Lance's 2023 Division Predictions
AFC East
The Incumbent: Buffalo Bills
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
This won't be a walk in the park. I could easily see the winner of this division ending up as the 4th seed in the AFC. The Dolphins, Jets and Patriots are all capable teams that could split their series with Buffalo. Then add in that Buffalo will have to face Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, the Chargers, and a potentially sneaky good Denver team, and there's a good chance this is Buffalo's worst record since 2019 (when they went 10-6). They still have the best all-around team in the East which is why I'm sticking with them, though that gap is a lot smaller this year.
Biggest Threat: Miami Dolphins
This is a tough division to predict as you can make an argument for all four teams to win it (yes, even the Patriots). Miami is my pick to give the Bills the biggest run for their money. I don't think what we saw out of Rodgers last year was a one off thing. And while I think the Patriots offense will be a lot better this year, I don't believe they're ready to keep up with Miami or Buffalo. I will say that for the Dolphins to have a shot at this division, or to at least prove me right, they will need Tagovailoa to stay healthy all year and that's proven a difficult task.
AFC North
The Incumbent: Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy is stacked. This will remain a difficult division to win, but I still think Cincy takes it with relative ease and ends up with the #1 seed in the AFC. Burrow and company are going to keep doing what they're doing, but I believe many of the new faces on the defensive side will be the key to helping the Bengals remain on top.
Biggest Threat: Cleveland Browns
Baltimore could easily be in this spot, but with a new offensive scheme I think there will be growing pains at the beginning, opening a door for Cleveland to get an early jump on them. I'm all in on Watson finding his old form and leading this team out of the pit they've been in for decades. If that happens they'll need their defense to hit the level we've been expecting them to get to for a few years now in order to compete for the division title with Cincy.
AFC South
The Incumbent: Jacksonville Jaguars
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags retain their title and this year they do it in a more convincing fashion, I believe they'll finish tied for best record in the AFC. This team took a big step forward last year under Pederson and they're primed to do it again. It helps that this division is pretty weak.
Biggest Threat: Houston Texans
This might seem a little crazy, but I like what Houston has already started to build. I don't think they'll get to the playoffs, or double-digit wins, but an 8-9 or 9-8 record isn't out of the question, though I think it's more likely to be 6 or 7 wins. And to make this a little bolder, I'm going to say that second place in the South will be a battle between Houston and Indy, while Tennessee competes for the #1 pick.
AFC West
The Incumbent: Kansas City Chiefs
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Their Tackle situation scares me and I genuinely have my doubts about them winning the West again this year. Mahomes hangs onto the ball for a long time. It often leads to some insane, magical play and that's what makes him who he is. But, as we saw last season, it can lead to him taking big hits and getting banged up. As long as Mahomes is under Center they'll remain a contender; I just worry that their Tackles are going to get Mahomes hurt and this team is not built for running the ball.
Biggest Threat: Denver Broncos
I'm not taking the Chargers because I don't have a ton of faith in Kellen Moore and I don't think that team will go far until they move on from Brandon Staley. I loved Denver prior to last season and was horribly wrong, but with Sean Payton calling the shots that fire is reinvigorated. Denver's defense is still pretty loaded, especially in the secondary, so if Payton can work his magic with the offense this team could shock people.
NFC East
The Incumbent: Philadelphia Eagles
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Barring injuries this is one Super Bowl runner-up that won't deal with the runner-up hangover. They reloaded defensively, and kept almost their entire offensive unit intact. They should be in for another #1 seed.
Biggest Threat: Dallas Cowboys
I think Dallas has another great season and falls one game shy of beating the Eagles out for the division title. Unfortunately that leads to a 5 seed, but that seeding won't hurt them too much when the playoffs roll around. The only thing that can hold them back is Prescott taking another step backwards.
NFC North
The Incumbent: Minnesota Vikings
My Pick: Detroit Lions
I think this division ends in a tie with Detroit getting the edge by finishing with a better division record. The Lions really found their footing last season and it was too bad that their win over Green Bay wasn't one that could've gotten them into the playoffs. This defense is primed for a big leap (unlike Minnesota), and I don't care what the haters think, I believe Goff is in for an even bigger season.
Biggest Threat: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have two reasons why they could win their first back to back division title since 08 and 09. The first reason is Addison/Hockenson. They're going to have to play big in order to take some pressure and coverage away from Justin Jefferson. Hockenson already showed what he can do in this offense and that was just half a season. Addison has the capability to be that high-end WR2 and command coverage his way. It might take a few weeks for defenses to start respecting him, but when they do defensive coordinators better watch out. The second is Brian Flores. The turnaround he did with Miami's mostly barren defense was amazing. This Vikings defense may have less talent than that Miami unit did, but if anyone can get the most out of them it will be Flores. If he can just get this defense to a top 18 finish this team could make some real noise.
NFC South
The Incumbent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
I see the Saints basically running away with this division. The offense is the key to making that happen. First, Carr has to make a near-seamless transition, which I don't think will be a problem. Second, the Offensive Line has to stay healthy. They were really banged up in that area last year and we saw the result. And third, a fully healthy Michael Thomas would give the Saints one of the best Receiver duos in the league and greatly help Carr out.
Biggest Threat: Carolina Panthers
Tampa is on their way to being one of the worst teams in the NFL, and personally I think Atlanta is too. Carolina on the other hand is a sneaky pick to make the playoffs. The O-Line looked much improved last season, and Miles Sanders should help improve their second half of the season run game. But it will all come down to how quickly Reich can get Young ready to go. I could see a 10-win season ahead if Young steps up right away.
NFC West
The Incumbent: San Francisco 49ers
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle was a major shock last season. Then they took that team they ran with and built on it instead of letting it fall apart. Maybe last season for Geno will end up being a newer version of 2007 Derek Anderson. But Seattle did what they could to keep that from being the case including drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. I'm gonna lean into the Geno lane and say he's just getting started. Bonus, this defense looks like it could be top five by the end of the year.
Biggest Threat: San Francisco 49ers
The only reason I didn't stick with them as my pick to win the West is their Quarterback situation. Everyone believes it will be Brock Purdy and things are going to pick up where they left off. The man had a serious elbow injury and his job is to throw the ball. That's not something you just shrug off. If he isn't ready week 1 then it'll either be Trey Lance or Sam Darnold under Center...I find it hilarious that Darnold is even in consideration for that. On the plus side, the Cards and Rams are in for two of the worst seasons in the league this year.
