Lance's 2022 Week 16 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Overall Record: 122-85-2
Overall ATS: 16-13 (11-5 last week)
Note: From here on out I'm going to be using the spreads given by DraftKings first thing Tuesday, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.
Jacksonville over NY Jets (ATS: Jacksonville +1)
Zach Wilson is back under Center and the Jags are hot right now, a perfect combo in Jacksonville's favor.
Baltimore over Atlanta (ATS: Atlanta +7.5)
Despite their record, Baltimore hasn't been on their game for several weeks now, a stretch that precedes Jackson's injury. I think Atlanta will cover that big of a spread, but won't be able to overcome the stronger Ravens team.
Detroit over Carolina (ATS: Detroit -2.5)
I can't believe they only made Detroit 2.5 point favorites. This is the same Panthers team we just saw lose by 8 to Pittsburgh at home, so I feel pretty comfortable saying that's a number the Lions should be able to easily cover in a win.
Buffalo over Chicago (ATS: Chicago +9)
No question Buffalo is the better team, and provided they don't get caught looking ahead, they should win easily enough. It's the spread that's difficult to predict, because it's so big, and also because neither team has done particularly well against the spread this season. That's a lot of points though, so I'm siding with home team.
Cleveland over New Orleans (ATS: Cleveland -3)
I wouldn't recommend betting on this one unless the spread is 2.5 or less cause I see Cleveland winning this by a field goal.
Kansas City over Seattle (ATS: Seattle +9.5)
Like I said last week, Kansas City has done a poor job of covering the spread, and then they went out and barely beat the Texans. Seattle should be able to keep the ball moving through the air and keep it close, but in the end the Chiefs and Mahomes are too talented for the Seahawks to overcome.
NY Giants over Minnesota (ATS: NY Giants +3.5)
By the numbers the Giants should cover the spread and more often than not at this number that results in a win. They're a tough team, and the Vikings are coming off an emotional win.
Cincinnati over New England (ATS: Cincinnati -3.5)
I don't know what to expect out of the Pats after that game last week (which ended up being one of my 5 ATS losses, thanks replay officials, and thanks a lot Stevenson/Meyers), but the Bengals are rolling, so I'm sticking with Cincy. Also, Cincy is 11-3 ATS per CBS.
Houston over Tennessee (ATS: Houston +7)
Houston has been so close to two major upsets in the last two weeks. They're playing spoiler to the max and at the very least should be able to cover the spread. I'm taking them to win because of how tough they've been playing and how lax the Titans have been.
San Francisco over Washington (ATS: San Francisco -7)
Washington has been good, but the Niners have been great, particularly on defense. I think Washington's going to struggle to score points, which is why I have the Niners winning and covering.
Dallas over Philadelphia (ATS: Dallas -6)
Hurts is out, which makes it all the more likely the Cowboys win by enough to cover the spread. On top of that, my numbers favor their chances. But don't go putting all your money on them. They have not looked good the last two weeks, and a backup QB brings out a shaky variable that can render the best of teams inept.
Pittsburgh over Las Vegas (ATS: Pittsburgh -2.5)
Not a game I'd bet on. My numbers only slightly favor Pitt, and I'm sticking with it because they're at home (Vegas is 2-6 on the road).
Miami over Green Bay (ATS: Miami -5.5)
Remember at the beginning of last season when the Saints home game against the Packers had to be moved, and they chose Jacksonville as their location because Rodgers plays poorly in the state of Florida (3-4 in Florida with a 78.1 Passer Rating prior to that game)? And then the Packers went out and got thumped 38-3 while Rodgers threw 2 picks and finished with a 36.8 passer rating? If you don't remember it then there's my reasoning for taking Miami.
Denver over LA Rams (ATS: Denver +1)
Mayfield is turnover prone, and the Broncos defense is more than good enough to take advantage of that. Just look at their performance this past week.
Tampa Bay over Arizona (ATS: Tampa Bay -6)
With the Colt McCoy news and the fact that McSorley is starting I'm switching my ATS pick to Tampa as well. Though I would urge caution on betting just because Tampa has been so bad against the spread this year.
Indianapolis over LA Chargers (ATS: Indianapolis +4)
My numbers pretty heavily favor Indy to win. To be fair, the Chargers have been the most disappointing 8-6 team this season. They're basically on upset watch every week. After that embarrassing loss last week, I'd want to come out and make a statement if I were Indy.
Four Game Parlay (0-1): I was one game shy of hitting on the parlay last week, dang Rams just needed one more touchdown. My four for this week starting with the team I'm most confident in down to the least: Seattle +9.5, Detroit -2.5, Jacksonville +1, and Miami -5.5. (I'd recommend placing this bet through FanDuel to avoid a potential push with the Jags, they have Seattle +9.5, Detroit -2.5, Jacksonville -1.5, and Miami -4.5).
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 18-10
QB Start: Geno Smith at Kansas City
Geno has been a solid starter for fantasy teams that lost their starter early in the year, or that drafted poorly. Last week was bad, but he was going against San Fran. KC is top five in points allowed to QBs in fantasy, so Geno should be able to get back on track. (Side note: with Lockett out this week, Marquise Goodwin is absolutely a starting option at Receiver)
QB Sit: Dak Prescott vs Philadelphia
Have you seen his past several performances? He did get over the 20 point mark in fantasy last week, but it was an ugly 22 points against an easy pass defense. Hurts' injury doesn't effect Philly's secondary, sit Prescott.
RB Record: 14-14
RB Start: Zack Moss vs LA Chargers
A continuation of the "Chargers run defense is awfully terrible!" With Taylor done for the year, Moss and Deon Jackson are both decent waiver adds right now with two pretty solid matchups to close out the fantasy season. Moss had 24 carries last week, and if the Colts lean on their run game to take advantage of a major weak point with the Chargers, then he should be in for a big game.
RB Sit: D'Onta Foreman vs Detroit
The Lions have allowed 172 rushing yards TOTAL over the last three weeks, that's an average of 57.3 per game. This is not the week to get cute and think Foreman will get you to the next round cause "it's Detroit."
WR Record: 14-14
WR Start: Darius Slayton at Minnesota
I mentioned Marquise Goodwin as a footnote in the area below Geno Smith's name because I try my best not to include multiple players from the same team. Slayton is another good option. He continues to be the primary Receiver in the Giants offense. That may not have resulted in big numbers the last two weeks, but those matchups weren't as great as this one.
WR Sit: Terry McLaurin at San Francisco
McLaurin has had another solid season, but he's also had a few quiet fantasy outings. This should be another one since it's tough to perform as a Receiver when your QB is constantly under attack.
TE Record: 11-17
TE Start: Tyler Conklin vs Jacksonville
A risky pick because he's been all over the board this season, but it's a great matchup, Wilson has liked his Tight Ends this season, and it should be Conklin's turn this week right?
TE Sit: David Njoku vs New Orleans
The Saints have allowed two Tight Ends to score over 7 points in fantasy this season. Add in the struggles Watson has had and Njoku's knee issue and he becomes a flat out sit this week.
Defense Record: 17-11
Defense Start: Denver Broncos at LA Rams
I picked them last week and it worked out well. I'm sticking with them for another great matchup against a turnover friendly unit.
Defense Sit: New England Patriots vs Cincinnati
The Bengals have scored 21+ points in five of their last 6 games, that 6th game they put up 20, and in three of those five they scored 34+. They've only allowed 1-2 sacks/game in that stretch, and turned the ball over just 4 times in those games. In other words, don't bank on the Pats getting the job done for you this week.
