Lance's 2022 Week 15 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 112-79-2
Overall ATS: 5-8
*The spreads I've listed are from Tuesday when they were posted*
San Francisco over Seattle (ATS: SF -3.5)
Purdy is a stud. That may be a bit of an early over-reaction, but he does have potential. Seattle is coming back down to Earth, and the Niners defense has been an unstoppable force.
Minnesota over Indianapolis (ATS: IND +4)
Minnesota is going to be looking for a big bounce-back game. Their defense is pretty terrible, so they won't get the dominant blowout win they want, but they should be able to take down the struggling Colts.
Baltimore over Cleveland (ATS: BAL +3)
Jackson may or may not be back this week, but it doesn't really matter. Baltimore's defense has allowed 23 total points over the last two weeks and they've only allowed one team to score more than 14 in their last five games. Watson's clearly still working off the rust, so give me the Ravens.
Buffalo over Miami (ATS: MIA +7.5)
It's supposed to be high 20s, low 30s and could be snowing at game time. That doesn't bode well for MIAMI players, but it does figure to keep the score relatively in check especially if the two teams focus on running the ball to avoid turnovers.
Atlanta over New Orleans (ATS: ATL +4)
Ridder has been named the starter for Atlanta, and that brings an element of surprise working on Atlanta's side. The Saints won't have a lot of tape to work from on Ridder, and I think that will give the Falcons the edge in this rematch.
Philadelphia over Chicago (ATS: PHI -9)
The Eagles continue to get these crazy high point spreads and they still manage to cover. The fact that this one isn't -13 or something like that makes it even more likely they'll take care of business.
Detroit over NY Jets (ATS: DET +1)
Tough call, but the Lions are playing so well right now it's hard to pick against them.
Carolina over Pittsburgh (ATS: CAR -2.5)
The Panthers are fighting hard right now. They've won 3 of their last 4 and the one loss was a low scoring affair against the Ravens. I believe they'll put the nail in Pitt's first losing season in the Mike Tomlin era.
Dallas over Jacksonville (ATS: JAX +4.5)
Like last week, I think this is going to be a very close game, but I think Dallas just finds a way to win at the end.
Kansas City over Houston (ATS: HOU +14)
Similar to Philly, KC keeps getting crazy high point-spreads. Unlike Philly, the Chiefs tend not to cover. Houston gets wrecked in nearly every facet of the game, but they still manage to lose by 13 or less.
Denver over Arizona (ATS: DEN -2.5)
Regardless of whether or not this ends up being a battle of the backup QBs, Denver's defense will bring home the win.
New England over Las Vegas (ATS: NE -1)
Vegas has looked completely out of sorts. If I felt like they could keep it together and the offense would play like they did against Seattle three weeks ago, then I would be picking them. But I don't see that happening, so the edge goes to the Pats.
LA Chargers over Tennessee (ATS: LAC -2.5)
We just watched the Titans get picked apart by Trevor Lawrence because their pass defense is absolutely awful. Herbert's about to have his best game of the season.
Cincinnati over Tampa Bay (ATS: CIN -3.5)
By my numbers and formulas, Tampa has the better chance of winning this game, or at least covering against the spread. But when you look at the way these two teams are playing it's clear Cincy is the better team and should be able to rip through the Bucs.
Washington over NY Giants (ATS: NYG +4.5)
I think the Giants keep this divisional game close, but they're a banged up unit that's been struggling, while Washington has been relatively healthy and playing good football. I'm taking the Commanders by 3.
Green Bay over LA Rams (ATS: LAR +7)
It's currently projected to be a gross day weather-wise in Green Bay (no surprise, it's Wisconsin in December). So like Buffalo, this means two things: expect the score to stay low, and expect the warm weather Rams to struggle enough in the cold weather that they aren't able to pull out the upset. Mayfield is a wildcard though, he did spend three seasons in Cleveland.
Four Game Parlay: I'm still pretty early on in figuring all this ATS betting out, but if I were to put money down on a four game parlay it would be Miami +7.5, the Rams +7, the Chargers -2.5 (they're -3 with some sites), and the Giants +4.5. I'm a little uneasy about the Giants since they have been dealing with injuries and their play has dropped off, so if you don't like them as your fourth go with the Bengals -3.5.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 18-8
QB Start: Desmond Ridder at New Orleans
Can't take Mike White now, and I don't trust Zach Wilson, so I'm switching gears to Ridder. I know, it's his first game, but the Saints have struggled against mobile QBs. Back in week 9 Lamar Jackson had 82 yards rushing, the following week Pickett had 51 and a score, and a few weeks ago Bryce Perkins had 39 when he stepped in for an injured Stafford. Ridder can run the ball well, so he's worth a flier this week if you're desperate.
QB Sit: Justin Fields vs Philadelphia
Philly hasn't let a QB cross the 20-point threshold in fantasy this season. They also practice against a running QB all the time, so Fields won't even have that edge going for him.
RB Record: 12-14
RB Start: Cam Akers at Green Bay
Akers has carried the ball 29 times over the last two weeks. Plus, Green Bay has been consistently wrecked on the ground all season.
RB Sit: Kenneth Walker III vs San Francisco
I've got Walker in all of my leagues and it hurts me to list him here, but San Fran has been the stingiest defense against RBs in fantasy, and who knows how good Walker's ankle is actually doing.
WR Record: 13-13
WR Start: Parris Campbell at Minnesota
Since week 6 he and Ryan have been on the field together in 6 games, Campbell has averaged 7.7 targets in those games. This is a ripe matchup for him, one that should force Indy to throw the ball a lot, and considering Minnesota allowed FOUR Receivers to get to double-digits in fantasy last week, that makes Campbell a borderline must-start.
WR Sit: Amari Cooper vs Baltimore
He's seen plenty of targets (16) over the last two weeks, but he's only caught 6, which tells me either he and Watson haven't gotten in sync yet, or the hip injury is bothering him worse than he's really letting on. Add in a chance for poor weather and Cooper should remain on your bench this week.
TE Record: 11-15
TE Start: Greg Dulcich vs Arizona
Hunter Henry had 70 yards on Arizona last week, he hadn't hit 70 all season prior to that, which further proves how bad the Cards have been against TEs this year. Dulcich has done what you would expect most rookie TEs to do (up and down play), but he's had 16 targets over the last two weeks, and there's a chance Rypien has to start under Center which would make Dulcich his quick and easy outlet.
TE Sit: Evan Engram vs Dallas
He's had back to back really good weeks against two defenses that haven't been good at covering Tight Ends this season. Dallas has been very good at shutting the position down, so don't bank on Engram this week.
Defense Record: 15-11
Defense Start: Denver Broncos vs Arizona
Denver's defense has been phenomenal this season, but the offense has managed to keep their fantasy potential in check most weeks. With Murray out, Denver has a good chance at keeping Arizona's offense in check, even if their own offense sets them up in bad field position.
Defense Sit: Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville
Call it a bit of a gut feeling, but Jacksonville has been pretty solid offensively this season. It's also a home game for the Jags, and after last week's performance they have some momentum going for them.
