Lance's 2021 Week 7 Predictions
Last Week: 11-3
Overall Record: 61-33
Denver over Cleveland
This has “Mayfield blows up to prove the doubters wrong” written all over it. But with no Chubb and no Hunt I can’t in good conscience pick Cleveland against the Denver defense.
Carolina over NY Giants
I wavered on this one because of the sporadic nature of Daniel Jones and the Giants as a whole lately. But then I thought about how Darnold closed out the game against Minnesota and I’m thinking he can build off that here.
New England over NY Jets
Has enough changed in five weeks for the Jets to reverse the tide of that 25-6 debacle they had at the hands of New England? If you’re going to choose the Jets this week, then your answer to that has to be yes. After watching Zach Wilson struggle against Atlanta before their bye week, my answer is no.
Tennessee over Kansas City
I’m taking the Titans for the same reason I picked them to beat Buffalo last week, Derrick Henry. Kansas City is currently allowing 5.7 YPC when playing on the road, the most of any road team.
Green Bay over Washington
All you have to do is look at how the two teams are playing to determine which one you should pick. Hint hint, it’s not the team who’s best asset (their defense) is currently the big thing holding them back.
Miami over Atlanta
Miami is currently a one trick pony on offense, but luckily for them it’s something Atlanta doesn’t defend particularly well, the pass. Tagovailoa had a 340 yard game against the Jags, I wouldn’t be surprised if he matches or beats that this week.
Cincinnati over Baltimore
I feel like I’m planning Baltimore’s doom every week. I swear I’m not picking on them, I think they’re a very talented team and I love Jackson, but Cincinnati’s been the better team as a whole. Burrow’s playing well, Chase is a top five Receiver statistically, Mixon’s playing efficiently and the defense has really stepped up their game considering where they were at last year. If Baltimore’s defense plays like they did last week, then the Ravens win, if instead we see the same unit from weeks 1-5, they lose, cause I don’t see Cincy’s defense allowing Jackson and company to walk all over them.
LA Rams over Detroit
The only way the Rams lose this is if they get caught looking ahead, but next week they’ve got Houston, so I don’t see that happening.
Philadelphia over Las Vegas
Hurts has shown every week this year that when the pass isn’t there he can run with it and vice versa. Vegas is playing the pass well this year, but the run is a whole different story. Hurts and Sanders carry Philly to victory, maybe even some Gainwell sprinkled in.
Arizona over Houston
There’s no justification needed for taking the Cards here.
Tampa Bay over Chicago
Don’t be surprised if Fields makes a big stride in performance in this one, but also don’t expect the Bears to hang with Tampa. They’re struggling to cover outside Receivers, and Tampa has about 50 guys who can dominate the Bears Corners on the perimeter.
San Francisco over Indianapolis
This is a pretty even match. They should both be looking to use the run to set up the pass, but the strengths for both defenses is playing the run (SF allowing 3.9 YPC at home, and Indy allowing 3.9 YPC on the road). I still hope it’s a run heavy game since I have Taylor and Mitchell in two leagues each! I took San Fran cause they’re coming off a bye week and are at home.
New Orleans over Seattle
I’m picking against Seattle for the same reason I picked against them last week, Geno Smith. Also, Winston has the ability to light up a weak secondary like Seattle’s, something no one expected Roethlisberger to do (and he didn’t). So, if you're placing a bet against the spread, take New Orleans at -5.5, even if that were to jump to -10.5 I still say pick the Saints.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 7-5
QB Start: Ryan Tannehill vs Kansas City
Tannehill has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments this year. He’s managed just one game of 20+ fantasy points. Well, this should be game number two. I don’t care what KC did to Heinicke last week, based on what they’ve done as a whole I’d call that a fluke. They’re not getting after the Quarterback, which is the biggest weakness in Tennessee’s offense (the ability to protect the passer), and they’ve allowed three QBs to score 30+ on them.
