Lance's 2021 Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 went a lot better, but no point in making some big long blurb up here when the good stuff is below.

Last Week: 11-5

Overall Record: 17-15

Carolina over Houston

Carolina’s defense can win this game by themselves. I have zero faith in Davis Mills. It’ll be interesting to see if after this week we hear a tune change in how Houston talks about Deshaun Watson, or if they just wait out Tyrod Taylor’s injury (he’s expected back in 3-4 weeks).

LA Chargers over Kansas City

My decision here came down to one thing, which defense do I think can make a stop when it’s needed most? Based on the first two weeks I have a lot more faith in what the Chargers have going for them on that side of the ball than I do the Chiefs.

Arizona over Jacksonville

It’s night and day between these two teams. Arizona in a runaway.

Cleveland over Chicago

Don’t be surprised if this is a closer game than you might have originally thought. With Dalton ruled out and Fields named the starter, Cleveland may struggle with the unknown. There’s minimal tape they’ll have to go on, and you’d expect Chicago to have a different scheme ready to better fit Fields’ style anyway, which means there’s basically no tape for the Browns to rely on. Still, I’m taking the Browns and their coaching staff.

Buffalo over Washington

You should know by now that Washington’s defense has been playing poorly, and if you hadn’t seen, Josh Allen is also playing poorly. Trying to decide who would take advantage of who on that end gave me a headache, so I focused on Buffalo’s defense vs Taylor Heinicke. I’m liking Heinicke, but I think he’s about to have a very tough outing. The Bills’ defense wins this game for them.

Tennessee over Indianapolis

Without Wentz, I think the Titans take care of business. With an injured Wentz on the field, I think the Titans take care of business. Really, I only see this game going one way.

New England over New Orleans

This figures to be a defensive slugfest, so I gave the edge to the Patriots.

Atlanta over NY Giants

For all intents and purposes Daniel Jones should be able to follow up his big week two performance with another big game. I just don’t see it happening. He’s too inconsistent and turnover prone to be relied on. The Giants run defense is terrible and their pass defense isn’t much better. Look for the Falcons to get Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson going to alleviate pressure on Matt Ryan.

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

Cincinnati’s defense has been showing drastic improvements. I can see Ja’Marr Chase burning Pitt deep just like Ruggs did, and I think it’s also worth mentioning Higgins had 113 yards and a score in the one Pitt game Burrow was healthy for last year. This is Cincy’s chance to show us all that they’re a real threat in the AFC North this year.

Baltimore over Detroit

I’d love to pick Detroit, I think they can absolutely take advantage of Baltimore’s defensive deficiencies, but with the way they’ve been playing there’s no way they can stop Lamar Jackson, in any aspect.

Denver over NY Jets

Wilson cannot catch a break with his defensive opponents. Denver dominates both sides of the ball for the easy win.

Las Vegas over Miami

Jacoby Brissett did not inspire confidence when he took over, and honestly he wasn’t all that good when he was running things in Indy. Las Vegas does what we didn’t think was possible before the season, they start 3-0.

LA Rams over Tampa Bay

I went back and forth on this one, but the thing is, Tampa’s secondary has shown weaknesses, and the Rams secondary hasn’t.

Minnesota over Seattle

The Vikings have been so close in their first two games. Seattle’s offense is deadly, but Minnesota has already shown they can run with the high scoring teams. I’m giving the edge to the home team.

San Francisco over Green Bay

Surprise, Green Bay is bad against the run once again. San Fran uses any and every back they have on the starting roster Sunday night to run all over Green Bay just like they did in the playoffs two years ago.

Philadelphia over Dallas

I’ve already said I think Philly is the best team in this division right now. Hurts has a field day through the air and on the ground leading the Eagles to the win.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 1-3

QB Start: Jalen Hurts at Dallas

If Hurts hasn’t convinced you that he can be a fantasy football starter yet, then you should probably drop that biased viewpoint and start looking at his stats. In week one he took advantage of a weak Atlanta secondary and threw for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns and ran for another 62. Last week he had trouble with San Fran’s pass defense, but he made up for it by accumulating 80 yards on the ground with a score. True dual-threat QBs are fantasy darlings and Hurts is not an exception, he is currently QB5 in fantasy land. Get him in your lineups against a beatable Dallas defense.

