’s defense didn’t skip a beat, shutting down Josh Allen the same way they locked down basically everyone through the first three quarters of last season.
Philadelphia over San Francisco
Philly’s defense looked very good and I think Jimmy G and the rest of the Niners offense are going to have their hands full. Meanwhile, Hurts, who also had a great week 1, gets to tee off on San Fran’s thin secondary. This one may end up being a surprising blowout.
Cleveland over Houston
There’s two things working against the Texans this week. First, Cleveland is one of the more well rounded teams in the AFC, Jacksonville definitely is not, so this won’t be a walk in the park for Houston. Second, Houston won’t have the benefit of surprise. Week 1 is when the real game tape starts flowing. Houston went into week 1 with a new coaching staff, new schemes and a new QB (for them) under Center. Cleveland now has that tape and can properly gameplan for them.
Denver over Jacksonville
Lawrence will have to basically be perfect if the Jags want to win this one. Denver’s got the talent defensively to force turnovers and their offense isn’t likely to return the favor.
New Orleans over Carolina
I think the Saints will run into a little more resistance from the Panthers than they did the Packers, but I still see this one going in their favor. Carolina jumped out early against the Jets, but failed to capitalize in the second half and almost lost. There’s a lot to like about their team, but New Orleans is a more formidable opponent than the Jets.
LA Rams over Indianapolis
The strengths and weaknesses favor the Rams. Defensively they’re great against the pass and a little weak against the run. That works for Jonathan Taylor, but it’s going to cause problems for Wentz. Indy plays well against the run, but looked terrible in pass coverage in week 1. Stafford didn’t need very many attempts to bury Chicago and he shouldn’t need many to do the same to the Colts.
Buffalo over Miami
This will come down to which Quarterback plays more disciplined. Josh Allen was all over the place last week, but I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt and say it was Pittsburgh’s doing. Tua looked decent against the Pats, but he did throw a pick and his completion rate wasn’t anything to write home about. Allen and the Bills get the nod from me.
New England over NY Jets
If Wilson plays half as badly against the Pats as he did against the Panthers he will single handedly lose the game for his team. The Patriots will be in his head and they will capitalize on turnovers.
Cincinnati over Chicago
Revenge game for Andy Dalton, or Justin Fields’ first significant playing time? As far as I’ve seen, Chicago is sticking with Dalton, but if he struggles and the Bears fall behind again I could see a change being made. I don’t think Dalton will take advantage of his old team. I do think Burrow will be the exact same machine against Chicago that he was against the Vikings. Stafford had 321 yards on 26 attempts against the Bears; Cincy can follow that exact same blueprint.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
As you’ll see below in my starts and sits, Matt Ryan has been solid against the Bucs since Todd Bowles took over as DC, so if the offense struggles again this week, then Arthur Smith needs to reevaluate things. Having said that, Tampa will win this game. Watch their week one performances, the differences in these two teams is night and day. Make sure you have Brady, Godwin, Evans, Brown and Gronk all in your starting lineups.
Arizona over Minnesota
I love my team, but after what I saw last week I’d say they have a better chance of travelling back in time to meet their namesake than they do of stopping Kyler Murray. The other issue is how they’re going to slow down Chandler Jones. They had so many false start and holding penalties against the Bengals, that it makes me wonder if they’re going to jump every time Jones wiggles his fingers.
Seattle over Tennessee
The Titans just struggled against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds, there is no reason to believe they can stop Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett and Carson. For the sake of every fantasy football coach that drafted a Titan, let’s just hope Tennessee’s offense can get something going this week.
Dallas over LA Chargers
I believe this is going to be a very high scoring game, and for that reason I’m taking Dallas. Though the Chargers do have firepower on offense, I think the Cowboys are better equipped to score at will in a game like this.
Kansas City over Baltimore
I considered choosing Baltimore because I think they’ll play with a lot more fire in front of their home crowd, but it’s hard to trust them against Mahomes after they just gave up 400+ yards to Derek Carr.
