Lance's 2021 Week 4 Predictions
I miscounted last week, I only went 10-6, not 11-5, so my overall record would have been 16-16 heading into week 3. The adjustments are reflected below.
Last Week: 13-3
Overall Record: 29-19
**I forgot to get this out before the Thursday night game, but I did take Cincinnati, I just didn't think it would be as close as it was.**
Tennessee over NY Jets
Expect a whole lot of Derrick Henry. The Jets are bad against the run and Henry is already in midseason form. But I will say, don’t be too surprised if New York’s offense shows signs of life this week, Tennessee’s defense is allowing 28 points and nearly 360 total yards per game this season.
Detroit over Chicago
The Lions are not playing like an 0-3 team, but Chicago is. After watching Cleveland wreck Chicago’s O-Line last week, I could see Detroit doing the same, helping cover up any deficiencies in their secondary. And then using that RBBC to run the ball down Chicago’s throat and control the clock.
Indianapolis over Miami
Miami’s weakness is defending the run, and the Colts need to rely more on their run game if they want to get out of this 0-3 hole they’ve dug themselves into. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines lead Indy to win number one.
Cleveland over Minnesota
Like Miami, the Vikings can’t stop the run to save their lives. Chubb and Hunt should have a field day, and the Browns defense should be able to do enough to keep the Vikings pass game from creating a big lead and forcing Mayfield to try and beat them.
Washington over Atlanta
I had a hard time making this decision, but Heinicke is playing well, which makes Washington’s offense capable on the ground and through the air, and Atlanta’s defense is going to struggle to stop them. Also, this is Washington’s chance to build some morale along the defensive front. Atlanta’s O-Line is not good and Young and company can take full advantage of that if they put forth the effort.
Buffalo over Houston
Josh Allen and the way he just played against Houston’s defense, or the third round rookie Davis Mills against Buffalo’s defense? Ya, seems pretty obvious to me too.
New Orleans over NY Giants
The Saints play in New Orleans for the first time this year, the air will be electric and the play on the field will be dominated by one side.
Philadelphia over Kansas City
Huge upset pick. Even in that blowout loss to the Cowboys, Philly’s defense still looked better than what K.C. has been running with. Hurts runs and throws all over the Chiefs leading the Eagles to a statement win, that statement isn’t about them though, it’s about the Chiefs.
Dallas over Carolina
Two things that are going to kill Carolina in this game, not having CMC and not having Jaycee Horn. Horn was playing very well to open the year and without him Dallas is going to have a lot more freedom throwing the ball. And I mean no disrespect to Chuba Hubbard (who I still think will have a good game) but we know he’s no CMC. McCaffrey could have taken full advantage of Dallas’ awful run defense and broken this game open for the Panthers. Perhaps Hubbard can too, but I’m not going to bank on it.
San Francisco over Seattle
It didn’t take long for Seattle’s defense to return to their 2020 form. Garoppolo, Lance, and whatever Running Backs they have this week should be able to take care of business at home.
Arizona over LA Rams
Going out on a limb. I think Arizona offers up too many playmakers in the pass game, coupled with Murray’s ability to scramble, for the Rams defense to lock them down. The score gets a little out of hand (in other words, bet the over), and it ends with the Cards sitting alone on top of the NFC West.
Green Bay over Pittsburgh
After a poor week one performance the Packers are surging, and after a solid week one outing Pitt is dropping fast. No need to get cute here, Green Bay takes it at home.
Denver over Baltimore
As I’m writing this I’m still going back and forth. The ultimate reason for picking Denver is because of Baltimore’s performance in Detroit last week. They needed a no call delay of game penalty and walk off 66 yard FG to take it. Denver may have played some bad teams through the first three weeks but at least they’ve won each of those games convincingly.
Tampa Bay over New England
Don’t just cast the Pats aside in this one. They’re at home and they have one of the top defenses in the league right now (5th in PPG allowed and 2nd in pass yards/game allowed), their weakness is the run and that’s what Tampa doesn’t do much of on offense. Still, the Pats have a young QB trying to find his footing and the Bucs have a lot of talent New England will have to try and lock down.
