Lance's 2021 Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Waiver Priorities

Week 2 brought about a rollercoaster of emotions and ended in heartbreak watching my Vikings lose again at the very end of the game. Every single time we line up for a chance to win/tie the game on a Field Goal or Extra Point, my body goes into high anxiety mode. As a review for the week 2 results I’m going to do a “buying in or backing out” segment. I’m going to look at some of the bigger things happening right now and if I see it working out I’ll say I’m buying in, and if I think it’s a fluke I’ll say I’m folding.

-Taylor Heinicke taking Washington to the playoffs: Push. I know that wasn’t an option, but I need to see more from the entire NFC before I comment on this one. Not only that, I need to see more from this vaunted Washington defense. I think Heinicke has the stuff to get the job done, but Philly and Dallas look like better teams overall right now, so they’d be shooting for a wildcard. Are they better than the Panthers, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks or 49ers? Right now, I’d say no, if that defense steps up their game, I’d give them a chance.

-The Raiders starting 2-0: I’m backing out. They have had impressive wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but their division consists of the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. The AFC West is too difficult and I’m not buying that their defense is actually reformed.

-Derek Carr and his league leading 817 passing yards: I’m buying in. When he did it week one against a banged up Baltimore defense I was on the fence but watching him torch Pitt was enough for me to believe. We’ve seen Carr put up MVP level numbers before and it’s not like he’s fallen off the face of the Earth since that 2016 season (thrown for over 4,000 yards in three straight seasons).

-Hurts’ week 1 was a fluke: I’m backing out. He didn’t have a great game through the air in week 2, but he did get it done on the ground. Bonus for him is he’s got two games against the Giants and two against the Cowboys and neither defense has much going for it. Plus, he’s got two against Washington and that defense is currently struggling. That’s 40% of his remaining schedule.

-The Panthers...2-0, #1 Run Defense, #2 Pass Defense: Partially backing out. Do I think Carolina is good enough to topple Tampa and maintain their surprising defensive rankings? No. But with the way they are playing I think they’re good enough to be that surprise playoff team this season. As an added note, if this continues for the full season Joe Brady will be the #1 coaching candidate on every team’s wish list next offseason, and he should be.

-Zach Wilson being a flop: Backing out for now. Through two games Wilson currently sits at 468 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with an abysmal 55.7% completion rate and 56.1 passer rating. We cannot fully judge him off two games, especially when one of them came against the great rookie QB destroyer himself, Bill Belichick. I’ll be the first to tell you that at least one QB has flopped just about every time there has been a QB taken #1 and #2 overall in the draft. Wilson has looked worse than Lawrence (who hasn’t looked too hot himself), but he’s working with a patchwork O-Line and we all knew he was going to need a little extra time to adjust to the NFL coming out of BYU. Give it a little more time is all I’m saying.

-Kyler Murray MVP: Buying in for now. Murray is red hot, but he was also red hot to start out last year before getting a little banged up and finishing on some low notes. He’s proven that he’s more than talented enough to put up the stats necessary to walk away with an MVP award, but we need to see him do it for a full season.

-Arthur Smith is going to fail in Atlanta: Backing out. The jump we saw from week 1 to week 2 was what Atlanta needed to start building a little confidence. How Matt Ryan ended that game is going to hinder that growth a bit. But the important thing to remember is that this is a new scheme and it takes time for the players to adjust. The development over the full season is what matters most. Not to mention, I’d like to see Fontenot provide Smith with a more talented Running Back, and Dean Pees with some upgrades in the defensive backfield.

-Dallas is playoff bound: Push. The offense is potent enough to carry the load, but the defensive showing we saw against the Chargers I believe to be a fluke. It seems every time you go into a game thinking “this is going to be a high scoring affair” it somehow turns into a defensive dog fight, and that’s what we saw. I do think they are the second best team in the AFC East, behind Philly, but that division is definitely winnable, and compared to the other current wildcard contenders they are middle of the pack.

-Despite the injuries, Baltimore is a playoff team: Backing out. Sunday night’s win was huge, but it was also at home and Kansas City’s defense is currently the only thing that could keep the Chiefs from making the Super Bowl for the third straight season. I still feel Cleveland is the best team in that division, which means Baltimore will be fighting for a wildcard spot. With all the injuries I just don’t see them getting in front of Denver/LAC/Vegas (potentially two of those teams), New England, and maybe not even Cincy.

FANTASY WAIVER WIRE TARGETS

QB: Daniel Jones (NY Giants) or Sam Darnold (Carolina)/Teddy Bridgewater (Denver)/Derek Carr (Las Vegas)

This is a two part suggestion. If you are just looking for someone to stream for the week then I’d strongly consider grabbing Daniel Jones. He’s coming off a good week and now he gets to play Atlanta who surrendered 28 points to Hurts and 29 to Brady.

If you are looking for someone who can be a season long investment my suggestions are to look at Darnold, Bridgewater and Carr. All three are playing good football right now, the play calling is working for them and the talent around them is helping boost their play. Personally, I think Carr is the guy to target out of the three.

RB: Cordarrelle Patterson (Atlanta)

This might look overblown because his fantasy point total was overblown thanks to his two touchdowns, but look at Atlanta’s backfield. Mike Davis was supposed to be THE guy for them, but he’s carried the ball 24 times, at just 3.6 yards per carry. They need more explosiveness, which Patterson has. Plus, after watching their week 2 game, I think Smith was really starting to enjoy finding different ways to get Patterson the ball.

WR: Rondale Moore (Arizona)

BUT BE CAREFUL! Moore is explosive like we all knew he would be and man did it show on several plays against the Vikings. There’s no reason he won’t continue to get plenty of looks in Arizona’s explosive offense. I’m urging some caution because Moore started just 7 games in his last two seasons thanks to a season ending injury in 2019, and dealing with, I believe, a hamstring issue in 2020. There’s a very high risk of injury already because of his size (5’7, 180 pounds), and the dark cloud of hamstring issues that tends to hang over speedsters. Just don’t put all your eggs in his basket.

WR: K.J. Osborn (Minnesota)

In the first two weeks he’s been targeted 15 times catching 12 of them for 167 yards and a touchdown. The targets are third on the team behind Jefferson (19) and Thielen (17). With the loss of Irv Smith it appears Osborn has taken over the third passing option role in Minnesota’s offense and he’s doing well with it. Since Smith is done for the year and Cousins has been playing well in relative shootouts I’d expect the opportunities for Osborn to remain decently high.

TE: Jared Cook (LA Chargers)

A difficult position to fix if you fail to land one of the top guys in the draft. Cook is owned in under 50% of leagues on Yahoo. If you’re needing a Tight End and he’s out there you should grab him. He’s not going to stockpile huge receiving yard totals, but it’s nice to see the 13 targets through two weeks and if you watched the game on Sunday then you know he was targeted by Herbert near the goal line, which is where he needs to be to make you money this year.

K: Brandon McManus (Denver)

McManus is someone you can likely rely on all season long. He’s already scored 22 fantasy points and this week he’s worth the stream thanks to a matchup with the Jets. But you can hang onto him beyond that even. Denver’s offense is moving the ball well and playing smart football, so even when they run into the likes of Pitt in two weeks, you should be able to rely on the Broncos to at least get into Field Goal range.

D: Carolina Panthers

There is no reason Carolina should not be your number one defensive target this week if you are streaming defenses. They are playing Houston who just lost Tyrod Taylor and will be starting Davis Mills. Mills who played all of like 12 games(?) in college and wasn’t very impressive. The same Mills who completed just 44% of his passes and threw a pick when he stepped in for Taylor on Sunday.