Lance's 2022 Week 17 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Overall Record: 132-91-2

Overall ATS: 22-22 (6-9 with 1 push last week)
Note: I'm using the spreads given by DraftKings first thing Tuesday, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Dallas over Tennessee (ATS: Tennessee +10.5)
10.5 points is a lot to try and cover and Dallas hasn't done a particularly good job at covering those high numbers. They have, however, done a solid job of getting the win in hard fought games.

Arizona over Atlanta (ATS: Arizona +4)
Arizona almost pulled off the upset against Tampa last week with their third string QB. Their defense is playing much better football lately, while Atlanta's defense has still been a huge letdown.

Detroit over Chicago (ATS: Chicago +6)
Divisional games are typically tough matchups and after watching what happened to Detroit last week, I don't know that they'll be able to blow Chicago out of the water. Having said that, they've done a good job bouncing back in the second half of this year, and I think they'll do it again this week.

Jacksonville over Houston (ATS: Houston +4)
I think Houston puts up a fight once again and loses by 2 or 3 points (in doing so they hang onto the #1 pick). Still, I wouldn't bet on this one unless you can find someone giving Houston +4.5.

Kansas City over Denver (ATS: Kansas City -13.5)
Did everyone else see Denver get absolutely wrecked by the Rams last week? I know what they did to the Chiefs a few weeks ago in Denver, but this one is in K.C. and the Chiefs are hunting for the #1 seed.

Miami over New England (ATS: Miami +2.5)
Whether Tua plays or not the odds still favor Miami. They have all the firepower and the Pats offense just continues to struggle.

NY Giants over Indianapolis (ATS: NY Giants -5.5)
Technically my system favors Indy to cover and win, but it did last week too and Foles threw three picks and sank all hopes of that happening. I'm taking the Giants to officially lock up a playoff spot.

Philadelphia over New Orleans (ATS: Philadelphia -7)
Minshew came out firing last week and almost led Philly to the upset over Dallas, they should be able to take care of business against the hot and cold Saints that have been bad on the road this season.

Carolina over Tampa Bay (ATS: Carolina +3)
My system slightly favors Carolina to pull this one out. Having seen both of these teams play this year I have to agree with the numbers. The Panthers have been aggressive under Wilks, winning games they probably had no business being in. The Bucs have looked like a miserable train wreck that's pulled off a few late game comebacks against bad teams in order to keep themselves afloat.

Washington over Cleveland (ATS: Washington -2.5)
The switch to Wentz didn't have any sway over this. Unless Watson finds his old form this week the Commanders should be able to pull this off.

San Francisco over Las Vegas (ATS: San Francisco -10)
With the Jarrett Stidham news I have changed my ATS pick, Vegas is about to get wrecked.

NY Jets over Seattle (ATS: NY Jets -2)
Mike White is supposed to be back under Center, so the offense should rejoin the defense as actual threats. The Seahawks have been trending back to what we expected to see at the beginning of the season.

Minnesota over Green Bay (ATS: Minnesota +3)
Minnesota is the underdog and my guess is its a mix of this game being in Green Bay and everyone losing their minds because "Aaron Rodgers has won three in a row" *over the Rams, the Bears, and the Dolphins with a banged up Tua*. The asterisks seemed necessary. The Vikings manhandled Green Bay at the beginning of the year, this one should be closer, but they still get the job done.

LA Chargers over LA Rams (ATS: LA Rams +6.5)
The Rams just dropped 51 points on a Broncos defense that had allowed an average of 18.1 PPG prior to last week with a high of 34 allowed on the year. Maybe it was a fluke, maybe the Rams are about to give the Chargers a run for their money by heavily involving Akers once again.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh (ATS: Pittsburgh +3)
I wouldn't bet on this one unless you find someone giving Pitt +3.5, I think Baltimore wins this hard fought divisional rivalry game by a Field Goal.

Cincinnati over Buffalo (ATS: Cincinnati +1.5)
My system actually has this game at 50/50, which tends to favor the home team. Both defenses can be beat, so barring crazy weather I would expect a high scoring game with the home team having the slight advantage in my eyes.

Four Game Parlay (0-2): Last week was a bust. This week I'm suggesting you use FanDuel for a parlay and bet on Tennessee +10.5, Chicago +5.5, LA Rams +6.5 and San Francisco -10.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based on if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 18-12

QB Start: Jared Goff vs Chicago
Championship weekend! If you've made it this far then I doubt you've spent much time in these kinds of articles. But in the event you are dealing with an injury (such as Tua?) I've got a suggestion for each position for you. Goff has three 20+ point games in his last four starts and the Bears have allowed back to back big games to opposing QBs, not to mention a 24 point game to Mike White back in week 12.

QB Sit: Trevor Lawrence at Houston
Lawrence has been phenomenal lately, but the Texans have allowed just three QBs to score 20+ on them this season: Mahomes, Hurts and Herbert. It'd be best to go a different direction if you can.

RB Record: 14-16

RB Start: Cam Akers at LA Chargers
Had Indy not fallen as far behind as they did, Moss would've had a bigger game last week. I think the Rams will hang in there, so there's a good chance Akers doubles down on that HUGE performance he had last week.

RB Sit: Josh Jacobs vs San Francisco
There's a decent chance Jacobs carried you to a title game, but last week wasn't a fluke. We've seen Jacobs hit lower lows before and San Fran's run defense is way more formidable than Pitt's.

WR Record: 14-16

WR Start: Christian Watson vs Minnesota
If you've caught a Packers game in the last oh five or so weeks, then you've seen the dropped pass from Watson on the first play of the season against the Vikings. I'd expect him to do something to erase that memory from peoples minds this time around. If he's unable to go, Romeo Doubs would take over as my start.

WR Sit: Treylon Burks vs Dallas
The matchup is green, meaning Dallas is top ten in points allowed to WRs in fantasy this season. That's usually what you want, but I'm not trusting Burks with Willis in the lineup.

TE Record: 12-18

TE Start: Cole Kmet at Detroit
He hasn't done a lot over his last five games (except week 13), but he continues to see a good amount of targets. That should bode well for him this week with Detroit top five in points allowed to Tight Ends this year.

TE Sit: Dallas Goedert vs New Orleans
His three targets last week weren't promising, neither is the fact New Orleans has allowed the lowest amount of fantasy points to the position this year.

Defense Record: 17-13

Defense Start: New York Giants vs Indianapolis
It's forecasted to be an ugly weather game and the Colts are in complete disarray. Go grab the Giants!

Defense Sit: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati
Buffalo hasn't been the consistent presence you would expect from the top drafted defense in fantasy this year. This seems like one of those weeks you can expect 5 or less out of them.