LA Chargers over Las Vegas
Two reasons for taking LA, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. I don’t think the Raiders can slow them down.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 2-4
QB Start: Taylor Heinicke vs Atlanta
It was a tough call this week. I think those guys that you should be relying on to finish top 12 will be up there (i.e., Mahomes, Murray, Allen, Wilson, Hurts, Herbert, Cousins). I see Burrow and Heinicke as being two guys who can crack that party this week. Atlanta’s pass defense isn’t good, and Heinicke is coming off back to back 20+ point fantasy games.
QB Sit: Ryan Tannehill at NY Jets
If you have Tannehill you might be thinking “easy points.” Not necessarily. The Jets have surprisingly been one of the better teams against opposing QBs in fantasy. They’ve also been one of the worst against RBs. Expect this one to be another Derrick Henry heavy performance for the Titans.
RB Record: 5-1
RB Start: Jonathan Taylor at Miami
Some of you reading this may look at Taylor and think I’m taking the easy way out, but that’s not the case. Yes, he is a bigger name at the position, BUT he’s only finished top 24 in 1 of the first 3 weeks. This is his chance at a “get right game.” Miami has allowed a lot of fantasy points to opposing RBs and like I said above, if the Colts want to win this one they need to rely on Taylor.
RB Sit: Ezekiel Elliott vs Carolina
Zeke is back!...not so fast. He did have a big game against the Eagles but Carolina has been one of the best teams against the run so far this season including shutting down Alvin Kamara in week 2. With Zeke already having to deal with losing touches to Pollard, it’ll be difficult for him to build off his big performance.
WR Record: 3-3
WR Start: Jakobi Meyers vs Tampa Bay
Meyers saw a team high 14 targets in week 3 and leads the team overall with 29 (11 more than the next highest). In a game that will probably force the Patriots to air it out against a banged up Bucs secondary, Meyers has the best chance of having a great fantasy performance.
WR Sit: Henry Ruggs at LA Chargers
The Chargers have done a fantastic job of shutting down opposing Receivers in fantasy. Last week they kept a fellow burner, Tyreek Hill, to 56 yards on 5 catches. Ruggs has had two solid weeks in a row, including 7 targets in both weeks, but if you picked him up you should leave him on your bench.
TE Record: 4-2
TE Start: Noah Fant vs Baltimore
The Ravens shutdown T.J. Hockenson in week 3 and they still rank in the top ten for points allowed to Tight Ends in fantasy. Unlike Detroit, the Tight End isn’t the only target in Denver’s pass game, so the Ravens won’t be able to focus on Fant.
TE Sit: Tyler Higbee vs Arizona
The Cardinals secondary is allowing a lot of points to Receivers in fantasy and barely any to Tight Ends. Don’t be surprised if Kupp and Woods completely dominate the targets, and Higbee slides back into the shadows.
K Record: 3-3
K Start: Younghoe Koo vs Washington
Washington is allowing everyone to unload on them, including Kickers! Currently they’re allowing the most fantasy points to opposing Kickers.
K Sit: Ryan Succop at New England
I almost went back to the K.C.-well because they are having a very difficult time keeping opponents out of the end zone, but I decided to switch it up this week. New England isn’t allowing much in the way of points to opposing Kickers. I also feel that we’re going to see one of two things in this game: A) Brady does everything he can to score touchdowns to punish his former team and coach, or B) Belichick locks down Tampa’s offense and demonstrates he knows how to stop his old QB. Neither one bodes well for Succop.
Defense Record: 5-1
Defense Start: Indianapolis Colts at Miami
BRISSETT REVenge game? Not every opportunity for a revenge game actually works out in the players favor, and I think this is one of those instances. Miami's offense was very inefficient last week with Brissett, and it didn't do much with Tagovailoa before that, that's why they're currently the third lowest scoring team in the league. Indy's defense has been quietly doing well in fantasy, and I think they take advantage of Miami's offensive shortcomings.
Defense Sit: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota
Cleveland wrecked the Bears offense and finished as a top five defense in fantasy. You might be thinking they’re getting to where we all thought they could get to before the season, and they might be, but it’s safer not to test that out this week against a Vikings offense that’s averaging 27 points per game and has barely turned the ball over.
