Lance's 2021 Week 6 Predictions
Last Week: 11-5
Overall Record: 50-30
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
We’ve seen Philly’s defense struggle in recent weeks and we’ve also seen that Hurts and company can’t keep up with explosive offenses (check the KC vs Philly tape if you doubt me).
Jacksonville over Miami
The Jags get win number one, and it’s in London, their second home. Lawrence has his best game to date against a struggling Miami secondary.
Kansas City over Washington
Washington should be able to score, but their defense hasn’t shown the same life they had last year, which should make things easy for Mahomes.
LA Rams over NY Giants
The banged up Giants that we saw last week will not stand a chance against the Rams. Heck, a completely healthy Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley wouldn’t stand a chance against the Rams.
Indianapolis over Houston
The Texans were surprisingly good, but that was at home. Home is where they got their only win on the season and where they lost to the Pats by three. On the road they’ve managed to lose by 10 and by 40. The Colts have looked pretty good. Seriously, they had the Ravens (4-1), but failed to finish them off, and they took the Rams (4-1) to the brink. A couple slight tweaks in those two games and they're sitting at 3-2 with two big wins.
Cincinnati over Detroit
Detroit has been feisty, so this game won’t be easy for the Bengals. The key is Cincy has to take advantage of Detroit’s abysmal defense early (and they absolutely can), that’ll cause Detroit to get out of their offensive comfort zone and start heavily throwing the ball. The Bengals are allowing just 4.6 YPA on the road.
Green Bay over Chicago
I strongly considered taking Chicago at home against their big rivals. The deciding factor was that old adage about comparing the Quarterbacks that are competing. Rodgers vs Fields, or Rodgers vs Dalton, doesn’t matter, the feeling remains the same.
LA Chargers over Baltimore
Basically the same matchup the Chargers had last week, except Baltimore’s defense has not played on the same level Cleveland’s has. The Chargers torch the Ravens.
Carolina over Minnesota
I’m taking the Panthers for one very simple reason: The Vikings defense has been non-existent on the road. I love my team and I never want to see them lose, but it doesn’t make sense to pick them this week.
Cleveland over Arizona
The Browns almost had the Chargers for the exact reason I gave when I picked them, LAC can’t stop the run and Cleveland can run the crap out of the ball. Same rules apply here, except now Cleveland is at home, where their defense has been a different kind of monster.
Las Vegas over Denver
If Gruden was coaching I would take Denver. Statistically these two matchup pretty evenly, so the edge would go to the home team. But in recent years I’ve witnessed too many interim coaches pull off the win in their first game. So, I’m going with Vegas.
Dallas over New England
The Pats at home are a lot better than the Pats on the road, but Dallas has been an unstoppable force and New England is not on that level.
Pittsburgh over Seattle
Geno Smith looked great against the Rams when he had to come in. Blah blah blah. No, I’m not buying that Geno Smith is a new player. It’s not easy for a defense to adjust to a new QB mid-game, when they spent the whole week game planning for a different guy. Pitt will be ready for Smith come Sunday night.
Tennessee over Buffalo
Buffalo has been spectacular defensively with the one exception being their ability to stop the run on the road. I know, small sample size, they’ve only played two road games so far, but let’s not write it off completely. Derrick Henry can take over a game by himself and I think that’s what Buffalo is in store for.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 6-4
QB Start: Trevor Lawrence vs Miami
Lawrence has steadily improved each week since his 118 yard week 2 performance. Miami is bottom ten in pass yards allowed, and bottom ten in YPA allowed on the road. They’ve also allowed 12 touchdown passes (tied for fourth most in the league). Meaning, Lawrence has a very good chance at posting new career highs in yards and touchdowns, he just needs to limit the picks.
QB Sit: Baker Mayfield vs Arizona
Like I said above, Arizona has struggled to stop the run; they’ve been solid against the pass though. I don’t think Mayfield is going to have a pick filled day or anything, I just see this as being one of those “20 attempt” kind of outings where he doesn’t rack up much statistically, he just does enough to help his team win. In other words, don’t expect him to build off his big game against the Chargers.
RB Record: 7-3
RB Start: Javonte Williams vs Las Vegas
In the last two games Williams has had 15 total carries, but he’s gone for 7.3 YPC. It would behoove Denver to get him the ball in this one, as Vegas is currently allowing 4.3 YPC to RBs on the road, and they’re allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the road.
RB Sit: Miles Sanders vs Tampa Bay
Tampa has been much better against opposing fantasy RBs when playing at home than they’ve been on the road, so it might make sense to start Sanders. I would avoid him if you can though. He’s hit double-digits once this year, and the Eagles have shown they like using Kenny Gainwell in passing situations, which may end up being the entire game for Philly.
WR Record: 5-5
WR Start: Robby Anderson vs Minnesota
I think I tried this once before and it didn’t go in my favor. Let me try it again; start Robby Anderson. I was going to list Darnold at QB, but I decided to go with the less obvious choice in Lawrence. Minnesota has been great against the pass at home, they’ve been awful in coverage on the road. If you drafted Anderson, this may be the breakout week you’ve been waiting for.
WR Sit: Marquise Brown vs LA Chargers
Brown’s having a career year, but this is not the game to rely on him in. The Chargers are bad against the run and they haven’t been very good at covering Tight Ends, but Receivers they’ve done a good job of locking down.
TE Record: 7-3
TE Start: Mo Alie-Cox vs Houston
Houston is allowing the second most points to Tight Ends at home and on the road. They’re just plain bad at covering the position. Alie-Cox had a big game two weeks ago, and last week he had a couple big catches. Also, since week 2 he’s been targeted 11 times to Doyle’s 4.
TE Sit: Dawson Knox at Tennessee
Knox has scored in four straight weeks, but the Titans have only allowed one touchdown to the position, and they’ve only allowed one TE to go for more than 20 yards on them (different players). This is a difficult position to bench a player on a hot streak, but if you have another option I would sit Knox.
K Record: 4-6
K Start: Evan McPherson at Detroit
Detroit continues to be the most giving team to Kickers from a fantasy perspective. And I’m going to pick on them again because McPherson is only 5% rostered on Yahoo, and hasn’t hit double-digits since week 1. Go get him and stick him in your starting lineups!
K Sit: Matt Prater at Cleveland
The Browns haven’t allowed a Kicker to score double-digit points on them since week 1. Prater is having a solid season, but with the way Cleveland’s defense has been playing (either allowing mostly touchdowns, or shutting teams down) I’d say this would be a good week to bench him.
Defense Record: 6-4
Defense Start: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston
They failed me last week, but I’m going for it again! Indy has a good defense and a good defensive coordinator, and I’m gonna go ahead and say Mills’ play last week was a fluke.
Defense Sit: Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland
I don’t like picking on the same team twice like I am by taking Prater and the Cards defense, but they’re rostered in 53% of Yahoo leagues, so I feel like the warning is needed. The Browns offense is at it’s best when they can run at will (just like last week). It allows them to open up the field for Mayfield who struggles when he’s forced to put the team on his shoulders. And like I mentioned up in my pick’em area, Arizona has not been able to stop the run on the road.