QB Sit: Tom Brady at LA Rams

Brady had three not great games last year; two came against the Saints and the third was against the Rams. LA has their pass defense clicking at just about the same level it was last year, so I think it would be safer to sit Brady as long as your backup has a good matchup.

RB Record: 3-1

RB Start: Javonte Williams vs NY Jets

Williams and Gordon each saw 13 carries last week and this time it was Williams who did more with it. The Jets allowed Damien Harris and James White to each account for 60+ yards and a touchdown last week, and in week one CMC had 188 total yards on them. If you’re trying to choose between one or the other, go with Williams.

RB Sit: Damien Harris vs New Orleans

Harris has had a good start to the year, but the Saints defense has been a run stuffing machine going back to all of last season. Harris doesn’t offer much in the pass game, so it’s better if you let him sit this one out.

WR Record: 3-1

WR Start: Donovan Peoples-Jones vs Chicago

I’m going completely off the wall here. Jarvis Landry is now on the I.R. and Beckham is trending towards returning, but it’s not a guarantee and who knows how healthy he’ll actually be. That leaves Anthony Schwartz, Demetric Felton, Rashard Higgins and Peoples-Jones. The smarter money might be on Higgins who has been with the team longer, or Schwartz and Felton who have done more through two weeks, but I’m taking DPJ. He’s a big dude who was expected to be the starting outside Receiver opposite OBJ heading into the year and this is a plus matchup against the Bears who have struggled against Receivers so far this year.

WR Sit: Brandin Cooks vs Carolina

Cooks is the #10 Receiver in fantasy football as it stands right now. That’ll change this week. Carolina’s defense has been phenomenal in all aspects. And Davis Mills will be starting in place of Tyrod Taylor who has landed on the I.R.

TE Record: 3-1

TE Start: Kyle Pitts at NY Giants

Pitts was able to accomplish more this past week, then he did in week one, and the Giants have not done well against Tight Ends. I did list Logan Thomas against them last week and Thomas did not finish top 12 (he finished tied for 14th), but I got a good feeling about this one!

TE Sit: Jack Doyle at Tennessee

Doyle stepped up in week two and if it weren’t for a double-ankle sprain with Wentz I would have recommended him in my waiver priorities this week. With no Wentz, or potentially a hobbled Wentz, on the field I would say avoid Doyle this week. There’s also the fact that the Titans have done very well against Tight Ends through two weeks.

K Record: 1-3

K Start: Evan McPherson at Pittsburgh

Pitt looks like they’re trying to play bend-don’t break defense out there. The result has been seven Field Goals attempted against them through the first two weeks. I could see that continuing and if it does it will be favorable for McPherson.

K Sit: Tristan Vizcaino at Kansas City

If you’re streaming Kickers you might be eyeing this game and thinking since it should be high scoring Vizcaino will see plenty of action. You’re not entirely wrong, the problem is, based on the first two weeks, most of his work should be in the form of extra points. Kansas City has only forced a Field Goal in two high-scoring affairs. If a Kicker isn’t seeing FG opportunities, then it’s better to avoid them.

Defense Record: 3-1

Defense Start: Carolina Panthers at Houston

I listed the Panthers in my Waiver Priorities on Wednesday and I hope you listened cause they’re also my start this week. Carolina has played exceptionally well through two weeks and now they get to face off against a rookie who has minimal starting experience as a whole (college included). The results could help lead you to a win this week.

Defense Sit: Chicago Bears at Cleveland

Don’t double down on Chicago’s big week two performance. Cleveland’s line will hold up better than Cincy’s did and Baker has played smarter football under Stefanski, meaning less turnovers, meaning less fantasy points for opposing defenses.