QB Sit: Derek Carr vs Philadelphia
Excluding Patrick Mahomes’ huge game against Philly, the Eagles haven’t really allowed opposing QBs to dominate them from a fantasy perspective. Mahomes scored over 32 points on them, the next highest was Dak Prescott at 20. Bench Carr, unless you have absolutely no other options.
RB Record: 8-4
RB Start: James Conner vs Houston
I really hope this doesn’t backfire on me. Conner has had 10 or more carries in five out of his six games. He should see plenty of work this week against a team that the Cards should dominate early, similar to how last week played out between him and Chase Edmonds.
RB Sit: D’Ernest Johnson vs Denver
With Chubb and Hunt out I know a lot of people flocked to the wire to grab Johnson, this just isn’t a good matchup for him. Denver has been very stingy against opposing RBs in fantasy, especially on the road. And don’t be surprised if Demetric Felton steals a lot of touches out of the backfield, specifically on screens and swing routes.
WR Record: 6-6
WR Start: Darnell Mooney at Tampa Bay
I picked Mooney back up in my work league this week in preparation for this game. No, it’s not point chasing because Mooney scored last week. It’s because one, Tampa allows a good amount of fantasy points to Receivers, and two, Mooney has had 7 or 8 targets in 4 out of 6 games this year. High target volume vs. a weak secondary typically results in a good fantasy outing.
WR Sit: Devonta Smith at Las Vegas
Vegas has been very good at shutting down Receivers at especially at home. They’re not all that good against the run, which is why I think we’ll see Hurts do a lot of tucking and running. It’s probably safer to sit Smith.
TE Record: 9-3
TE Start: Hunter Henry vs NY Jets
If you have a Receiver going against the Jets this year, good luck, they’re 22nd in points allowed to opposing Receivers on the road, 29th at home. On the plus side, RBs and TEs typically have an easy time against them. Bodes well for Henry who has out-targeted Jonnu Smith 15-9 over the last three weeks.
TE Sit: Mo Alie-Cox at San Francisco
He was my start last week, and barely made the top 12 cut against Houston who had allowed TEs to get to double-digits in three straight weeks prior to facing Indy. Not a good sign for him as he heads to San Fran to take on one of the most difficult defenses to go against if you’re a TE.
K Record: 5-7
K Start: Younghoe Koo at Miami
Miami’s allowed double-digit fantasy points to Kickers in all but one game this year. Hopefully Atlanta’s offense is well rested and ready to play coming off the bye week, and gives Koo plenty of opportunities to drain some kicks.
K Sit: Evan McPherson at Baltimore
This is more of a PSA. Baltimore hasn’t allowed a Kicker to score higher than 8 fantasy points against them since week 1. So, if you listened to me last week and streamed McPherson, you should drop him immediately and target someone else, like Koo, or Nick Folk.
Defense Record: 7-5
Defense Start: New Orleans Saints at Seattle
For record purposes I’m choosing the Saints as they’re coming off their bye and get to go against the Geno Smith-led Seahawks.
That point aside I also went and gave the waiver a look to see who is rostered in under 50% of leagues right now. IF you are desperate for a defense to stream this week and teams like the Saints, Cards, Pats and Panthers are all gone, my recommendation is to target Philly. Vegas does have the ability to pop off, but I don’t think we’re going to see that this week. Last week they were riding the Interim Coach’s first game wave, this week that shot of adrenaline will be gone.
Defense Sit: Green Bay Packers vs Washington
For some reason Green Bay is rostered in 61% of Yahoo leagues, and is being projected as the 7th highest scoring defense by Yahoo this week. Green Bay hasn’t had more than seven fantasy points in a week, and Washington, despite what you might think, hasn’t given up much in the way of fantasy points to opposing defenses. Barring one of those crazy “this should not have happened” circumstances, those people who are buying into the projected points by Yahoo are going to be sorely disappointed.
