Lance's 2021 Week 9 Predictions
Last Week: 7-8
Overall Record: 76-46
Indianapolis over NY Jets
Don’t expect Mike White to have another 400 yard outing, Indy’s defense will be better prepared for him than the Bengals were.
New Orleans over Atlanta
The Saints run defense will force Atlanta to throw the ball, which is actually unfortunate for the Saints who will likely be run heavy sans Jameis Winston. Atlanta’s run defense is beatable, but New Orleans’ pass defense has also been beatable at home. If the Falcons utilize Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson (through the air of course) they could force the Saints into an uncomfortable position.
Dallas over Denver
With or without Prescott I think Dallas runs away with this one. Denver’s struggling, they just shipped out their best healthy pass rusher, and the offense has been on the decline.
New England over Carolina
You’ll see it below too, Belichick knows how to get inside Darnold’s head.
Baltimore over Minnesota
Baltimore is coming off their bye and Minnesota is coming off a tough loss. Cooper rush was able to expose Minnesota’s Patrick Peterson-less secondary, I believe the Ravens will do the same thing while also taking advantage of Minnesota’s poor road rush defense.
Cincinnati over Cleveland
This was tougher than you might think because Cincinnati has struggled against the run at home. Conveniently, Cleveland has struggled against the pass on the road. If the Bengals force Cleveland to abandon the run early enough they can control the game.
Buffalo over Jacksonville
LOL
Miami over Houston
Miami’s home defense is a different animal than what they’ve rolled out on the road. The same can be said for Houston who is allowing around 10.0 YPA to Quarterbacks on the road. Tagovailoa may be in line for his best game to date.
Las Vegas over NY Giants
I figured the Raiders would fall apart two weeks after Gruden resigned, but that didn’t happen, so why would the information on Ruggs have any different effect? Carr, Renfrow, Edwards and, if he’s healthy, Waller dominate the Giants defense.
LA Chargers over Philadelphia
If Philly runs the way they did a week ago they could pull off the surprising upset since the Chargers have an awful run defense. Unfortunately for the Eagles, their pass defense can be taken advantage of, so Herbert and company could force Philly into throwing and that’s where LAC’s defense thrives.
Green Bay over Kansas City
Rodgers-less and still my pick to win because that’s how bad K.C.’s defense is. I feel like I saw enough from Love in the preseason to believe he’ll torch the Chiefs and lead the Packers to another win. He has the added benefit of basically no pro tape for the Chiefs to study him with.
San Francisco over Arizona
Another surprise upset pick. Arizona got beat by Green Bay because the Packers were able to slow Murray down and run the ball, two things the Niners can also accomplish.
LA Rams over Tennessee
If Henry was playing I would’ve taken the Titans. Without him we can expect to see more passing from Tennessee and that doesn’t bode well for them against the Rams who are tied for the most interceptions and lead the league in sacks.
Pittsburgh over Chicago
This was a toss-up. I picked Pitt because I believe their pass rush can torture Fields and force him to make bad mistakes.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, Ks, and Ds is based on if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 10-6
QB Start: Jordan Love at Kansas City
A spot start for a Quarterback with bare minimum tape on him against one of the worst defenses in the league. It’s a dream matchup for Love’s first career start, and it’ll be even better if Adams is good to go.
QB Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo vs Arizona
Garoppolo had a big week 8, but that was the first time he scored 20+ this year. Don’t chase the points, Arizona has allowed the fourth fewest points to Quarterbacks on the road.
RB Record: 10-6
RB Start: Jeremy McNichols at LA Rams
Fantasy Running Backs have had success against the Rams in LA this season. With AP just joining Tennessee, McNichols should see the bulk of the touches, especially on passing downs, which could be most of this game for the Titans.
RB Sit: Michael Carter at Indianapolis
Carter is coming off a monster week, but don’t chase the points. Indy has been stingy to RBs in fantasy this year.
WR Record: 8-8
WR Start: Marquise Brown vs Minnesota
I mentioned above that Dallas was able to dominate Minnesota’s secondary, well it’s been a whole lot easier for opposing Receivers when Minnesota is on the road. Marquise Brown should absolutely be in your lineups this week.
WR Sit: Brandin Cooks at Miami
This is a risky pick because Cooks is killing it this year, but I wanted to give the PSA anyways: Miami looks like a great matchup, but that’s a trap. Miami is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing Receivers when playing on the road, at home they’re allowing the 6th fewest.
TE Record: 12-4
TE Start: Mike Gesicki vs Houston
Houston has two big weaknesses in fantasy land, Running Backs and Tight Ends (Quarterbacks slightly too, but I’m trying to make a point). Since Miami likes to throw the ball a lot and ignore their run game I’d expect Gesicki to have every opportunity to take advantage of this matchup.
TE Sit: Zach Ertz at San Francisco
San Fran is allowing the second least amount of points to Tight Ends when at home. They’re also allowing the 11th most to Receivers at home, so I’d expect to see more of Hopkins, Moore, Kirk, and yes, A.J. Green, and less of Ertz this week.
K Record: 8-8
K Start: Chris Boswell vs Chicago or Michael Badgley vs NY Jets
Boswell has had a solid season, and has a great matchup in week 9. However, if he is unable to play due to the concussion then my pick is Badgley who also has a great matchup.
K Sit: Younghoe Koo at New Orleans
In the Saints’ “three” home games this year they’ve allowed an average of 5 points (rounded up) to Kickers. It’s safe to drop Koo this week and find a replacement.
Defense Record: 8-8
Defense Start: New England Patriots at Carolina
Darnold’s been struggling lately and Belichick knows how to make things worse for Darnold.
Defense Sit: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati
The Bengals have been fantastic, even in their shocking loss to the Jets last week the offense still posted 31 points. In six out of their eight games opposing defenses have scored 5 or less points against them in fantasy.
