Lance's 2022 NFL Season Predictions
Here it is folks, your 2022-23 Super Bowl featuring for the first time in league history a rookie Quarterback. Checks Notes my mistake, TWO rookie Quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder both started out their seasons in similar fashion: lost the starting jobs in preseason, though they probably should've been named the starters, and then took over under Center after their teams each started out 0-3. Pickett went on to win 12 of Pitt's final 14 games, while Ridder won 10 of Atlanta's final 14. And then in the playoffs they got really hot. Pickett threw for over 350 yards in each game on his way to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Ridder ran for over 100 yards in each game while also throwing for 200+.
Then the big game rolled around where we saw each gunslinger at each other's throats. Back and forth they marched down the field, touchdown after touchdown, there was no defense to be found. Until the final drive when another rookie, Arnold Ebiketie, came up with what will be the biggest strip sack of his career, handing Atlanta their first ever Super Bowl win...
Of course that is all completely made up. You’ll find my actual predictions below:
Super Bowl Prediction
Denver over Philadelphia
Reason: Philly has talent across the board, and even at those times when Hurts struggles the rest of the team will be able to pick up the slack. They have a real shot at the #1 seed, which would go a long ways in the playoffs. And in a down year for the NFC they have the talent to run the show. The AFC West is going to be the most hardened division by the time the playoffs role around. Each one of the teams in the division has a real case to be the favorite, but I think it will come down to Denver and the Chargers, with my edge going to Denver. Regardless the winner of the division will have suffered enough losses to end up as the 3 or 4 seed, so their road to the Super Bowl will be more difficult, but that's where the difficulty of their division comes into play. They'll be ready for the playoffs and any team that stands in their way. Russell Wilson gets his new team a ring in year one and everyone across the league takes notice because his supporting cast is still decently young and he's got at least 4 more seasons in him after this.
Super Bowl I Would Love To See
Indianapolis vs Detroit
Reason: A redemption arc always makes for a great story…TWO redemption arcs would be incredibly intriguing. I am of course referring to Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, two guys who got to the precipice of football glory and fell short. Ryan’s chances of getting there again are higher thanks to the talent on his team, but the AFC is way more loaded. Detroit’s made some exciting moves this offseason that could make them a ninja team (i.e. sneaky and dangerous), though it’s unlikely they make the playoffs even in a shaky NFC. Still, this would be a Super Bowl I would thoroughly enjoy.
AWARDS
MVP Prediction
My Pick: QB Russell Wilson (Denver)
Why: I know I’ve picked Wilson to take this home before, but I firmly believe this is the best position he’s been in since he entered the league. He has all the weapons, he has a solid offensive line, and he’s a lot better off as a passer at this point in his career than he was back when he won a Super Bowl.
Biggest Competition: QB Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia)
Why: I thought about going with Stafford or Brady, but I think Hurts poses the biggest threat. He’s a dual threat who threw for over 3,100 yards last year and ran for close to 800. A second legitimate Receiver on the outside should help lift up his passing stats even more, and the cherry on top is the potential win total Philly could finish with.
Dark Horse: QB Zach Wilson (NY Jets)
Why: Talk about your dark horse right? Typically I like to put a player from a different position here because in reality this is the best QB award and so a Running Back or Receiver winning it would be a big surprise in today’s game. A second-year Quarterback who threw 9 touchdowns to 11 picks as a rookie and plays for a team that’s been at or toward the bottom for the better part of a decade struck me as a better dark horse candidate. I like the reports I’ve been hearing and I love that the Jets added Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin to alleviate some of the pressure on the young passer.
Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: RB J.K. Dobbins (Baltimore)
Why: There’s two things to note here. First, Dobbins may have been hurt all last season, but he averaged 6 yards a carry his rookie year. Second, Baltimore’s offseason moves leads me to believe they are going to force themselves to go back to their run heavy ways. Get ready to judge me even harder…I could see Dobbins eclipsing the 2,000 yard mark on the ground.
Biggest Competition: TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City)
Why: Kelce is in line for an even bigger workload than we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see him beat out his best season, which was 105 receptions, 1416 yards (most by a Tight End ever) and 11 touchdowns. Keep in mind the most receptions by a Tight End ever is 116 and the most touchdowns was 18. If he beats one or two of those as well as his yardage mark he’ll be in this discussion.
Dark Horse: RB James Cook (Buffalo)
Why: This might be a little confusing because I don’t list Cook in any of the three spots for OROY below, but that’s why it’s a dark horse pick! MVP goes to QBs, non-QBs that offer up a multi-faceted game typically have the best shot at OPOY. Cook is going to be used on the ground and through the air for a Buffalo offense that should dominate. The fact that he’s a rookie makes him a dark horse for this award.
Defensive Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: Edge Joey Bosa (LA Chargers)
Why: This Bosa brother has always seemed on the verge of being a premier Edge Rusher, but unable to get over the hump. All due respect to Melvin Ingram, he’s also never had someone of Khalil Mack’s caliber drawing attention on the opposite side. This is the best defensive unit Bosa has been a part of, which is why I think he ends up as the sack king for 2022.
