Lance's 2022 Division Predictions
AFC East
The Incumbent: Buffalo Bills
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
If Zach Wilson and Mac Jones were a little further along, or if Miami’s offense already had a season of working together under their belt there would be a reason to doubt Buffalo taking the East once again. The loss of Brian Daboll is a factor that can’t go overlooked. We know where Josh Allen started out in his career and we’ve all seen what Daboll was able to do for him. Can Ken Dorsey help him stay on that path? I don’t think it will matter much this season, the team is too talented with too much continuity to get knocked off the top of the division.
Biggest Threat: New York Jets
Call me crazy, I’m sure Jets fans will call me worse than that if I get their hopes up and the team flops once again, but I have high hopes for this team, like sliding into the playoffs kind of high hopes. Saleh has plenty of talent on the defense now with the additions of D.J. Reed, Jordan Whitehead, Ahmad Gardner and Jermaine Johnson to go with a healthy Carl Lawson. They also added more talent to the offense, and Wilson is heading into his second season.
AFC North
The Incumbent: Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are going back to their roots. They drafted two additional Tight Ends and traded away Marquise Brown which signals to me they are going to once again be a run heavy team. They also added Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton on the back end, and brought Michael Pierce back. As long as they avoid the injury bug this season they have the makings of the classic “bruise‘em” Ravens we used to see. I think that’s enough to take the AFC North, I don’t think it’ll be enough to make a run to the Super Bowl.
Biggest Threat: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy has a very talented team, but there are still holes. Such as the secondary they are going to try and patch with a couple rookies. I like Dax Hill as a slot Corner, I’m not sold on Cam Taylor-Britt as a starter on the outside, and I don’t think they have a solid CB2 at this point. They made much better moves to address their Offensive Line, but it’s important to remember that the O-Line as a group typically needs time to gel in the NFL. I think Cincy is going to have their struggles early on, then get it figured out down the stretch, but at that point it'll be too late to win their second AFC North crown in a row.
AFC South
The Incumbent: Tennessee Titans
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have the defense, the run game and now they have a solid Quarterback. Matt Ryan may not be the kind of passer that does it all on his own, but he can get you the wins when he has the talent around him to do so. This was the perfect situation for him, and he’s the right guy to get Indy back into the playoffs.
Biggest Threat: Tennessee Titans
The loss of A.J. Brown is going to hurt them, especially after we saw what happened to the offense san-Arthur Smith. Derrick Henry being back will help, but the defense isn’t at the same level as Indy or Baltimore, and in order to be a run-first playoff caliber team in today’s NFL you either need a high-end defense, or a division full of inept teams. Unfortunately, Indy won't be inept this year and I think we're going to see a lot more fight out of Jacksonville this season too.
AFC West
The Incumbent: Kansas City Chiefs
My Pick: Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson was the missing piece. They’ve done a good, steady job of building up the O-Line and the Receivers. This defense has been ready to roll, they’ve just been waiting for a passer that won’t sink the ship and now they have one.
Biggest Threat: Los Angeles Chargers
If you were looking for the Chiefs in either one of these spots then you’ve got Mahomes-goggles. A talented Quarterback can do a lot for you, but when your team is missing important talent and your division is stacked, that QB will only get you so far. The Chargers, like the Broncos, are loaded. Herbert’s running the show for one of the most electric offenses from a year ago. Their defense is what killed them. They couldn’t stop the run if their lives depended on it, so they went out and added Khalil Mack, Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day to their D-Line. If that wasn’t enough, they also added the interception machine that is J.C. Jackson to make it even more difficult to throw on them.
NFC East
The Incumbent: Dallas Cowboys
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The A.J. Brown addition will get most of the headlines and recognition when it comes to Philly being the popular pick to win the NFC East, and I’m not taking anything away from that. I think it will be a major help to Hurts’ growth. However, the reason Philly will take back the East this season will be the additions of Jordan Davis, Kyzir White, Nakobe Dean, Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. This defense has been needing an influx of talent for several seasons and now it has it.
Biggest Threat: Dallas Cowboys
Obviously Dallas is the biggest threat. The Giants and Commanders aren’t talented enough offensively to give Dallas or Philly a run for their money. But for those who think Dallas’ defense is the cream of the crop and should get them back to the top again I ask because they had all the flashy stats a year ago? My primary example is Trevon Diggs. He had 11 picks last season, people loved it, but if you were paying attention you would have noticed that when he wasn’t intercepting the ball he was giving up a big play. Diggs allowed 54 catches for 907 yards (that’s 16.8 YPR). By comparison I’ll use another interception machine, J.C. Jackson, who allowed 52 catches for 658 yards (12.7 YPR). Your CB1 allowing that kind of yardage will come back to bite you. The losses of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson also won’t go unnoticed.
NFC North
The Incumbent: Green Bay Packers
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
I do believe the Packers are about to come back down to Earth a bit and the door will actually be open for their NFC North rivals. I don’t believe the losses they suffered this offseason will cost them the division though, mainly because those same rivals have bigger question marks at their own position groups.
Biggest Threat: Minnesota Vikings
I was tempted to put Detroit, but they’re probably still a year or two away from competing for the division title. Minnesota has the firepower to make a real run, but I see their defense as potentially being a problem child once again. Specifically their secondary, which I don’t think was properly addressed this offseason (see my draft grades for my thoughts on Booth). A healthy Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith could help cover that up though. So, Vikings fans (myself included), there definitely is hope.
NFC South
The Incumbent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa gets the edge over the Saints because Brady and most of the rest of the team is back. They’ll need Russel Gage and another Receiver to step up while Godwin recovers, and they’ll need Cameron Brate, Joe Tryon and first round pick Logan Hall to step in for Gronk, JPP and Suh, but this team is basically taking the Alabama approach, next man up.
Biggest Threat: New Orleans Saints
Winston was having a good season last year before the injury. With him back at 100% and a much improved receiving corps made up of Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, this offense is ready to rock. Potentially not having Kamara for the first six weeks could hurt their prospects to open the year, but the talent is all there for a run back to the playoffs.
NFC West
The Incumbent: Los Angeles Rams
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams
The reigning Super Bowl champs have some areas of concern, but they’re few and far between. Stafford should be in for another big year with the addition of Allen Robinson helping him get there. The pass rush may need some additional help with Von Miller gone, and they’ll need one of their young Corners to step up opposite Ramsey, but those areas can be covered up by Aaron Donald’s sheer force of will.
Biggest Threat: Arizona Cardinals
Seattle is going to be fighting for a top five pick, that’s my 100% unbiased take on the Seahawks outlook if they decide to use Lock or Smith under Center this season. I find it hard to put faith in San Fran with the uncertainty surrounding Trey Lance, who I am a big fan of, but who also has had some pretty negative reports about him based on some early offseason practices. That leaves Arizona who has their own problems such as DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension and Kyler Murray’s ego. The addition of Marquise Brown will help while Hopkins misses time, but in order for this team to not fall apart they’ll need Murray to focus on playing rather than money. Their defense is also a concern and is the primary reason I don’t think they’ll be able to unseat the Rams.