Green Bay over Detroit
Rodgers, Adams and Jones have to be heated after what they did last week. Unfortunately for the Lions, they’re the next team up.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 0-2
QB Start: Matt Ryan at Tampa Bay
The whole Falcons offense looked terrible last week, but this actually offers up a nice bounce back chance for Ryan and his pass catchers. They’re going to have to throw the ball to keep up with the Bucs, and Tampa struggled in coverage against Dallas. In the four games Ryan has started while Bowles has been the DC for Tampa he has averaged 301 yards passing and tossed 6 touchdowns to 1 interception.
QB Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo at Philadelphia
I loved Philly’s performance all the way around in week 1. A lot of the focus has been on how bad Atlanta’s offense was, but I look at it as how good Philly’s defense played. They finally played like the unit we expected to see for the last few years. Garoppolo is coming off a 300 yard performance, but he lost a touchdown to Trey Lance, which could become an annoying norm, and he was playing Detroit, this won’t be an easy outing.
RB Record: 1-1
RB Start: Chase Edmonds vs Minnesota
With one week down we have the benefit of looking at how teams did in week 1 compared to how they did last season. The Vikings, who were on the road this past week, allowed the Bengals backfield to tally almost 38 fantasy points. The Vikings were also bad against Running Backs while on the road last year. Enter Edmonds who did a lot more with his touches last week than James Conner.
RB Sit: Mark Ingram at Cleveland
First of all, if he gets 26 carries in this game I’ll be surprised. Houston was able to run him like crazy because they had the lead, I doubt that will be the case against Cleveland. Second of all, Ingram managed just 3.3 YPC and zero targets in the passing game. The Browns held Clyde Edwards-Healire to 3.1 YPC on 14 carries.
WR Record: 2-0
WR Start: Mike Williams vs Dallas
In my waiver priorities article I mentioned it’s important to look at targets for Receivers and Tight Ends. Well, Williams tallied 12 targets as well as a solid stat line (8 catches, 82 yards and a score). He and Keenan Allen (13 targets) were clearly Herbert’s go to guys and as long as they’re both healthy that’s not likely to change. It also helps that Dallas’ defense picked up where it left off, towards the bottom of the league.
WR Sit: Courtland Sutton at Jacksonville
This might seem out there, but if you look at what Jacksonville did last year it makes sense. Jacksonville was awful against Receivers on the road last season, but surprisingly they did a good job of shutting Receivers down at home. Not to mention, Sutton’s first game back from injury resulted in 1 catch for 14 yards, so even with Jeudy out he’s hard to trust right now (that should change as the season progresses).
TE Record: 2-0
TE Start: Logan Thomas vs NY Giants
In case you were considering benching Thomas due to Fitzpatrick’s injury, don’t. The Giants allowed the Broncos Tight Ends to collectively score over 17 fantasy points on them in week one and last year they were awful against the position on the road. Thomas doesn’t have any Tight Ends he competes against for targets, and I suspect Heinicke will be looking to his big outlet often.
TE Sit: Hunter Henry at NY Jets
Henry saw just 3 targets last week which was tied with Kendrick Bourne and well behind Jakobi Meyers (9), Nelson Agholor (7) and fellow Tight End Jonnu Smith (5). If the targets aren’t there then his fantasy potential takes a significant hit. Even in a potentially great matchup against the Jets, I’d recommend sitting him.
K Record: 0-2
K Start: Brandon McManus at Jacksonville
There is no reason Denver should not put up big points on a Jags defense that just gave up 37 to Houston. McManus had a nice 9 point outing in week 1, he could easily hit double-digits this week.
K Sit: Rodrigo Blankenship vs LA Rams
It pains me to list Specs here, but he’s the one that makes the most sense. The Rams were tough on Kickers last year and they only allowed two points to Santos last week.
Defense Record: 2-0
Defense Start: New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints’ defense had a monster game against Green Bay, so why not two weeks in a row? Darnold has a history of turning the ball over in games that get out of hand and since the Saints do a stellar job at shutting down opposing Running Backs, a lot of the pressure will be on Darnold.
Defense Sit: Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas
Like I said above, I think this one is going to be a barnburner. If you have either of the QBs or any of the Receivers (meaning Cooper, Lamb, Allen or Williams, maybe even Cedrick Wilson) in this game, start them. But, as for the defenses, neither is a viable option this week.
