Lance's 2021 Week 5 Predictions
Last Week: 10-6
Overall Record: 39-25
LA Rams over Seattle
Seattle just doesn’t have the defense to be able to hang with the Rams. You really never know with these NFC West games, but the best bet is to take LA.
NY Jets over Atlanta
After watching the Jets completely disassemble Tennessee’s O-Line, I don’t see a reason why they can’t do the same to Atlanta’s. Zach Wilson has a new career best day and leads the Jets to their second straight win.
Minnesota over Detroit
Cousins, Jefferson and Thielen have already showcased what they are capable of. They could easily hit another level against Detroit’s lackluster secondary.
New Orleans over Washington
Running on the Saints is not an easy thing to do and chances are Gibson/McKissic are not going to get much on the ground. That puts the ball in Heinicke’s hands, and if he tries to pull the same things he did against Atlanta, there’s going to be a bunch of turnovers.
New England over Houston
It’s another rookie QB against Belichick. Mills thought he had it rough against Buffalo last week, it’s about to get a whole lot worse.
Tampa Bay over Miami
We’d have to see last year’s version of this Dolphins defense in order for me to pick Miami, because I’m not putting my faith in Brissett, and right now that’s just not the unit the Dolphins have been rolling out.
Cincinnati over Green Bay
It might seem like a longshot, but the Bengals have been playing good football on both sides of the ball. If they can get Mixon going it’ll be a long day for the Packers.
Pittsburgh over Denver
If you can get in Drew Lock’s head you can send him into a turnover-induced downward spiral. Pitt has the defense to wreak that kind of havoc. IF TEDDY PLAYS I will switch my pick to Denver.
Carolina over Philadelphia
Darnold continues to play at an MVP level (ya, I said it), while Hurts has been up and down. Based on strengths and weaknesses, Carolina should be trying to run the ball, and Philly should be trying to take advantage of Carolina’s Jaycee Horn-less secondary. I just can’t trust Hurts enough to pick Philly.
Tennessee over Jacksonville
With the Urban Meyer situation acting as a distraction and Tennessee coming off a loss to the Jets, I could see the Titans doing everything in their power to run the Jags into the ground.
Cleveland over LA Chargers
Both of these defenses are playing very good football right now, but the Chargers have one big weakness that works out in Cleveland’s favor: they can’t stop the run. They can try and stack the box to keep Chubb and Hunt from running wild, but even with the lack of fire Baker has shown so far this year, we’ve seen him turn it on at the drop of a hat in the past.
Las Vegas over Chicago
Just as I was writing this section I got a notification that Fields has been named the full time starter by Chicago, good for him, but it won’t help them this week. Fields has looked alright so far, and he did show improvement, but he still struggles to get the ball out quickly, so watch out for Maxx Crosby and the slightly overlooked Raiders pass rush. Also, Derek Carr should be able to get back on track.
Arizona over San Francisco
Arizona has been way too explosive offensively for the Niners to keep up. I read yesterday that San Fran’s best chance at hanging with the Cards is to start Trey Lance. I agree with that slightly. Lance does offer the big play excitement, but he still needs work, specifically on his decision making. Don’t throw him into this fire, that’s a good way to hurt any confidence he may have built up. Of course they won’t have a choice if Garoppolo isn’t fit to play.
Dallas over NY Giants
Dallas is rolling and the Giants are a sporadic mess, led by the current king of streaky QB play himself, Daniel Jones. I’m taking the Cowboys and I’m taking Trevon Diggs to add another pick to his league leading total, which currently sits at five.
Buffalo over Kansas City
Until the Chiefs turn things around on defense I’m going to look at every week from one point of view: Is the opponents offense at least halfway talented and can their defense get a few stops? The answer is yes to both of those questions for Buffalo.
Baltimore over Indianapolis
I’m picking the Ravens to use Latavius Murray and Lamar Jackson to run all over Indy’s defense and break the consecutive games with a 100+ yards rushing streak. The Colts could have a shot if they get their pass game going against Baltimore’s banged up secondary, but I’m not ready to pick Indy to win when they have to rely on Wentz.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 4-4
QB Start: Jameis Winston at Washington
He’s not the most reliable player and could easily toss five picks without a second thought, and there’s the presence of Taysom Hill that makes trusting him difficult. However, Washington is giving up a lot of points to QBs in fantasy. This is the week to trust Winston.
QB Sit: Taylor Heinicke vs New Orleans
He was fantastic last week, but the Saints are a whole different animal than the Falcons. They had a bad week against Daniel Jones, don’t expect the same to happen for Heinicke. If you grabbed him for last week’s game like I suggested, I’d drop him and grab someone else for this week.
RB Record: 6-2
RB Start: Damien Williams at Las Vegas
Bill Lazor is calling the shots in Chicago again and it’s very clear he wants to establish the run to take the pressure off his Quarterback, just like he did in the second half of 2020. David Montgomery is out, moving Damien Williams up to RB1. Even as the RB2 last week he was still a relevant fantasy option. If you snagged him off your waiver wire, get him in your lineup.
RB Sit: Najee Harris vs Denver
I kind of don’t want to list Harris just because Big Ben has become the new checkdown king, but Denver’s allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing Running Backs, so I feel like I have to. Last week marked the first rushing touchdown they allowed to a Running Back this season.
WR Record: 4-4
WR Start: Henry Ruggs vs Chicago
Ruggs was a sit for me last week and it was the right call, but this week you should get him in your lineup if you can. The Bears are struggling to stop opposing pass catchers, especially the guys that start on the outside. Look for some deep shots to be taken to open things up for Vegas.
WR Sit: Odell Beckham Jr. at LA Chargers
He’s seen 16 targets in the two weeks he’s been back, so the volume makes it difficult to bench him, but the Chargers have been incredibly stingy against opposing Receivers. They have not yet allowed a single Receiver to finish top 24 in fantasy football (Hunter Renfrow and CeeDee Lamb both finished as the WR25 the weeks they played LAC).
TE Record: 6-2
TE Start: Jonnu Smith at Houston
Houston has allowed a Tight End to score double-digit points in back to back weeks. I’d say start Smith and Hunter Henry, but since I’d prefer to pick just one I’m going with Smith who has had 5 or 6 targets in each of the first four weeks.
TE Sit: Jared Cook vs Cleveland
Cook is coming off a very good game, but I’m urging caution. It’s his first double-digit performance of the season, and the Chargers are far more likely to go back to featuring Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
K Record: 3-5
K Start: Greg Joseph vs Detroit
For all the same reason why I listed him as the Kicker to target on the waiver wire this week if you’re streaming. In case you missed it, here’s a link to the article: INSERT LINK
K Sit: Mason Crosby at Cincinnati
Believe it or not, Cincy is currently top ten in scoring defense. They’ve only allowed more than one FG in a game once this year (and that Kicker made two). If the opportunities aren’t there then the Kicker isn’t worth starting in fantasy land.
Defense Record: 6-2
Defense Start: New England at Houston
I know, I’m listing two Patriots in my starts, I’m a very bad person. Fact of the matter is the Patriots play great football against rookie QBs, and the one they’re facing in this game threw four picks last week while Houston failed to score any points.
Defense Sit: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
Seattle doesn’t allow opposing defenses to score very many fantasy points against them. Since the Cards and Bucs kept the Rams defense from a top 12 fantasy finish, we know it can be done.