Biggest Competition: DT Aaron Donald (LA Rams)
Why: T.J. Watt is the reigning DPOY, but with how bad I think Pitt will do this year I don’t see him ending up as a front-runner for the award this season. On the other hand, I don’t know that we’ll ever not view Donald as the main competition for this award until he retires.
Dark Horse: Edge Maxx Crosby (Las Vegas)
Why: Crosby has posted 25 sacks in his first three seasons. But the stats I’m looking at that make me see Crosby as a legitimate DPOY threat this year are Pressures and QB Knockdowns. Crosby had 42 pressures which tied him for 9th last year, and he had 19 knockdowns which led the league. Imagine what kind of sack production those two stats could turn into in 2022 with Chandler Jones now manning the opposite edge.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
My Pick: RB Breece Hall (NY Jets)
Why: He was my top rated RB in the draft (as was he for basically everyone), he was the first one off the board, and he’s pretty much guaranteed 200+ touches barring injury or inefficient play. High volume is something only a handful of offensive rookies see each season, so if you’re betting on a winner for OROY you should be putting that money on the guy with the best chance to see the ball a lot.
Biggest Competition: QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
Why: Of course the biggest competition is going to be the QB with the most direct line to starting early as a rookie. Pitt has lots of players for Pickett to throw to, it's just a question of how long will we have to wait to see him starting under Center.
Dark Horse: WR Romeo Doubs (Green Bay)
Why: Out of all of the Receivers the Packers took this draft, I had the highest grade on Doubs. He actually had my second highest grade of any Receiver in the draft. He’s in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense with the WR1 spot up for grabs and by all accounts he’s been impressing through practices so far. Bonus, he can also return punts.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
My Pick: Edge Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit)
Why: #2 pick in the draft, #1 player on just about everyone’s board, and a guaranteed starter on a defense desperate for a superstar to hang their hats on. Hutchinson will get the flashy sack stats, but his impact will be greater than that and I think that’s where he allows himself to run away with the 2022 DROY award.
Biggest Competition: S Kyle Hamilton (Baltimore)
Why: Obviously for many others the top names will be Hutchinson, Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but I think Hamilton is in the best position to give a guy like Hutchinson a run for his money. Baltimore’s defense has enough talent to allow Hamilton to move around freely without being the primary focus for opponents. Plus, Safety is a position that allows for lots of statistical output in a bunch of different areas.
Dark Horse: LB Troy Andersen (Atlanta)
Why: Imagine a player that tallies 146 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 picks and 7 pass breakups. Now imagine that player is 6’4”, 240 pounds and runs a 4.42 forty. That’s Troy Andersen and the stats he tallied in his final collegiate season. Foye Oluokun just had back to back 100+ tackle seasons, which culminated in his 192 monster of a season last year. Oluokun is now in Jacksonville and I believe Andersen is Atlanta’s answer to fill that void he left behind.
Comeback Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: RB J.K. Dobbins (Baltimore)
Why: I listed him as my OPOY pick and he was hurt all last year, so it seems obvious that he would also be my CPOY pick.
Biggest Competition: WR Michael Thomas (New Orleans)
Why: Lots of talented players to choose from for this, but I’ll take MT over CMC and King Henry. Thomas is a reception machine. He may not average an absurd amount on his catches, but 10 yards on 100 catches is still 1,000 yards. His career average is 11.7 YPR, and 7.3 receptions a game, which averages out to 124 receptions and 1,449 yards over a 17 game season.
Dark Horse: CB Marcus Peters (Baltimore)
Why: Regardless of what J.C. Jackson has done over the last three seasons, and what Trevon Diggs did last season, Peters is the interception king. He’s tied for the second most among active players (basically first since Richard Sherman has one foot out the door). Sherman has 37, and Devin McCourty has 31 just like Peters. Mind you Sherman has been in the league four years longer than Peters and McCourty’s been in for five years longer. Interceptions are a fun stat, one that catches the eyes of a voter, and Peters will be returning to a pretty stacked secondary, so opposing QBs can’t just avoid his side of the field.
Coach of the Year Prediction
My Pick: Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia)
Why: If Philly’s new additions really do help push them to the top of the NFC East then they’ll most likely be in line for the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC since their division isn’t exactly difficult and neither is their schedule overall. A bunch of wins for Sirianni in his second season after the Eagles went 4-11-1 just two years ago would definitely push him to the top of the COY race.
Biggest Competition: Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay)
Why: On the one hand, Bowles is taking over a very successful Bucs team that’s led by Tom Brady, so there’s not really a wow factor there. On the other hand, this is his first season back at the helm in four years, and his last three seasons as a head coach resulted in a 14-34 record. Basically, you have a down and out coach in the perfect position to return to the spotlight and that won’t go unnoticed regardless of who his QB is, or how well his team did the last two years.
Dark Horse: Robert Saleh (NY Jets)
Why: The team is very young, but the talent is all there. If I’m right, if Saleh and his staff get the rookies and second year guys ready to go and the Jets make the playoffs, then Saleh will run away with the voting for this award.
